Monday, June 1, 2020

Daily Market Report 6/1/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few manufacturing reports today, which the first is Markit Manufacturing PMI remained Unchanged at 39.8 in May; and it's counter-part, the ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 41.5% to 43.1% in May.  Below 50 on these indexes mean contraction.  Construction Spending dropped 2.9% in April, which was lower than the 6.8% drop forecasted.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning on the ISM data.  China reported positive manufacturing data on their Caixin index, which showed it just above 50 (expanding territory).  Tensions are growing between the 2, as US is removing Special Status on Hong Kong; and China is pulling back on their purchases of US' Agriculture.  Protests around the US raises more concerns, including a 2nd wave of covid-19.  MBS is Unchanged from Friday's close, and Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as well.  The 25 DMA and 50 DMA are nearly crossing, which is about to force the MBS to move in either direction (higher or lower).  If it rises, then we will see improvements in Mortgage Rates; and the opposite will happen, if it drops.  Yields are facing similar pattern, as it sits just below it's 50 DMA at 0.68%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, May 29, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/29/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Personal Income rose 10.5% in April.  We think this anomaly is due to the disparity based on the lower pay scale employees losing work during the pandemic.  Consumer Spending dropped 13.6% in April, as much of the economy was closed.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) dropped 0.5% in April, while it's YoY dropped from 1.3% to 0.5%; similarly, the Core PCE (which removes food & energy; and Fed's favorite gauge for inflation) dropped 0.4%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.0%.  The Fed's target rate for Core PCE is 2.0%, which this new numbers greatly distances from it.  The manufacturing sector in the Chicago region continued to decline in May, as the Chicago PMI reported it dropping from 35.4 to 32.3.  There wasn't much movement from Consumers, as Consumer Sentiment remained fairly idle.  It rose from 71.8 to 72.3.  Stocks are Down this morning on an upcoming news conference with President Trump, whom will talk about China.  This has investors a bit on edge.  Fed Chair Powell was webcasted this morning, while he did an Q&A at Princeton.  He mentioned that he has plenty of tools to help the economy and isn't currently looking to go into a negative interest rate environment.  MBS is in a very tight range and currently Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates will have a little improvement in pricing this morning.  The president's news conference could be a catalyst to which direction MBS will move, as it's becoming squeezed between it's 25 DMA and 50 DMA.  Yields are down and sitting just atop it's 25 DMA at 0.66%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, May 28, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/28/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims continued the lower trend when it was reported that 2.12 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, which is down from 2.45 million the week prior.  The 2nd look at the Q1 GDP worsened, going from -4.8% to -5.0%.  We'll get our final number for GDP next month.  Durable Goods Orders dropped 17.2% in April; however, when you remove Transportation from the equation, then it dropped 7.4%.  Interruptions in the Housing Market really showed in April, as NAR reported that Pending Home Sales dropped by 21.8%.  This is the biggest decline on record.  Stocks are Up on optimism of the economy reopening; and shrugging off the tensions between US and China.  This euphoria will probably be short-lived, as they realize it will take time for the economy to rebound and the tensions with China are real.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 3bps and just under the 50 DMA.  The 50 DMA is a floor of support, but MBS is running out of room between the 25 DMA and 50 DMA.  If we can get MBS to break above the 25 DMA, then we can see some improvement with Mortgage Rates; however, if it breaks below it's 50 DMA, then we'll see Mortgage Rates worsen.  So far, Mortgage Rates seem to be Unchanged from yesterday.  Yields are facing similar conundrum, as it's Up against it's 50 DMA at 0.70%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/27/20w

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We'll be able to get a better view of the US Economy when the Fed releases their Beige Book around 11am PST today.  This provides a Micro view of each region of the US.  Stocks started the morning off in Positive Territory; however, Technology Stocks started to go into the Red, as tensions continue to mount with China and the concerns with protests in Hong Kong.  This brought the NASDAQ into Negative Territory.  MBS also, started in the Red and just above it's 50 DMA this morning, but has since moved upwards (Up 13bps currently) against it's 25 DMA now.  As the 25- and 50- DMA begin to tighten, the MBS will need to choose which side of the lines it will move.  We'll be watching this very carefully!  Yields have slipped down to 0.67%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/26/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller HPI rose from 4.2% YoY in February to 4.4% in March; however, the FHFA HPI dropped from 6.1% in February to 5.9% in March.  Consumer Confidence began to rise in May, as it went from 85.7 to 86.6.  Also, a bit of a surprising report, is New Home Sales, which went from 619k annualized units in March; with forecasts calling for 480k units in April, but the actual number of annualized units in April rose to 623k.  Stocks are well into Positive Territory this morning, as optimism grows on possible vaccines and data reporting improvement in the economy after states begin to reopen.  However, it's not quite affecting the Markets today, but tensions continue to mount between US and China.  MBS is Down 8bps and is currently sitting just above it's 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  However, there will be a movement coming soon, as both the 25 DMA and 50 DMA begin to squeeze it's movement, which will push MBS in either direction.  This will cause MBS to either improve or worsen.  If they break below the 50 DMA, then there's a lot of room for Mortgage Rates to rise.  Meanwhile, Yields are Up against it's 50 DMA and sitting at 0.70%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, May 22, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/22/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are Down this morning after reflecting on this week's events and heading into a long weekend.  President Trump was asked a question regarding a possible 2nd wave, which he responded that we'll put out fires, but we won't be closing the economy.  MBS is currently Down 2bps, so Mortgage Rates continue to be Unchanged.  Yields are Down to 0.65% and trying to remain above it's 25 DMA.  If it breaks below it, then it could be a good sign to push MBS upwards and see improved pricing in Mortgage Rates.  Fingers crossed!

