Friday, January 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/18/19 We have a few items on the Economic Calendar today.  The Industrial Production rose 0.3% (in line with forecast) in December.  Capacity Utilization rose from 78.6% to 78.7% in December.  Meanwhile, Consumer dropped from 98.3 to 90.7, which is most likely due to sentiment of the prolonged Gov't Shutdown.  Stocks are on fire this morning, as a WSJ report came out yesterday, which the White House refuted, that the US Negotiators my hold back on the Tariffs on the Chinese, as a gesture of Good Faith.  Investors are feeling very optimistic about it, as the Stock Market continues to heat up!  MBS broke thru an important floor of support yesterday, and is testing it's next floor ( the 25 DMA).  As a result, Mortgage Rates rose today.  Yields are climbing today, and are currently at 2.79%.                                                                                       

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Thursday, January 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/17/19 Housing Starts and Building Reports data will be delayed due to the Gov't Shutdown.  Today, we have the Weekly Jobless Claims, which came in at 213k.  Today's number is important because it represents the "Sample" number for the BLS' Jobs Report for January, which should look strong based on this number.  Also, Manufacturing improved in the Philly area, which the Philly Fed Index increased from 9.1 to 17.  This was on the heels of a disappointing number for the NY area yesterday.  Stocks started trade in the Red, but have since improved to Mixed.  Banks continue to disappoint in Q4, as Morgan Stanley missed, and comments by French Bank Societe Generale, only reinforced what most Banks are stating is a poor Capital Markets is dragging their numbers down.  MBS is currently down 6bps and testing the floor of support again.  Yields have risen to 2.74%.  Mortgage Rates have remained steady most of this week, as it trades in a sideways pattern.                                                                       

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Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/16/19 Because of the Gov't Shutdown, we're not receiving a full report of Economic Data, such as Retail Sales, which would have been released today.  However, the Home Builder's Index shows it's confidence rising in January from 56 to 58.  Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released, which will allow Investors to review the Micro Economics of the US, as each regional Fed reports it's findings.  The Stock Market is trading in Positive Territory, as BofA and Goldman Sachs have hit their Q4 numbers.  Also, lifting the Investors moods are news that China will be injecting $83 Billion into their Economy.  Later today, there will be a Vote of No Confidence for Theresa May in the UK after the defeat of her Brexit proposal yesterday.  It is expected that she will survive the vote.  MBS is down 6bps this morning and testing the Floor of Support.  Rates are about the same as it's been all week, as it's been trading in a Sideways pattern.  Yields have climbed up to 2.73%.                                                               

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Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/15/19 On today's Economic Calendar is Inflation news in the Wholesale Sector for the month of December.  The Producer Price Index dropped 0.2%, while the Core PPI (excluding food & energy) dropped 0.1%.  Manufacturing data from the NY region had a sharp decline, as the Empire State Index dropped from 11.5 to 3.9 in January.  The Stock Market is trading in Positive Territory this morning, even on the heels on disappointing numbers from Chase (2nd large bank in a row to report), as China announces Stimulus Package to boost the Markets.  Later tonight, the UK Parliament will vote on the Brexit proposal, which doesn't seem too popular.  Both MBS and Yields are sitting in Unchanged Positions (moving side-ways), so there's been no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates.                                                                                                           
 If you want update on the Market throughout the day, then follow me on Twitter @MikeBjork                                                                                 
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Monday, January 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/14/19 There are no economic news to report today.  The Market is reacting to disapppointing Import/Export Data from China, which is re-hashing Investors' concerns over a Global Economic Slowdown.  Also, Q4 Corporate Earnings Reports start off the week, which Citi Group missed and is bringing down the Financial Sector.  The Gov't Shutdown is ongoing, which is now the longest on record.  Stocks are Down on the disappointing news from China and some of the Q4 Corporate Earnings Reports that were released.  MBS is currently unchanged, along with Yields (2.70%) from Friday's close, so pricing on Mortgage Rates remain the same.                                                                                         
For More Updates throughout the day, then Follow Me on Twitter @MikeBjork                                                                                                    
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Friday, January 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/11/19 Today, only the Consumer Price Index data was released on the Economic Calendar for the month of December.  CPI dropped 0.1% from November, and it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 1.9% due to the drop in Oil prices.  The Core CPI (removing food and energy) rose 0.2%, which it's YoY remained unchanged at 2.2%.  This report is important to the Fed when gauging inflation on the consumer level, even though the PCE is favored more so.  This is the data that helps to determine if they continue with their rate hikes.  They like to see that the YoY level to keep at the 2.0% level, which is healthy for the economy.  Stocks are rising off their earlier lows this morning (still in negative territory at the time this was created).  MBS is benefitting from the "flight to safety", as investment dollars are moving from Equities to Bonds.  It's currently up 17bps, which is an improvement in Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slide down to 2.70%.                                                                                                                               
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Thursday, January 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 1/10/19 Today on the economic news is the Initial Jobless Claims, which dropped 17k (from last week's numbers), from 233k to 216k.  We're watching this data to determine if it's bottomed out, which could lead to our own economic slowdown (as most companies tend to layoff employees when business slows).  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on renewed worries over Global Slowdown, as more disappointing economic data came out from China; also, they're getting a bit restless over the Gov't Shutdown.  MBS is unchanged from yesterday, so Mortgage Rates remain unchanged.  Yesterday's close above the Floor of Support was important because it held the current trendline intact, which will allow Mortgage Rates to continue their improvement.  The floor is being tested, so we still need to be cautious!  Yields are currently hanging at 2.72%.                                                                                         

Follow me on Twitter @MikeBjork to keep up with the Market.                                                                               
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