Friday, December 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/6/19 NonFarm Payrolls surprised everybody with their HUGE number for November, which 266k jobs were created; along with positive revisions to the prior 2 months by 41k. Forecasts called for 180k, which we thought was a stretch, but this Positive News is welcomed! The Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%, which is at a 50 year low. Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% in November. Consumer Sentiment rose in December from 96.8 to 99.2. Overall, a great day! Stocks are Up on the data from this morning. Everything is pointing to progress on the Phase One Agreement between US and China. MBS is currently Down 3bps, even though it started the much lower. Same for yesterday, which leads to Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing. Yields continue it's rise, which it's sitting around 1.83% now. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/5/19 The Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 203k (a 7 month low) for last week. Of course, last week was a holiday shortened week for Thanksgiving, so take it with a grain of salt. Factory Orders rose by 0.3% in October (exceeding the 0.2% forecasts). Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory, but shortly after, they turned Negative. There were more positive comments about the US/China Trade Deal, as the Chinese Ministry commented that their representatives are closely working with the US; and President Trump reiterated the optimism during his visit with Chancellor Merkel yesterday. But Investors are tiring of the back-and-forth rhetoric and may be taking a "let's see" approach. Meanwhile, MBS is currently down 11bps, so Mortgage Rates have slightly worsened. However, they may rebound a bit tomorrow, if the Jobs data don't meet the forecast of 180k, which is a bit of a stretch. Of course, if an Agreement has been reached between the US/China, then all bets are off. Yields have risen to 1.80% now. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/4/19 The ADP Employment Report disappointed today, as it reported only 67k new jobs for November and a revised lowered number (by 4k) in October's numbers. The Markit Services PMI remained Unchanged at 51.6 in November; while, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 54.7% to 53.9% in November. However, Stocks are Up this morning on a report by Bloomberg that the US and China are closer to a Phase One Deal despite all of the rhetoric. This news is superseding the poor jobs data today. Meanwhile, MBS is Down 8bps, and if you factor yesterday's close (well off from yesterday's highs of +42bps) at +25bps, then Lenders will tend to price Mortgage Rates a little worse today. Yields are clawing their way back and have reached 1.77%. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/3/19 We don't have any data from the Economic Calendar today; however, tomorrow will kick off with the first of 3 Jobs data to be released this week with the ADP Report. Stocks are heavily in the Red today, as comments by President Trump regarding a Chinese Trade Agreement happening any time soon is souring the Markets; along with more Tariff talk (not only Argentina/Brazil from yesterday's reports, but also upcoming Tariffs on Chinese goods on Dec. 15th, and EU for illegal subsidies to AirBus. MBS is rallying on this news, as it's Up 42bps, so Mortgage Rates improve. Yields have fallen all the way down to 1.70% (below all of it's previous floors of support). Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Monday, December 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 12/2/19 We have 2 manufacturing indexes to report today. The first is the Markit Manufacturing PMI slightly rose from 52.2 to 52.6 in November; however, the ISM Manufacturing Index (the "gold" standard and carries more weight) dropped from 48.3% to 48.1%. Anything below 50 is considered Contraction. Construction Spending continued it's decline, as it dropped 0.8% in October. Stocks started the morning in Positive territory on positive manufacturing out of China, but quickly dropped (DOW and NASDAQ both are down over 100) on the Manufacturing Data, and possible Trade Concerns (now with Brazil and Argentina). MBS is Down 16bps and dropped below all of it's Support levels. Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit, as a result. This is due to an article that published a comment by Fed Chair Powell that he is willing to allow inflation to heat up a bit, which does not bode well for MBS/Bonds. This is because inflation is it's worst enemy, as it devalues the MBS/Bonds value over time. Yields have spiked to 1.83% and above all of it's resistance levels. Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/27/19 Weekly Jobless Claims scaled back from the previous reporting to 213k people applying for first time benefits.  The GDP's 2nd revision for the Q3 came in a little higher, from 1.9% to 2.1%.  We'll see the final revision next month!  Durable Goods Orders (including the data without Transportation) rose 0.6% in October, as many expected another decline.  The manufacturing in the Chicago region improved a little, even though it's still in contraction territory, as the Chicago PMI came in from 43.2 to 46.3 in November.  Personal Income remained Unchanged in October; however, Consumer Spending rose 0.3%, wihich hopefully is a good indicator heading into the Holiday Season!  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% in October, while it's YoY remained at 1.3%; however the Core PCE (without Food or Energy, and the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation) rose 0.1%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6% -The Fed is targeting for a 2.0% rate!  Pending Home Sales dropped 1.7% in October, which NAR attributed it to lack of inventory and slightly higher rates in October from previous month.  Stocks are in Positive Territory based on today's data.  MBS is Down 14bps, so Mortgage Rates have worsened a little bit today.  Yields have climbed it's way Up to 1.76%.

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Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 11/26/19 The Case Shiller HPI rose in September from 3.1% to 3.2%.  Consumer Confidence slightly slipped from 125.9 to 125.5 in November.  Forecasts were calling for an increase to 128.2.  New Home Sales had a large revisions to it's September numbers, going from 701k to 738k, which technically, it dropped to 733k in October based on the revision.  This will most likely be misconstrued in the Media into some negative news, but don't be misled with the misinformation.  Stocks continue to climb on preliminary agreement to a Phase One between the US and China.  Also, Fed Chair Powell had optimistic view of the US economy last night, which is sticking well with investors.  The good news is that MBS is also rising, and is currently Up 6bps.  Couple that with yesterday's late rally close Up 16bps), which Improves pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have fallen below it's 50 DMA and currently sits a bit under 1.74%.

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