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, May 21, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/21/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims continued it downward trend in people applying for unemployment benefits, as it dropped from 2.69 million in last week's report to 2.44 million in this week's report.  The Philly Fed improved from -56.6 April to -43.1 in May.  This index reports the activity level of manufacturing in the Philadelphia area.  Meanwhile, Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services) for May.  Markit Manufacturing PMI improved from 36.1 in April to 39.8 in May; and Markit Services PMI improved from 26.7 to 36.9.  These last few indices indicate that we bottomed out in April and on way to recovery, but how long it will take is uncertain.  Also, we have the Existing Home Sales for April, which dropped from 5.27 million annualized units in March to 4.33 million, which is approximately 18% drop.  Leading Economic Indicators improved from -7.4% in March to -4.4% in April.  Stocks are Down so far today on the economic data; corporate earnings reports and building tensions between US and China (again).  MBS is currently Down 5bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are down to 0.67%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/20/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The FOMC Minutes will be released around 11am PST today, but we don't anticipate any news from these notes.  Stocks are Up this morning on good earnings reports from retailers (like Target and Lowes).  MBS is currently Up 11bps, and yesterday, it closed Up 27bps, so you can expect better pricing with Mortgage Rates today.  The Fed is purchasing up to $4.5 Billion of MBS today.  There is a Bond Auction today, so it's possible to have an adverse reaction to the Market, if it isn't successful.  Yields are currently sitting at 0.71%

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/19/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: As expected, Housing Starts dropped in April, as it was reported at 891k annualized units (just under forecasts).  Building Permits (future Housing Starts) also, dropped in April to 1.074 million (better than forecasts) annualized units.  Stocks are a bit Mixed, as the DOW is currently the only index in the Red.  Both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are scheduled to testify before Congress today.  It's expected that they reiterate what they've previously stated in recent comments.  Also, President Trump has threatened to permanently withhold funding to WHO.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  It was close to MBS closing under the 50 DMA, which pricing worsened in the afternoon, before pulling back enough (just above the 50 DMA) before close.  Yields also, broke above it's 50 DMA yesterday; but today, it is under it and sitting at 0.71%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, May 18, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/18/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NAHB Home Builders Index rose from a low of 30 in April to 37 in May.  This index indicates the confidence level of Home Builders in the US on the Housing Market.  Stocks are way Up this morning on news that Moderna Pharmaceuticals announced positive results for the vaccines during Phase One testing.  The Fed's Chairman Powell made comments over the weekend that were very  upbeat and indicated plenty of tools to help the economy.  He indicated that he expects the economy to pick up later in the year, and it may be better than pre-pandemic.  As a result of the good news for stocks, MBS is Down 11bps currently and sitting just above it's 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rates worsened a little bit.  As long as the 50 DMA holds, then we can keep floating.  The Fed is expected to purchase approximately $4.5 Billion MBS today.  Yields have broken above it's 25 DMA and approaching it's 50 DMA.  It's currently at 0.70%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questionsHERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, May 15, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/15/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales continued their decline in April, as they dropped 16.4%; and when you exclude "big ticket" items, like autos, then it dropped 17.2%.  Manufacturing in the NY region improved some, but the number is still pretty bad, as the Empire State Index webt from -78.2 in April to -48.5 in May.  Industrial Production continued to decline, as it dropped 11.2% in April; and the Capacity Utilization dropped down to 64.9%.  Job Openings dropped from 7.0 million in February to 6.2 million in March.  Consumer Sentiment improved in May, as it went from 71.8 in April to 73.7 in May, as the economy tries to work it's way back.  Business Inventories continues their trend of declines into March, as it dropped 0.2%.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning, after making a dramatic U turn yesterday (about a 835 point swing in the red to black at the close).  The data reported today was pretty disappointing to investors, but it also appears that trade tensions with China may be erupting, as the Commerce Dept may be blocking semiconductors to Huawei; and as expected, China is threatening counter-retaliation, if this happens.  MBS is currently Down  9bps, but Mortgage Rates should remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are Up to 0.64%, but still (just under) it's 25 DMA.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, May 14, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/14/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The initial Jobless Claims for last week were a little higher than forecasts, but still lower than previous report, and came in at 2.98 million people applying for unemployment benefits for first time.  This trend is lowering, but it's still disturbing to see so many apply, as it's estimated to have reached approximately 36.5 million people applying for unemployment over just the past 2 months.  This should put us pretty much right at the 20% Unemployment Rate.  The one saving grace is probably the PPP, which is allowing small businesses to retain payroll, so those are additional employees whom may have been added to the unemployment number, if not for the PPP.  Also, a minor report, The Import Price Index dropped 2.6% in April, as we've mentioned that prices in many sectors has been dropping due to the pandemic.  Stocks are Down this morning on the Jobs data; and possible worries over President Trump's comments directed at China that seemed a bit hawkish.  MBS is Up 11bps, so Lenders will be in better place to price Mortgage Rates a bit better today.  Yields are Down to just under 0.62% and below it's 25 DMA.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/13/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Producer Price Index, which is inflationary data on the Wholesale Sector, dropped 1.3% in April, as it's YoY dropped from 0.7% in March to -1.2% in April.  It's Core PPI (excluding food and energy) dropped 0.3%; and it's YoY went from 1.4% in March to 0.6% in April.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning on sombering comments by Fed Chair Powell.  He had mentioned that the current state is unprecedented and we could see over the duration of recovery that liquidity problems can turn into solvency problems.  Also, he suggested that another stimulus package may help the economy and keep us in a prolonged state of depression.  