Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/24/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Due to short week this week, we have a lot of data crammed into today.  We'll start with Building Permits, which improved (slightly) in October.  It went from 1.65 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.653 million in October.  New Home Sales had a pretty steep revision in September, going from 800k seasonally adjusted units to 742k.  In October, it was reported at 745k.  After revisions, it improved, but it's far from September's initial report.  Q3 GDP came out with it's 2nd look (final look will be in December), which moved up by 0.1%, to 2.1%.  Durable Goods Orders continued to show a negative trend, which it dropped by 0.5% in October; however, if you remove transportation, then it rose by 0.5%.  The drop in airplane orders, which are large orders, can really manipulate the numbers to look worse/better than what they really are.  Initial Jobless Claims broke below the 200k last week, as it reported 199k applied for first time benefits.  Personal Income rose 0.5% in October; while, Consumer Spending rose 1.3%.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 67.4 in November, according to the UofM Survey.  Like the CPI showed a few weeks ago, PCE shows a spike in consumer inflation for October.  The PCE jumped up 0.6% in October; while it's YoY rose from 4.4% in September to 5.0% in October.  When you exclude food & energy, then you have Core PCE (or also known as Real Inflation), which rose 0.4% in October; and it's YoY rose from 3.6% in September to 4.1% in October.  As I was working on this video, the FOMC Minutes were being released.  The Market was starting to worsen, as they were reviewing the release.  Fed Member, Mary Daly from San Francisco, had stated earlier in the morning that they Fed may taper quicker, if the inflation persists and jobs data continues to progress.  This statement may be a preview of the Minutes, and the Investors are preparing for it.  MBS were Down 11bps, but were trading approximately down 5-6 bps before the FOMC Minutes release.  Lenders had priced in worse pricing for Mortgage Rates today, but it could potentially worsen more.  Meanwhile, Yields had reached 1.69%, but subsided down to around 1.65%.  After the FOMC release, then it too, started to worsen; and it was up to 1.66% at the time of this video.  I won't be doing any videos the remainder of this week, so the next will be Monday!  Have a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving week!

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/23/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 58.7 in October to 57.0 in November.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped up from 58.4 in October to 59.1 in November.  Anything above 50 in either index constitutes expansion.  The 7 year Treasury Auction went pretty well, and appears to be helping (somewhat) MBS/Treasuries.  MBS is off it's earlier low and is currently Down 9bps; however, most Lenders priced their ratesheets prior to the Auction while pricing was worse.  So, Mortgage Rates are priced a little higher this morning.  Also, Yields have been hovering around 1.66% and 1.65%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Monday, November 22, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/22/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Existing Home Sales rose 0.8% in October, going from 6.29 million seasonally adjusted annualized units to 6.34 million.  The big news today is the renomination of Jerome Powell for Fed Chair.  Unfortunately for us, the Market wasn't too thrilled.  The Bond/Treasury Market were more receptive to Brainard, apparently.  As a result, MBS is Down 33bps, which the poor 5 year Treasury Auction showing contributed some to the decline.  This means that Mortgage Rates worsened toward the worse levels felt last week.  Also, Yields have spiked up to 1.62%.  This will be a short week and may not see a lot of volume trading; however, there could be some volatility due to mostly Day Traders in the Market, while the Big Hedgefunds celebrate Thanksgiving.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Friday, November 19, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/19/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There is no economic data to report today.  The Markets are responding to reports out of Austria regarding national lockdown due to higher COVID cases.  Other European Countries are keeping that option open pending how their case loads trend.  Investors are a bit jittery, as we approach winter and cold season happens.  Last thing that anybody wants is another lockdown.  Meanwhile, the ECB announced that they don't anticipate any rate hikes in 2022 and still feel that inflation is transitory.  Later today, Fed Member Clarida (whom is the #2 Fed Chief) will be speaking, so Markets could react.  MBS is benefitting from the Covid reaction, which it jumped way up over the 25 DMA when the Market opened, but it's currently off from it's earlier highs.  However, it's still Up 13 bps from yesterday's close; so, Mortgage Rates are showing a bit of improvement.  Yields pummeled all the way down to 1.53% (below it's 25 DMA).  Next week will be a shortened week, due to Thanksgiving, so trading in the Markets will be less in volume, but could see some volatility due to day time traders.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Thursday, November 18, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/18/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region spiked in November, as the Philly Fed Index jumped from 23.8 in October to 39.0 in November.  Initial Jobless Claims dropped from last week's 269k, which was revised from 267k, to 268k.  Another bright spot on the Economic Calendar is the Leading Economic Indicator, which rose 0.9% in October; this is after it's September's data was revised higher, from 0.2% to 0.7%.  Stocks are Mixed today based on the Q3 Earnings Reports that are still being released.  Investors are becoming a bit jittery regarding the potential for another  uptick in COVID cases, as we approach the winter season and people spend more time indoors.  Meanwhile, MBS is showing some continued improvement, as it's currently Up about 5bps.  This won't impact Mortgage Rates much, as Mortgage Rates will remain Unchanged; however, there may be some minor improvement with the pricing.  Also, Yields are working their way down again, as they approach it's 25 DMA.  It's currently sitting just under 1.59%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/17/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped 0.7% in October, as it's September data initially reported 1.555 million seasonally adjusted units to 1.530 million.  Forecasts called for 1.576 million; however, it was reported at 1.520 million.  Shortage of Labor and Materials still seem to be the issues for Home Builders.  Yesterday, we saw surge in Home Builder Confidence, which you'll find in today's report, as Building Permits rose 4.0% in October.  It went from 1.586 million in September to 1.650 in October.  These will be future Housing Starts.  Stocks are all in Negative Territory, as Investors seem to be a bit leery about the continued push to new highs; and next week begins the Holiday season with Thanksgiving.  MBS started the morning lower, but has since steadily risen to +14bps; so, Mortgage Rates will be a little better priced today.  Also, Yields have helped by their slide down to 1.60%.

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.



Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Daily Market Report 11/16/21

 http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Retail Sales spiked up 1.7% in October.  This is one of the better numbers we've been seeing since all the Stimulus checks went out.  Industrial Production jumped up 1.6% in October.  Home Builders are more confident, as the NHIB Home Builders Index rose 3 points to 83 in November.  Lastly, Business Inventories rose 0.7% in September.  Stocks are up on the Retail data; while MBS had an adverse reaction to it.  The concern with investors is still Inflation.  If we end up having to raise rates prior to the completion of the Fed's tapering, then it won't be a good sign.  Luckily, MBS has subsided from it's earlier losses, and are now Up 3bps.  Mortgage Rates are currently more in line with the same pricing found after yesterday's Market close (or Unchanged).  Yields are still about the same (at 1.62%).

Please subscribe to my YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt

Also, these videos are base on my views and not represented by any other entity, but my own.  I work as a Loan Officer, and if you'd like information on Mortgages, or how I can assist you, then please direct message me.