Friday, February 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/15/19 We have a few economic data pieces to report from the Economic Calendar.  We'll start with the Manufacturing data in the NY region, which is the Empire State Index, which reported an 8.8 on it's February numbers.  This is up from 3.9 in January.  An improvement and better than most forecasts, but still a bit tame for what we'd like.  The Industrial Production dropped 0.6% in January; and Capacity Utilization dropped from 7837% to 78.2% in January.  Consumer Sentiment improved from 91.2 to 95.5 in February, based on the Gov't Shutdown ending.  Stocks are WAY Up this morning (DOW over 300), as news of continued progress in US/China Trade Talks (touted by both Presidents) and they will be continued in DC next week.  Fed Members have been speaking all week, which nothing was out of line to jostle the Markets, but Fed Member Brainard commented Thursday that the Fed might need to end it's Balance Sheet reduction later this year -this will bode well for Stocks and MBS.  Also, Spending Bill is supposed to be signed, but a new twist erupted when President announced the National Emergency to come up with the extra funds for the southern Border Wall.  MBS started the morning below it's 25 DMA, but has risen above it.  However, it is down 5bps from yesterday's close.  Mortgage Rates should be unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are currently at 2.66% and trying to buck it's downward trend.  If it's successful, then it will pressure MBS lower -thus higher Mortgage Rates.  Let's see how it plays out!

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Thursday, February 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/14/19 A lot to cover under the Economic Calendar today.  The Initial Jobless Claims continued it's increase in claims, as 239k applied for benefits last week.  This will pose a question if it bottomed out, as this could be a prelude to a recession.  Retail Sales were a HUGE disappointment for December, as they dropped 1.2%; and dropped 1.8% when you remove large ticket items (Autos), as this is their Control Group.  We received inflation news on the Wholesale level, which doesn't always receive much love, but can provide insight into future inflation levels for Consumers.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.1% in January, as it's YoY dropped from 2.5% to 2.0%.  The Core PPI (without food or energy) rose 0.3%; but it's YoY dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%.  Lastly, Business Inventories dropped 0.1% in November.  Stocks are in Negative Territory on the poor economic data posted today, even though we will overt another Gov't Shutdown, as President Trump is about to sign the Border Security legislation; and continued optimism on a US/China Trade Agreement.  MBS are back above the 25 DMA and up 14bps so Mortgage Rate will be better today.  Yields have fallen down to 2.66% so far this morning, still below it's 25 DMA.

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/13/19 We have inflation data to cover today on the Economic Calendar.  The Consumer Priced Index (CPI) remained unchanged from December to January, but did decline from 1.9% to 1.6% YoY.  The Core CPI (excluding food & energy) rose 0.2%, and remained at 2.2% YoY.  The Stock Market is Up this morning on growing optimism over a US/China Trade Agreement, as reports indicate that President Trump will soften his stance on the "Hard" deadline of March 1st, if talks progress enough that an Agreement is close.  Also, reports indicate that the tentative agreement on US Border Security will move along and avoid another Gov't Shutdown.  Saudi Arabia announced a cut in their oil production, so Oil prices are rising, as a result.  MBS is currently down 14bps and pushing below it's floor of support at the 25 DMA.  This has Lenders pricing Mortgage Rates a bit higher today.  Yields have climbed up to 2.72% and is fighting to break above it's 25 DMA and adding more pressure to Mortgage Rates.

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Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/12/19 We have 2 items on the Economic Calendar today.  The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidences level within Small Businesses dropped from 104.4 to 101.2.  This is the  lowest reading since November 2016.  Part of the change was due to the Gov't Shutdown; but the ongoing #1 issue has been to locate qualified applicants for their job openings.  Speaking of Job Openings, they jumped from 7.2 million in November to 7.3 million in December.  Stocks are flying high today, as there was an announcement that there was a tentative agreement between both parties on the Border Security.  Also, there is optimism on the China Trade Talks.  MBS is down 9 bps, which will translate to a little higher pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yesterday's graph will look worse than it was, as the Bonds had their Rollover, which translated an extra 11bps worse pricing.  However, this doesn't affect the Rate sheet pricing.  It's just a reset on MBS when they start their next 30 day batch to sell on Wall Street.  So, their net loss yesterday was -8bps.  Meanwhile, Yields have climbed up to 2.68%.

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Monday, February 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/11/19 Rather quiet morning, thus far.  There's no economic data to report; although, we do have a bit of important data this week (such as Retail Sales).  Stocks are Up a little bit this morning on optimism on Negotiations between US/China as representatives gather in Beijing, starting today; and between the 2 parties on US Border Security.  Both have deadlines approaching (Border Security is due by end of this week and US/China by March 1st).  MBS is down 11bps, which may lead to some Lenders to reprice Mortgage Rates to worsen a bit, as they stick in the middle of a wide range, and will be following how the Stock Market moves today.  Yields are at 2.65%.

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Friday, February 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/8/19 Another quiet day for the Economic Calendar.  Nothing to report today.  Next week will be a bit busier.  We're winding down on the Q4 Earnings Reports, so we're not having as much effect from them in the Stock Market, as Investors begin toward the US/China Trade Talks.  Today, things are looking a bit sour, as there's been a few different reports out there that make it seem that an Agreement won't be happening any time soon, as it's reported that President Trump doesn't have any plans to meet with President Jinping before the March 1st deadline.  Also, comments by Larry Kudlow, stating that we're still very far apart on any agreement, especially on the enforcement.  Of course, this, along with yesterday's poor data from Germany/EU added to the sentiment in today's poor Stock Market showing, as all indices are in the Red.  MBS is only up 5bps, as there's some improvement, but not enough to notice in pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have dropped further, down to 2.64% now.

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Thursday, February 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 2/7/19 Today, we only have the Initial Jobless Claims to report from the Economic Calendar.  Last week, it was reported that 234k people applied for benefits, which was lower than the previous week's 253k.  These may be holdovers from the holidays, but we'll watch this data closely to verify any movements higher, as it will be a leading indicator toward a recession.  Stocks are trading in the Red this morning, as Investors worry about the poor data out of the EU, as they are beginning to feel the slowdown has moved from China to the EU.  MBS is benefiting, as it's up 13bps, which is an improvement with the pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slid down to 2.66%.

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