The mood was only continued on the heels of Dr Fauci's testimony before the Senate yesterday, as he indicated that re-opening the economy may result in another outbreak.  MBS is Up only 2 bps so far this morning, so Mortgage Rates remain unchanged.  Yields are trying to stay above it's 25 DMA, and has currently slid just under it at 0.64%.  We'll see if it remains below it.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/12/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index dropped from 96.4 in March to 90.9, which many thought it would dive down into the 80s.  This report represents the confidence in Small Businesses.  The Consumer Price Index dropped 0.8% in April and it's YoY dropped from 1.5% to 0.3%; and when you exclude food and energy from the equation, which are uncontrollable variables, then we have the Core CPI.  The Core CPI dropped 0.4% in April and it's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 1.4%.  You can see the difference, especially for April, the impact that food and energy can have, as Oil dropped to negative in April for the first time.  The CPI is one of two inflationary data that we review on the basis for Consumers.  The other, is the PCE, which is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory again today, as Investors received a report that there were 6 new cases of coronavirus in Wuhan; and Dr Fauci is providing his testimony before the Senate with warnings of re-opening the economy too soon.  The Fed will be purchasing Corporate Bonds today in order to assist with Businesses surviving this current period.  Corporations generally prefer to issue bonds in lieu of bank loans.  MBS is currently Down 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yesterday's Bond Rollover pushed us further down the graph and closer to the 50 DMA, which acts as our floor of support.  The question will be if it holds as a floor and gives us a bounce higher, or do we break below it.  Yields remain steady and currently sit around 0.69%

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, May 11, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/11/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory this morning.  NASDAQ is the only index in positive territory.  There are some reports out that there may be some increased levels of coronavirus around the different parts of the world, as many are trying to re-open their economies.  MBS is also Down 9bps, so coupled with Fridays slide, then Mortgage Rates have worsened some since last Friday morning's position.  Yields have worked their way back above it's 25 DMA and sitting at 0.69%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, May 8, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/8/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS released their Jobs data today, so we'll start with the Non-Farm Payrolls, which lost 20.5 million jobs in April while the Unemployment Rate soared to 14.7%. This is the 2nd Highest Unemployment Rate now on record.  Also, it was just a matter of 2 months ago, that we were at a 50 year low at 3.5%.  The Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.7% in April.  We think this number is a bit skewed.  We think the recent job losses were those in lower paid positions, which their data would help to offset the overall figures.  Stocks are Up despite the disheartening Jobs data because of many of the states' re-opening.  The phone conference between the 2 sets of officials from the US and China was reported to have gone well.  MBS was fighting to break above it's 25 DMA and was up 5bps, but within last few minutes dropped, and is currently Down 5bps.  However, this sideways movements translates to no change in Mortgage Rates.  Yields broke below their 25 DMA and are fighting to break back above it.  It's currently sitting right at the 25 DMA, which is just under 0.66%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, May 7, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/7/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims are still reporting high volumes of claims, but it has been trending lower each week, as it report 3.85 million for last week's report to 3.17 million today.  Productivity dropped 2.5% for Q1, however, it exceeded it's forecasts of -5.5%.  Unit Labor Costs rose 4.8% in Q1.  Stocks are Up this morning, as they view the lower trend of people applying for unemployment lessening each week and many state economies beginning to re-open.  China reported positive data (first since December, before pandemic), as forecasts were still calling for a major drop.  US and Chinese Officials will be meeting via conference to discuss Phase One of the Trade Agreement.  MBS is currently Up 5bps, but still below it's 25 DMA ceiling.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday.  Yields have fallen to just above it's 25 DMA floor at 0.66%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/6/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Employment Report had revised it's March numbers from -26k to -149k; while April shows a drop of 20.2 million.  Definitely shows a bleak week for Jobs data this week, as this is the first of 3 Jobs data we'll see this week.  Stocks were in Negative Territory early on the Jobs data, but has since moved into Positive Territory, as many states are beginning to re-open their economies in phases.  The Treasury Dept. announced they would boost the longer termed bond auctions more than expected, which is stressing govt bonds.  As a result, MBS is Down 11 bps and is now below it's 25 DMA with the 50 DMA about 100 bps as next floor beneath it.  Not would be a good time to lock, if you haven't done so.  Mortgage Rates have worsened a bit this morning on this data.  Yields are Up to 0.73% and broke above it's 25 DMA, adding to the pressure on MBS/Bonds.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions:  HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/5/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only data being reported today is on the Services Industry.  The Markit Service PMI dropped down to 26.7 in April; while ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped down to 41.8%.  Anything below 50 on either index is considered in Contraction/Negative Territory.  Stocks are Up this morning on optimism of global economies beginning to re-open, along with possible vaccines and higher oil prices.  The US Treasury will be looking to borrow $3 Trillion today for the Q2 to meet Congress' Stimulus/Emergency Plans.  This is by far the largest amount they've ever borrowed.  MBS is still hovering above it's 25 DMA and Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are just below it's 25 DMA and sitting just under 0.66%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions:  HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, May 4, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/4/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders dropped by 10.3% in March.  Stocks are mostly down, but Mixed presently, as NASDAQ is the only index to jump into positive territory.  Investors are reviewing the Presidents and other Officials comments about US and China's relationship, which seems to have dissipated further after the coronavirus.  They're concerned over a possible Cold War.  Meanwhile, both MBS and Yields are testing thier 25 DMA.  Let's hope they hold.  MBS is currently Down 8bps; so depending on the Lender, Mortgage Rates have either remained Unchanged or Worsened a little bit.  Yields are currently at 0.63%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, May 1, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/1/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped down to 36.1 for April; while the ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 41.5.  