Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts improved in October, rising from 1.266 million annualized units in September to 1.314 million in October.  The Building Permits (a good forward view of Housing Starts) increased to a 12 year high, which it went from 1.391 million annualized units in September to 1.461 million in October.  The good part of this data is the increase in Single Family Homes.  Stocks are Down this morning and growing doubt over a US-China Trade deal happening before the December 15th Deadline (for more Tariffs).  Also, Home Depot and Kohls sales disappointed.  MBS is currently Up 5bps.  However, MBS closed only +5bps yesterday, well off of it's highs when pricing came out.  So, Lenders whom had an intraday price change yesterday for the worse, then they'll price today about the same as yesterday's close.  Those whom held off on a change in pricing will see it in today's pricing.  Yields are trying to hold above it's Quadruple floor of support.  It's currently below it's 25- and 100 DMA and sitting just on it's Fibonacci.  It's just a hair under 1.79% now.

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Monday, November 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Home Builders Index, which measures the confidence level of Home Builders, slid from 71 to 70 in November.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as pessimism grows on any US-China Trade Deal happening any time soon.  MBS is currently Up 19bps and fighting to stay above it's Fibonacci level, and rose above it's 25-, 50- and 100 DMA.  Yields are Down to 1.80% and sitting on a Triple layer of Support at 25-, 100 DMA and Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates did improve today.

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Friday, November 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales Improved by 0.3% in October; and when you exclude Autos, then it only rose 0.1%.  Import Prices rose 0.2% in October.  Empire State Index, which measures the Manufacturing sector in NY region, dropped from 4.0 to 2.9 in November.  Industrial Production slipped 0.8% in October.  Capacity Utilization fell to 76.7% in October, which is at a 2 year low.  Meanwhile, Business Inventories remain Unchanged in September.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Retail Sales data and clinging to any hope of an announcement of a US/China Trade Agreement.  They're trying to justify the New Highs in the Indexes, but they're growing impatient.  MBS is Down 5bps this morning and is sitting above the 25- and 100 DMA, but right up against the 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged this morning.  Yields are currently sitting around 1.83%.

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Thursday, November 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims rose to a 5 month high last week, as 225k people filed for Unemployment.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose higher than expected in October by 0.4%, which forecasts called for 0.3%.  However, it's YoY dropped from 1.4% to 1.1%.  Like it's counter-part, the Core PPI (excluding food and energy), it exceeded it's October forecast of 0.2%, and came in at 0.3%.  Also, it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.6%.  Stocks are in the Red today, as Investors grow weary of a US/China Trade Agreement.  Fed Chair Powell will begin his 2nd day of speaking with Congress today; and other Fed Members will be out today with their Speaking Engagements.  MBS is currently Up 19bps, as Mortgage Rates improve; however, it's up against a very tough triple layer of resistance (the 25-, 50- and 100 DMA lie just above it).  Yields have slipped down to 1.83%, and is coming close to reaching it's floor of support, which is currently the 100 DMA.

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Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October; and it's YoY rose from 1.7% to 1.8%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.2% in October; however, it YoY dropped from 2.4% to 2.3%.  Stocks are Down this morning after being disappointed in President Trump's speech yesterday, as they didn't feel that they received any of the information that they were seeking.  Also, to add fire to the fuel, Fed Chair Powell's statements to Congress was released before his Testimony, which disappointed Investors even more, as he stated that we shouldn't expect any more rate cuts based on the current levels in the economy, unless there were a severe deterioration.  MBS is benefiting from this, as they're Up 14bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates will see a slight improvement in their pricing.  Yields have slid under it's Fibonacci and resides at 1.88%.

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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which is an index that measures the confidence level with Small Businesses, rose from 101.8 to 102.4 in October.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as they await a speech from President Trump today.  It's anticipated that he'll speak on Tariffs and Trade.  We'll have a few Fed Members speaking today, but lately, there hasn't been any Market moving comments by any of the Members.  MBS is currently Down 5pbs and is floating in "No Man's" land between it's new floor of support (Fibonacci level) and ceiling of resistance (100 DMA).  Yields are still just above it's Fibonacci and just a hair below 1.95%. Mortgage Rates haven't changed since Friday's pricing.

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Friday, November 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment rose slightly from 95.5 to 95.7, which was better than expectations of it dropping to 95.0.  Wholesale Inventories dropped 0.4% in September.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory today, as President Trump stated that he didn't authorize any roll-back on Tariffs, per comments made out of China yesterday.  If you may recall, there were reports that China stated that Tariffs will be rolled back as part of Phase 1 of the agreement.  The US never acknowledged an agreement, but reports in the US that there were internal debates around these comments.  The Markets cooled off later in the afternoon.  MBS had a brutal day yesterday, after touching the low point of September 13th, which was approximately down 72bps, to close down 41bps.  This morning, it 's currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates are approximately the same position that we started the day yesterday, or very slightly worse.  Yields are trying to stay above it's current Fibonacci and sitting at 1.92%.

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