Friday, September 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/20/19  We don't have any data to report from the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are Up again today and approaching new highs again.  Tensions between US and China appear to be easing, as they're currently meeting to prepare for the bigger meeting in October.  A few members of the Fed spoke today, after the FOMC which the Dissenters relayed their reasons for the dissension.  Today, it's Quadruple Witching Day on Wall Street, so we may see some re-balancing in stocks, which may or may not help Bonds.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, but it's not quite enough to improve Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged again today.  Yields are trying to remain above it's double floor of support, which it's just below it, at 1.77%.

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Thursday, September 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/19/19 Weekly Jobless Claims beat forecasts and rose only 2k, to 208k.  The Philly Fed dropped from 16.8 to 12.0 in Sept., but still beat it's projection at 10.0.  This measures the manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.  Existing Home Sales rose in August from 5.42 million annualized units to 5.49 million, which forecasts were calling for a drop to 5.39 million.  Leading Indicators were flat in August.  Stocks are Up this morning after the FOMC announcment, and they liked today's data.  MBS is Up 6bps, but it's not enough to change Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting just above a double layer of support at the 2.79%.

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Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/18/19  Both Housing Starts and Permits had a very nice spike in August, which coincides with yesterday's NAHB Home Builder Index.  Housing Starts jumped Up from 1.215 million annualized units to 1.364 million.  Permits leaped from 1.317 million annualized units to 1.419 million.  Around 11am PST, the Fed will release their statement, which we expect a 0.25% Rate Cut.  Stocks are Down ahead of the Fed's Decision.  Also, the Fed had to intervene with the Markets yesterday because there seems to have been a bit of a Liquidity issue.  MBS improved as the day went on yesterday, and is Up 17bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Better so far.  If there is any concern over Inflation, then this could spook the Markets, and we'll see a pullback in the the Bond Market (negatively affecting Mortage Rates).  Yields have slid down to 1.75% now.

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Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/17/19  Industrial Production rose 0.6% in August; and Capacity Utilization rose from 77.5% to 77.9%.  Last, but not least, the Home Builder's Index rose from 66 to 68 in September.  This index measures the confidence level of Home Builders.  The Sentiment from the Attacks on Saudi Oil Processing Plants are lingering into today's trading.  Stocks started in the Red, but have eased up a bit, and now are Mixed.  We saw the biggest spike since September 2008 in Oil prices yesterday, so Investors are watching this carefully.  This could lead into talk of Inflation, which is the enemy of MBS/Bonds, as it erodes it's value over time.  The FOMC begin their 2 day meeting today, which they're expected a 0.25% Rate Cut.  If there's any mention of concern over inflation, then we could see an adverse effect with MBS and Mortgage Rates.  MBS are currently Up 2bps.  So, no change in Mortgage Rates from yesterday's pricing today.  Yields are slid a bit to 1.83%.  The Good News is the Stochastic Chart seems to reflect a reversal in the trend of both MBS and Yields, so we may reclaim some of the lost pricing and improvement with Mortgage Rates in the near term.

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Monday, September 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/16/19 The Empire State Index, which measures Manufacturing data in the NY region, dropped from 4.8 in August to 2.0 in September.  Manufacturing has been suffering a bit of late, and it's something that we're watching, as more and more talk about recession becomes more apparent.  The drone attack on Saudi Oil Processing Center has dropped the Stock Market into Negative Territory, as the money has flown to safety by investing into Bonds/MBS, which MBS is Up 25bps.  Yields have come down to 1.85%.

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Friday, September 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/13/19 Retail Sales jumped Up 0.4% in August; however, if you remove Autos from that data, then it was completely flat.  Consumer Sentiment Index shows that Consumers are feeling better in September, as it rises from 89.8 to 92.0.  Also, Business Inventories rose 0.4% in July.  Stocks are modestly trading in Positive Territory, as it's trading at it's highs.  The sentiment is calm after "good will" gestures between US and China prior to their upcoming October meeting; and an accomodating attitude amongst the Central Banks to stimulate the economy.  Meanwhile, money is flowing out of MBS/Bonds and into Stocks/Equities; so, Mortgage Rates continue to rise this week, as MBS is down 36bps this morning.  Yields are climbing, and now sits around 1.86%.  Both have broken past their next levels of support/resistance.

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Thursday, September 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/12/19 Weekly Jobless Claims came in strong last week, which only 204k people applied for first time benefits.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.1% in August, which it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  However, it's Core CPI rose 0.3% in August, and it's YoY rose from 2.2% to 2.4%.  Stocks are in Positive Territory on news that the US will delay Tariffs on $250 Billion Chinese goods from October 1st to October 15th as a gesture of good will.  Also, the ECB announced further rate cuts, which they reduced their depository rates by 10bps, so they went from -0.4% to -0.5%.  They also announced that they will start buying Government Bonds in November in blocks of $20 Billion Euros until they deem necessary.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning much higher, but has since fizzled and is currently Up only 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain the same.  Yields faced the same type of volatility, as they currently sit at 1.75%.  Both lines held yesterday and are starting to be challenged again this morning.

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