Construction Spending rose by 0.9% in March.  Stocks are Down on Corporate Earnings release and outlooks, including 2 Big Tech Companies (Apple and Amazon).  Also, to add fuel to the fire are new threats from President Trump that the US may add tariffs to Chinese imports because of their handling of the pandemic.  MBS is currently Down about 8bps, but sill above it's 25 DMA, which is climbing.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are up a bit, coming in just under 0.63%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions:  HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, April 30, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/30/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Just a forewarning, I may have rambled on a bit too much today, so I apologize beforehand.  However, we do have a lot of economic data to report today.  The Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 3.84 million, with revisions of approximately +15k in the previous report.  This will most likely bring us to approximately 17% Unemployment Rate, which we'll see those numbers next Friday when the BLS release their reports.  The Employment Cost Index rose by 0.8% in Q1.  Personal Income dropped by 2.0% in March, while Consumer Spending dropped by 7.5%.  These numbers will most likely worsen once we see April's data.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is consumer inflation data reported  a MoM drop of 0.3% in March and a YoY drop from 1.8% to 1.3%; however, when you remove food and energy from the equation, then we have the Core PCE (also called "Core Inflation"), which is the Fed's favorite measure of inflation; and it dropped by 0.1% (sorry, I erred in the video, by stating it rose by 0.1%) MoM, while it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  The headline number had a greater drop due the sudden decline in oil prices.  Manufacturing in the Chicago region contracted even further, as the Chicago PMI reported it at 35.4 on it's index for April.  Stocks are Down on the Job data.  The ECB announced that there were no changes to rates and they will continue to provide the necessary tools to help get the European economy back to running again.  MBS is Up 9bps, but yesterday it closed off it's earlier highs, which places pricing as Unchanged.  Yields haven't moved much either, as it's sitting at 0.59%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/29/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The initial view of Q1 GDP shows the economy dropped 4.8%, which is on the heels of Q4 being up 2.1%.  Pending Home Sales dropped 20.8% in March.  The FOMC wraps up their 2 day meeting today, which Fed Chair Powell will provide his announcement at 11:30am PST.  Stocks are Up this morning on positive news from Gilead.  MBS are also Up 13bps, which Lenders will have improved pricing today.  Yields are currently sitting around 0.60%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions:  HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/28/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller Home Price Index rose from 3.9% to 4.2% in February, which indicates the Real Estate Market heating up prior to coronavirus.  Consumer Confidence dropped from 118.8 to 86.9 in April.  Stocks started the morning Up, but has since drifted into the Red.  The optimism from yesterday, as many parts of the economy begin to re-open.  Oil has slid a bit again to $12/barrel, raising concerns.  Some major Tech Corporate Earnings will be release after hours this week.  Also, the Fed will begin their 2 day meeting today, with their announcement tomorrow.  There aren't any expectations to any rate movement, but investors will listen intently to any changes of current policy, such as their Bond purchases.  MBS is Up 11bps, so Mortgage Rates see a slight improvement in their pricing today.  Yields have fallen down to 0.61%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, April 27, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/27/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are Up on optimism that parts of the world are re-opening their economy, including a few states in the US.  Investors are watching Oil, as it dipped again to $12-$13/barrel.  MBS is Down 11bps, as Mortgage Rates worsened a bit today.  We may have an opportunity, as the 25 DMA may prop them up higher, as it continues it's ascend.  Yields are Up to 0.65%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questionsHERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, April 24, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/24/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders dropped by 14.4% in March; and only dropped by 0.2% when you exclude Transportation.  Consumer Sentiment dropped from 89.1 in March to 71.8 in April. Stocks started the day in Positive Territory, but the DOW has since gone into Negative Territory.  Oil prices are starting to rise a bit (up to around $17-$18/barrel).  Also, the new Stimulus package (mostly for PPP and hospitals) had passed the House yesterday and will await President Trump's signature.  MBS are currently Up 13bps, which leads them to approximately the same pricing as yesterday, as they lost most of their day's gains late in the day.  Most Lenders didn't reprice for the worse, so Mortgage Rates will remain approximately the same.  Yields haven't moved much today, as they sit at 0.60%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questionsHERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt



Thursday, April 23, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/23/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 4.43 million people applying for Unemployment for the first time last week.  Both the Manufacturing and Services Industries continue to sink, as Markit PMI released their reports showing Manufacturing dropping from 48.5 in March to 36.9 in April; and Services dropping from 39.8 to 27.0.  Any number below 50 in these indexes indicates contraction.  Meanwhile, New Home Sales dropped from 741k to 627k in March, after February's data was revised lower from 765k.  Stocks are Up this morning, even though Q1 Earnings Reports are still being released, and the numbers have looked quite grim; but they're having some as summer approaches and some states are beginning to reopen.  MBS is Up 14bps, which will translate to an improvement with Mortgage Rates.  Yields are hanging around just below 0.61%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions:  HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/22/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There were no economic data to report today.  Stocks are Up this morning on news of the new PPP Stimulus package passing thru Senate yesterday, which it will now go to House tomorrow.  This new package will help both Small Businesses and Hospitals.  MBS is Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates may see some improvement in their pricing today.  Yields have climbed back up to 0.63%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/21/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales dropped 8.5% in March, down to 5.27 million annualized units.  Stocks are Down this morning on the struggles of the Oil Industry, as they went into negative territory for the first time for price per barrel.  There's a new package with Congress now that will hopefully get passed this week to help Small Businesses (such as the PPP).  