Friday, October 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Leading Economic Indicators continue to decline, which it's MoM into September dropped 0.1%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory this morning on bad economic news out of China, which shows their Economy slowing more rapidly than anticipated.  Q3 Corporate Earnings continue to report decent reports, which pleases the Investors; and various Fed Members continue with their speeches.  MBS has been trending lower and have been pushing against it's floor of support at the 100 DMA, which has been a strong support.  It's currently Unchanged from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates (also) remain Unchanged.  Like it's counter-part, Yields have been pushing up against it's Ceiling of Resistance, which is a Fibonacci level.  This level has been very strong.  It's currently sitting at 2.75%.  I'm watching the stochastic charts, which may indicate a near trend reversal.  It's not clear yet, but it does look like there may be a possibility.

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Thursday, October 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Weekly Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 214k, which this week's data is important, as it's being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of it's Job Numbers.  The numbers for both Housing Starts and Building Permits look on the surface a bit disappointing, but they're not as bad as they appear.  I'll explain.  Augusts numbers for both indexes were revised a little higher; also, the drop-off in both indexes were due to a decline in Multi-Families, whereas, single families were up a little bit.  If you dig a little deeper into the numbers, then it's not THAT bad!  So, Housing Starts dropped from the revised 1.39 million to 1.26 million.  Building Permits dropped from 1.43 million to 1.39 million.  Philly Fed, which measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia region, dropped from 12.0 to 5.6 in October.  Industral Production declined 0.4% in September.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.9% to 77.5% in October.  Stocks are Up in early trading today.  We've been seeing fairly decent Q3 Earnings Reports thus far, even though it's relatively early in the releases.  There was an announcement that there may be a Brexit Deal in the works, which will still need to be voted by both sides' voting member.  The US and China are working out the language in Phase 1 of their Trade, as the US postponed the increase in Tariffs the other day, which China will increase their Agricultural products (estimated between $40-$50 Billion).  However, there is a Bill being introduced in the Senate that will look into a Review in Hong Kongs status, as they enjoy special treatment in terms of visas, tariffs, etc...  This is thought of being abused by the Chinese.  The Chinese has threatened to retaliate, if this Bill passes.  There are a few Fed Members speaking today, but there hasn't been any Market moving comments made by anybody.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are at 1.76%.

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Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  September was not kind to Retail Sales, as they report a contraction of 0.3% in September; and when you exclude big ticket items, like Autos, then they dropped 0.1%.  This report increased the likelyhood of the Fed cutting rates at it's next FOMC from 78% to 90% chance.  Business Inventories remain unchanged MoM in August.  However, today's bright spot, lies with the Home Builder's Index, which measures the confidence level for Home Builders.  It jumped from 68 to 71 in October, which is a 20 month high. Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released, which will give us a more Micro-Economic viewpoint of the US Economy.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on recent bills passed by the US House of Representatives that take aim at support for the Hong Kong Protests, which will likely lead to China's ire.  Also, the Fed has begun a form of QE by buying $65 Billion of short-term Treasuries per month in order to create more liquidity and flatten out the Yield Curve.  This was first reported by BofJ last month, in order to protect it's Banking system.  There will be a few Fed Members speaking again today.  Also, more Q3 Corporate Earnings will be released, which will include Netflix, which many investors are awaiting.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 11bps, which may lead to Lenders to provide better pricing on Mortgage Rates, compared to where we closed yesterday.  There was a weakening in the Market yesterday, so Rates worsened in the late morning (PST).  Yields are down only 1bps to 1.76%.

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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing improved a bit in the NY region in September, as the Empire State Index rose from 2.0 in August to 4.0.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as we begin the Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports.  Today, we're seeing the Financial Sector, which seems to be a bit Mixed.  We have a few Fed Members speaking today, so we'll be listening for insight into the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is currently Down 8bps, after starting the morning higher.  Mortgage Rates on the West Coast should be about the same as what we saw on Friday's close, while East Coast may see a price change for the Worst, as the start was much higher.  Yields are currently sitting at 1.76% and going up against it's next ceiling (the Fibonacci level) after surpassing it's 25- and 50 DMA.

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Friday, October 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment improved in October rising from 93.2 to 96.0.  Stocks are getting a huge lift this morning on optimism for a US and China Trade Deal, as President Trump tweeted that it's going very well and he's meeting the Vice Premier today.  Also, there is some optimism in the UK after a meeting between Ireland and England on a path from the EU may be feasible afterall.  Later today, there will be a few Fed Members speaking, including Fed Member Rosengren, whom is 1 of 3 dissenters from the last FOMC.  MBS is continuing it's downward trend, as Investment dollars flow from the safe haven of bonds to equities.  MBS is down another 31bps (after closing down 37bps yesterday).  Mortgage Rates have risen as a result.  Yields are storming up the chart, and are currently at 1.75%.

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Thursday, October 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from last week's 220k number to 210k, which is a good sign for Jobs.  Also, on the agenda is Consumer Inflation by the way of Consumer Price Index, which remained Unchanged from the previous month (MoM); and it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  When you remove the Food and Energy data, then you have the Core CPI.  It rose only 0.1% MoM, but it's YoY remained unchanged at 2.4%.  This bode well for investors because they believe it will make it easier for the Fed to continue cutting rates because inflation remains under control.  Stocks are Up again this morning, as optimistic sentiment continues with China's visit to the US today to start the Trade Negotiatoins.  There are several things by both sides whom are trying to diffuse the standoff and move in a positive direction.  There are a few Fed Members  whom will be speaking today, so Investors will look for clues to the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates have risen a bit.  They're testing it's double floor of support (50- and 25 DMA).  While Yields have climbed to 1.64% and pushing Up against it's 50 DMA.

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Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a pretty slow day today, as we only have the FOMC Minutes being released later this morning (around 11am PST).  Stocks are rebounding this morning on new optimism between US and China Trade negotiations.  Reports are coming out that we may have a limited deal coming soon.  So, this is boosting stocks!  MBS is Down 9bps so far, after 2 days of testing it's ceiling and close in negative territory.  Stochastic Chart indicates possible trend reversal, which we have some room with MBS until we hit a double floor (25- and 50 DMA) of support.  Yields have climbed back up to 1.56%.

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