Also, the FHFA is finally doing something to help the Servicers. They are going to cap their investment payment to 4 months.  It's not quite what we were seeking, but it's heading in the right direction.  MBS is currently Down 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields have fallen down to 0.56% now.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Monday, April 20, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/20/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as Oil drops below $11/barrel on low demand based on the coronavirus quarantines.  Also, Congress is working on a plan to help replenish up to $350 billion for the PPP, which is helping Small Businesses from having to layoff employees.  Hopefully, this will be completed soon!  MBS is also Down 16bps, so Mortgage Rates have inched up slightly (approximately .125%).  The Fed has been purchasing enough to keep the floating in approximately in the same level for the past few weeks.  This has helped to stabilize them.  Yields are currently just below 0.63%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, April 17, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/17/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Leading Economic Indicator Report shows a decline of 6.7% drop in March, which is a new record.  Stocks are Up this morning on optimism of a new treatment for the coronavirus by Gillead and the President unveiled his plan for states to begin reopening their economies.  MBS started the day lower, but is currently Up 6 bps.  Mortgage Rates remain unchanged from yesterday's pricing at close of the day; however, the close was a little worse in pricing as the Market changed directions late in the day.  Yields are currently sitting at 0.61%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, April 16, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/16/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims reported 5.25 million people applied for Unemployment Benefits for the first time last week.  This should push our Unemployment Rate between 15% - 20% now.  Housing Starts dropped from 1.564 million in February to 1.216 million in March.  Building Permits dropped from 1.452 million in February to 1.353 million in March.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region dropped even further, at levels not seen since 1980 (like in yesterday's Empire State Index), which it dropped from -12.7 in March to -56.6 in April.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, but showing signs of improvement.  There are reports that many Global Leaders are making plans to re-open their economies, which will have to adjust to enough safety, as to not reactivate the pandemic.  MBS is Up 19bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved a bit this morning.  Yields are now down to 0.60%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/15/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales dropped 8.7% in March; and when you exclude Autos, then it dropped 4.5%.  Manufacturing in the NY region had a steep decline, as it came in -78.2.  Industrial Production dropped 5.4% in March.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.0% to 72.7% in March.  Business Inventories continued with their decline in March, by dropping 0.4%.  Home Builders Index, which measures the confidence level for Home Builders had a sharp decline in April, as it went from 72 to 30.  Later today, we'll get to view the Fed's Beige Book, as it provides more of a Micro View of the economy in the US, as each region posts their data.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, as the Economic data and Q1 Earnings Reports have been very disappointing to Investors.  MBS is Up 20bps this morning, as Mortgage Rates show some Improvement after it's recent decline this week.  Yields are currently hanging just under 0.65%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/14/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning, as there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel of this current pandemic.  Seems like the amount of cases and deaths are dipping each day, so there's talk about possibly opening up the economy and try to bring back some "norm" in our daily lives.  Also, Q1 Earnings Reports are starting to be released, as the Banking sector is due out this week.  There's a lot of warnings on the negative outlook of these coming reports.  MBS is currently Down 6pbs, which is off it's earlier low of -19bps.  The west coast receives their pricing later than the east coast, so our pricing should be about the same as our close yesterday.  We did have a re-price for the worse yesterday, as MBS deteriorated.  There was also a Bond Rollover, which happens every month, which is basically a reset of MBS pricing; but it doesn't have any impact on our ratesheet pricing.  Yields are currently at 0.74%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, April 13, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/13/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There were no economic data to report today.  Stocks are starting the week off in Negative fashion, as they brace for Q1 Earnings Reports, which this week will be the Major Banks.  They're feeling a bit pessimistic!  There was an agreement between the US, OPEC and Russia to cut Oil production by 9.7 million barrels/day.  They're hoping to stabilize the Energy sector by this agreement.  Meanwhile, this is receiving less press, but the Bank of England announced over the weekend that they'll be printing money in order to fund the Stimulus over this crisis period.  This can be concerning in that other countries may follow suit and can possibly lead to hyper-inflation.  Meanwhile, MBS are Down 22bps, so Mortgage Rates are up a little bit from Thursday's pricing.  Yields are up slightly  and sitting just under 0.73%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, April 9, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/9/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Last week's Initial Jobless Claims Report was revised higher, from 6.6 million to 6.9 million.  This week's report had 6.6 million people applying for Unemployment Benefits for the first time; so now, we're looking at approximately 17 million on Unemployment within a 3 week period.  The inflation data in the Wholesale sector remained very tame, as it's Core PPI remained Unchanged YoY at 1.4%; whereas, it's MoM rose 0.2% in March.  The headline data for the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.2% in March.  The Consumer Sentiment continued it's decline, as it went from 89.1 in March to 71.0 in April.  This is the lowest it's been since 2011.  Wholesale Inventories continue to show a decline, as they declined 0.7% in February.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning.  Even though the Jobless Claims are concerning, they are being swayed by the Fed's recent pledge of another $2.3 Trillion toward loans to companies of 10k or less, which will be 4 year loans, and payments will be deferred for 1 year.  Even those whom accepted the PPP loan are still eligible for this program.  Investors are closely watching OPEC and key Oil Producers as they talk about production levels.  They're hoping they stay out of a price war again and stabilize the Energy sector.  MBS is Up 33bps, so we will see some improvement in Mortgage Rate pricing today.  Yields are down a bit, as they are currently sitting at 0.72%.  The Markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so there won't be any video tomorrow.  I'll see you in the next video on Monday, the 13th.  Have a good Easter weekend!

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/8/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The FOMC Minutes from March 15th will be released later this morning.  We don't anticipate any effects, as this was their emergency meeting where they cut the Fed Funds Rate to 0% and announced their QE purchases.  Now only if we could get the FHFA (especially Director Calabria) to cooperate, then we could alleviate the burden of the Servicers whom are dramatically being affected with the forbearance -but Calabria won't seem to help!  Stocks are rebounding a bit today, after they suffered a huge 180 shift yesterday (the DOW suffering almost a 1000 point reversal).  Investors are watching for any information or plan as to the possibility of the some US economy being reopened.  MBS is Down 5bps this morning, but if you've been watching my videos, it's hard to say if rates really improved or worsened, as Lenders are still working thru their many issues.  If this was a normal Market, then watching the MBS Market would indicate that Mortgage Rates would be Unchanged from yesterday's close. Yields are still hanging around .75%.  These are being propped up on the Auctions, as the Govt. sells it's debt to finance the stimulus measures being passed.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/7/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The small business optimism fell to it's lowest level since Oct 2016, as the NFIB Small Business Index dropped from 104.5 to 96.4 in March.  Stocks are in Positive Territory again today on continued progress on coronavirus and possible news of another Stimulus package to be rolled out in May.  MBS started the morning lower, but is currently down only 2bps, as the Fed will prop it up with their daily purchases, which is why we're seeing it move in a sideways pattern.  Now, only if the FHFA will do it's part and help the Servicers, then we may be able to see some improvements with Lenders, as they struggle with several variables.  Yields are now Up to 0.75%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, April 6, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/6/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are Up this morning on optimism on the progress of the coronavirus, as death tolls declined in Italy and Spain, and even a bit it NYC.  MBS is Up 3bps, as the Fed is just propping them out to help, but not hurt Lenders.  Yields are Up around 0.65%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, April 3, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/3/30

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Non-Farm Payrolls reported 701k job losses for the month of March.  This was much higher than estimates, anywhere between 80k-150k job losses, as the sample data used for this model were derived from March 12, which was prior to the full scope of the coronavirus crisis.  Also, Unemployment Rate jumped up to 4.4%.  Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% in March, which we believe this was skewed as lower salary employees being let go first.  The next 2 reports are on the Services Industry, which in these reports any number above 50 is expansion/optimism; whereas, anything below it, is contraction/pessimism.  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 49.4 to 39.8; while the ISM Non Manufacturing Index dropped from 57.3% to 52.5%.  Stocks are Down on the Job data today, but the rise of Oil prices is helping it not to really sink.  The price per barrel rose approximately from $20 yesterday to $27 today, as Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut back on production by approximately 6 million barrels/day.  This sector (energy) was struggling as their value rapidly dropped approximately 60% and was mentioned as a possible stimulus recipient.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 28bps this morning, which would normally be an improvement in Mortgage Rates, but we're still not seeing Lenders price accordingly.  However, I'm hearing that we may start to see some improvement in that area within days now.  Fingers crossed!  Yields are down to 0.58%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, April 2, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/2/30

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims doubled the amount of people applying for unemployment benefits from previous week, as it went from 3.3 million to 6.6 million; so, in 2 weeks we have approximately 10 million people applying for Unemployment!  Factory Orders were flat for February.  Stocks are Up this morning on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia are agreeing to cut back oil production by at least 10 million barrels, as the price of oil has dropped 2/3 since earlier this year.  The price per barrel now is approximately $20/barrel; whereas, it was approximately $60 in January.  Of course, gas prices are low, but we cannot drive anywhere :(  MBS is Up 28bps, which would technically improve Mortgage Rates, but Lenders are still propping up rates in order to get thru their backlog of transactions.  Yields started the morning lower, but it now up to 0.60%.  If you're a Real Estate Investor, then you'll want to watch the video on new changes to guidelines that will greatly impact your mortgage qualifications.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Daily Market Report 4/1/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP Employment Report will be the first of 3 Jobs reports we'll receive for the month of March.  For the month of March, the ADP reported there were 27k job losses.  We also see Manufacturing slip in March, as the Markit Manufacturing PMI slips to 48.5 and the ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 49.1%.  However, it wasn't as bad as forecasts, which were expecting in the low to mid- 40 range.  Construction Spending dipped 1.3% in February.    Stocks are Down this morning on new projections of the Death rate in the US to be expected around 100k - 240k.  President Trump warned that it could be "very, very painful" for the next 2 weeks.  MBS was down most of the morning, but just recently popped Up 2bps.  The recent drop in the MBS Market is helping Lenders to complete their pipeline, which will take some time due to the volume. This is reducing the amount of Margin Calls out there.  Meanwhile, Yields have fallen about 10bps to 0.60%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/31/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller National HPI rose from 3.7% in December to 3.9% in January.  Manufacturing dipped a little further in contraction for the Chicago region, as the Chicago PMI went from 49.0 to 47.8 (below 50 is considered contraction); however, this was better than most of the estimates, which ranged from 35 to 40.  The Consumer Confidence remained relatively high, considering the current circumstances, as it came in at 120.0.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Manufacturing data and China's Manufacturing and Services data; however, some speculate their numbers to be too good to be true, as they jumped from approximately 30 to 51.5 MoM, and they're not at full optimum capacity, as prior to the pandemic.  Needless to say, the were impressed with the progress.  MBS closed down 66bps yesterday, and is currently Down 14bps today.  The Fed had scheduled to purchase approximately $40 billion of MBS yesterday, but only purchased about $20 billion.  Last week, MBS was propped up by the Fed, as they averaged around $40 billion daily purchases.  We think they're just trying to do enough, at this point, to keep MBS afloat and not disrupt the Lending process.  This is good because the sooner the Lenders can clear thru their pipeline, then they can reallocate funds to pricing new loans at "true" Market rates and hopefully bring back some of the Non QM and Jumbo loans.  Yields are not sitting at 0.69%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, March 30, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/30/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Pending Home Sales slowed in February, as it's MoM dropped from 5.3% to 2.4%.  This number will most likely continue to decline as we all experienced a major and quick shift in the Market over the coronavirus.  Stock Market is Up today.  The coronavirus is having a major impact and we're seeing a very large amount of infected and deaths from it.  MBS is Up 44bps, but has been shrinking a bit as I've been putting this report together for you and trying to remain above the ceiling of resistance.  MBS is being propped up from the Fed's daily purchases (QE), which they're trying to help the Market, but it's inadvertently hurting Lenders in the process because of their Margin calls.  We're still not seeing pricing that correlates with the MBS Market, and many loan programs (like Jumbos and Non QM) have dried up; and the Government loans (FHA, VA and USDA) have tougher restrictions (like higher minimum fico scores and lower Debt-to-income ratios).  This will be worked thru, but it's going to take some time to get this sorted.  Meanwhile, Yields have fallen some more, down to 0.60%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, March 27, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/27/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few economic data to review today, which we'll start with the Personal Income, which rose 0.6% in February; along with Consumer Spending, which rose 0.2% in February.  The Fed's favorite gauge for Inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditure, actually the Core PCE (without food or energy, as they're uncontrolled variables).  The PCE rose 0.1% MoM, and it's YoY remained Unchanged at 1.8%.  The Core PCE rose 0.2% MoM, and it's YoY rose from 1.7% to 1.8%.  This is still under the Fed's target rate of 2.0% and most likely will dip in the coming months, as there's no inflationary pressure currently.  Lastly, the Consumer Sentiment dropped (expected) from it's earlier report of 95.9 to 89.1.  Stocks are deep in the Red this morning, as Investors are worried that the US coronavirus cases may have exceeded China's.  The Stimulus Package is currently with the House for their Vote today.  Pelosi is confident it will pass, as there have been some rumblings from some in the party that they may block it.  Fingers crossed that it moves along.  MBS is currently Up 77bps, which would technically help Mortgage Rates; but instead, it's exacerbating an issue with Lenders on Margin calls.  This is being done inadvertently by the Fed, as they continue to purchase MBS and Treasuries.  It would normally help us, but this is not good timing for the Lenders to handle this.  Meanwhile, Yields have fallen down to .74% now.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, March 26, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/26/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims for last week exceeded it's estimate of 2.5 million, which it came in at 3.283 million.  The previous record was 695k in 1982; and the highest it reached during the past Credit Crisis, a decade ago, was 655k; so, you can see how much of an impact this pandemic has made on our economy compared to previous economic crisis.  The 4th Quarter GDP remained unchanged, as it's final number remains at 2.1%.  Stocks are Up this morning, after being in Negative Territory, as the Senate passed the Stimulus package.  Next it will go to the House on Friday; and if it passes there, then onto the President to be signed this weekend.  MBS has had some large swings this morning, as it's figuring which direction to move.  It's currently Up 27bps.  Because of the large swings this moring, it will be difficult to determine Mortgage Rates.  I plan to work on a video going over what's happening in the Mortgage Industry, as many people are being affected, and I see lots of misinformation being stated by the Media and others.  There are lots of reports of Mortgage Rates dramatically dropping, but Lenders offering these much lower rates that is being reported.  I want to explain why and what to expect, so stay tuned.  Yields have dropped to 0.80%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/25/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders increased 1.2% in February; but if you exclude Transportation, then it contracted by 0.6%.  The FHFA Home Price Index, which measures home appreciation on homes with conforming loans rose 0.3% MoM in January, and it's YoY was 5.2%.  Stocks are Up on possible news that there was an agreement made on a Stimulus Package that is expected to be announced today.  MBS was up 36bps in earlier trading, but then turned negative (down 20bps) and is currently Down 8bps.  Lenders whom priced in the Market earlier will change their pricing for the worse; and pricing may be around the same as where we closed yesterday.  Pricing is still very difficult to navigate, as we're treading very uncertain times (watch video for updates on the Loan Programs and Market).  Lenders are not pricing their Rates according to the Markets, as they're facing Margin Calls, Huge Influx of loans to underwrite, Risk of Default and even Liquidity issues.  Yields started higher, but have now moved to Unchanged at 0.81%.

Please subscribe to my  Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/24/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Markit PMI flash released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Service) today.  Both dropped MoM in March, as Manufacturing dropped from 50.7 to 49.2; and Services dropped from 49.4 to 39.1, which is the lowest level on record.  Anything below 50 is considered contraction.  New Home Sales had a large revision for January, as it was increased from764k annualized units to 800k.  February shows a drop from the revised level to 765k.  Stocks are Up this morning on Optimism, as there are hopes of a Coronavirus Stimulus Package may be passed thru Congress, after the Democrats blocked the previous Package.  MBS is Up 66bps so far this morning, as the Fed continues it's QE Purchases every day this week.  It closed down from it's high yesterday, but still Up 84bps; as a result, there was a price change for the worse.  Today's pricing for Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday's close, but similar to what we saw during our high's yesterday.  Yields are up a bit and just under .84% currently.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, March 23, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/23/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There is no data to report on the Economic Calendar today.  There's really only one report this week that will be relevant due to the sudden impact of the coronavirus, and that is the Initial Jobless Claims this Thursday.  Meanwhile, Stocks are Down this morning on the lack of assistance from Congress.  The Fed came out and stated the will do whatever it takes to smooth out the economy.  The started out today with an infinite amount of QE, which they'll be purchasing a large amount of Treasury and MBS every day this week.  It's helping the MBS Market today, as it's Up 120bps; however, we're still not seeing all of these improvements in our pricing, as Lenders are (for the past few weeks) pricing it higher to slow the process down because of the sudden amount of files that were submitted in the beginning of the month; also, of late, their assessing their risk tolerance due to concerns of repayment of the loans.  Yields are Down to .77%.       *****If you're working with Non-Conventional or Government Loan Programs, then be cautious!  After recording this video, one of our Non-QM Lenders told me their Suspending all business for the next 2 weeks, then reassess the Market and adjust their guidelines and pricing thereafter.********

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, March 20, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/20/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales jumped Up in February, going from 5.42 million annualized units in January to 5.77 million in February.  Because the Market has dramatically shifted from then, we can almost disregard this data.  Stocks started the Day in Positive Territory, which it was beginning to slow down in to Negative Territory, as I was preparing this report.  There is talk of a Stimulus package that will send funds out to people, but nothing has been finalized.  Goldman Sachs released a horrifying report that we should expect approximately 2.5 million initial jobless claims as soon as next week.  Just last week, it spiked to 281k; and the highest we saw around the Credit Crisis was around 600k.  If this comes true, then it would dramatically dwarf the events of the Credit Crisis, as we're seeing swings in the Market that are more severe.  Many states are telling their people to remain home, unless there is essential business.  MBS is going thru some of it's worst cycles, and is ever changing by the minute.  We're currently down 62bps; and Yields are down to .94%.  There's so much going on that very difficult to keep up.  You'll get more info, if you watch the video, so be sure to watch it!

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, March 19, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/19/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims had a 70k spike in first time unemployment applicants last week, as it hit 281k.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia completely fell off in March, as it went from a very nice February of 36.7 to -12.7 in March, which is in contraction.  Stocks were Up for a bit this morning on some recent moves by the Fed (such as setting up a temporary dollar swap with other central banks to meet the global demands for the dollar and a facility to assist money market funds to meet the demands of investors request to redeem their mutual funds.  However, they soured and have begun to dig themselves back into the Red.  MBS is also having major swings, as it was down 25bps this morning, then swung high to just over 100bps and now is sitting Up 41bps.  Because of these constant and big swings, it's really difficult to project where a Lender is pricing, as they try to maintain the pricing; as a result, it's been difficult for Loan Officers to lock rates because of the constant price changes throughout the day.  Yields are currently sitting just above it's floor of support at 1.09%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/18/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped a bit in February, going from 1.624 million annualized units in January to 1.599 million.  Also, Building Permits, which is our outlook for Housing Starts, dropped in February, going from 1.550 million in January to 1.464 million.  Stocks are way down today (DOW was down approximately 1500), as Investors have concerns on how long of an impact the coronavirus will have on the global economy and it's effects on small businesses.  It's expected that the US Gov't will roll out a Stimulus package to help both businesses and consumers during this crisis, which may lead up to $1.3 Trillion in new debt.  This is having a large impact on MBS and Treasuries, as Treasuries surge to 1.13% due to the sudden increase in debt, while demand to purchase it is not there.  MBS has dropped 89bps and is testing it's 25 DMA again.  As you may have guessed, Mortgage Rates have dramatically jumped up again!

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/17/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Happy St. Patrick's Day!  Today, we have Retail Sales, which dropped 0.5% in February; and when you remove Autos, then it dropped 0.4%.  However, Industrial Production rose 0.6% in February.  Capacity Utilization rose from 76.8% to 77.0% in February.  Home Builders are feeling a little less confident in March, as the NAHB Home Builder's Index went from 74 in February to 72 in March.  Business Inventories dropped 0.1% in January.  Stocks are trying to rebound after the worst trading day since October 1987, as the DOW dropped 3k.  Right now, it's Up about a 100.  The coronavirus is having a major impact on the US and Global Economy, as it's coming to a complete shutdown in order to contain the spread; and there are warnings that this might even last deep into summer.  At this point, a recession is a matter of when, not if.  MBS is currently up 6bps, after starting in negative territory.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  There's still a bit of capacity issue with Lenders.  I'm seeing some positive movements, but we're not quite there yet.  Yields have worked their way up to .77%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, March 16, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/16/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The manufacturing sector in the NY region dropped dramatically, as the Empire State Index dropped 21.5% in March, which may be signs that the coronavirus is beginning to make it's way into the US economy.  Stocks are WAY Down today, even having another 15 minute pause due to the sell-off.  The Fed held an Emergency Meeting yesterday, in lieu of it's FOMC this week, and cut the Fed Funds Rate to near 0% and will roll-out another QE of $700 Billion to help with Liquidity concerns.  Please not that the Fed Funds Rate is NOT the same as Mortgage Rates, as I've been seeing a lot of confusion from lots of different places.  MBS was Up 200bps earlier, but is currently Up 123bps (down from earlier highs).  This would technically  improve Mortgage Rates, but I'm still seeing many Lenders artificially keeping rates high due to their capacity issues.  Yields are Down to .84% now.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, March 13, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/13/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Import Price Index dropped 0.5% in February.  The Consumer Sentiment remained Unchanged at 101 in March.  Stocks are working their way back into Positive Territory after it's worst day on the Market since 1987.  The DOW was up nearly 1000 points, but is currently sitting around 300.  There might be a Stimulus package that may be announced soon -The White House and Congress are working together on a plan.  The Fed stepped in yesterday to pump more liquidity back into the Markets.  MBS started the Morning lower and were up higher, but have been fluctuating between positive and negative territory.  It's currently Up 5bps, so I'd say that Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's close.  If we can get the MBS to close in positive territory, then that may be a sign they're ready to climb their way back up.  Yields are currently at .86%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, March 12, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/12/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims report dropped by 4k, from previous week, to 211k people applying for unemployent benefits for the first time.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation with the Wholesale sector, dropped 0.6% in February, which it's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 1.3%.  When you remove food and energy from the equation, the you have the Core PPI, which dropped by 0.3% in February; and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.4%.  Stocks were halted again this morning due to panic selling, which the DOW has now officially entered the Bear Territory, and the others will most likely follow suit today, which we'll find out after close.  The panic over the coronavirus has now led to flights being cancelled from Europe for the month of March; NBA cancelling it's season until further notice; to other sports events playing with no audience in the stadiums and other events with large gatherings being cancelled.  A few famous people are now claiming to having been infected with the coronavirus.  Governments and Central Banks around the world are trying to put together packages to assist it's people and businesses.  Needless to say, these times are unprecedented!  MBS started the morning a little higher, but since has dropped and is testing the 25 DMA.  It is Down about 30bps, so again Mortgage Rates continue to rise.  Yields are sinking today too, as they are now residing around .67%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Daily Market Report 3/11/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in February, however, it's YoY dropped from 2.5% to 2.3%.  It's Core, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%; and it's YoY rose from 2.3% to 2.4%.  Based on how the economy is beginning to shape up, inflation will drop, so this will be less of a concern for the Fed.  Stocks are losing their gains from yesterday's trade this morning, after the DOW closed Up 1100 yesterday and is currently Down about 1000.  Many countries across the globe are announcing interest rate cuts along with possible stimulus measures presented by their gov't.  MBS started in positive territory this morning, by as much as 20bps, however, that has dissolved and dropped dramatically.  At the time of creating this report, it was Down 47bps, and even dropped 66bps.  The Good News is the Trend Line is currently holding, which means that the trend for MBS is to continue rising.  Right now, we're just touching/testing the bottom of the Trend Line.  The previous high spikes that we saw earlier, were too fast and too much, so we got a whipsaw effect.  Stay patient, as it will sort itself out!  Yields are currently sitting around .78%.  There will be a 10 Year Treasury Auction later today, which can help Mortgage Rates, so stay tuned!

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt