Monday, June 1, 2020

Daily Market Report 6/1/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few manufacturing reports today, which the first is Markit Manufacturing PMI remained Unchanged at 39.8 in May; and it's counter-part, the ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 41.5% to 43.1% in May.  Below 50 on these indexes mean contraction.  Construction Spending dropped 2.9% in April, which was lower than the 6.8% drop forecasted.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning on the ISM data.  China reported positive manufacturing data on their Caixin index, which showed it just above 50 (expanding territory).  Tensions are growing between the 2, as US is removing Special Status on Hong Kong; and China is pulling back on their purchases of US' Agriculture.  Protests around the US raises more concerns, including a 2nd wave of covid-19.  MBS is Unchanged from Friday's close, and Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as well.  The 25 DMA and 50 DMA are nearly crossing, which is about to force the MBS to move in either direction (higher or lower).  If it rises, then we will see improvements in Mortgage Rates; and the opposite will happen, if it drops.  Yields are facing similar pattern, as it sits just below it's 50 DMA at 0.68%.

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Friday, May 29, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/29/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Personal Income rose 10.5% in April.  We think this anomaly is due to the disparity based on the lower pay scale employees losing work during the pandemic.  Consumer Spending dropped 13.6% in April, as much of the economy was closed.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) dropped 0.5% in April, while it's YoY dropped from 1.3% to 0.5%; similarly, the Core PCE (which removes food & energy; and Fed's favorite gauge for inflation) dropped 0.4%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.0%.  The Fed's target rate for Core PCE is 2.0%, which this new numbers greatly distances from it.  The manufacturing sector in the Chicago region continued to decline in May, as the Chicago PMI reported it dropping from 35.4 to 32.3.  There wasn't much movement from Consumers, as Consumer Sentiment remained fairly idle.  It rose from 71.8 to 72.3.  Stocks are Down this morning on an upcoming news conference with President Trump, whom will talk about China.  This has investors a bit on edge.  Fed Chair Powell was webcasted this morning, while he did an Q&A at Princeton.  He mentioned that he has plenty of tools to help the economy and isn't currently looking to go into a negative interest rate environment.  MBS is in a very tight range and currently Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates will have a little improvement in pricing this morning.  The president's news conference could be a catalyst to which direction MBS will move, as it's becoming squeezed between it's 25 DMA and 50 DMA.  Yields are down and sitting just atop it's 25 DMA at 0.66%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
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Thursday, May 28, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/28/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims continued the lower trend when it was reported that 2.12 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, which is down from 2.45 million the week prior.  The 2nd look at the Q1 GDP worsened, going from -4.8% to -5.0%.  We'll get our final number for GDP next month.  Durable Goods Orders dropped 17.2% in April; however, when you remove Transportation from the equation, then it dropped 7.4%.  Interruptions in the Housing Market really showed in April, as NAR reported that Pending Home Sales dropped by 21.8%.  This is the biggest decline on record.  Stocks are Up on optimism of the economy reopening; and shrugging off the tensions between US and China.  This euphoria will probably be short-lived, as they realize it will take time for the economy to rebound and the tensions with China are real.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 3bps and just under the 50 DMA.  The 50 DMA is a floor of support, but MBS is running out of room between the 25 DMA and 50 DMA.  If we can get MBS to break above the 25 DMA, then we can see some improvement with Mortgage Rates; however, if it breaks below it's 50 DMA, then we'll see Mortgage Rates worsen.  So far, Mortgage Rates seem to be Unchanged from yesterday.  Yields are facing similar conundrum, as it's Up against it's 50 DMA at 0.70%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/27/20w

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We'll be able to get a better view of the US Economy when the Fed releases their Beige Book around 11am PST today.  This provides a Micro view of each region of the US.  Stocks started the morning off in Positive Territory; however, Technology Stocks started to go into the Red, as tensions continue to mount with China and the concerns with protests in Hong Kong.  This brought the NASDAQ into Negative Territory.  MBS also, started in the Red and just above it's 50 DMA this morning, but has since moved upwards (Up 13bps currently) against it's 25 DMA now.  As the 25- and 50- DMA begin to tighten, the MBS will need to choose which side of the lines it will move.  We'll be watching this very carefully!  Yields have slipped down to 0.67%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/26/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller HPI rose from 4.2% YoY in February to 4.4% in March; however, the FHFA HPI dropped from 6.1% in February to 5.9% in March.  Consumer Confidence began to rise in May, as it went from 85.7 to 86.6.  Also, a bit of a surprising report, is New Home Sales, which went from 619k annualized units in March; with forecasts calling for 480k units in April, but the actual number of annualized units in April rose to 623k.  Stocks are well into Positive Territory this morning, as optimism grows on possible vaccines and data reporting improvement in the economy after states begin to reopen.  However, it's not quite affecting the Markets today, but tensions continue to mount between US and China.  MBS is Down 8bps and is currently sitting just above it's 50 DMA.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  However, there will be a movement coming soon, as both the 25 DMA and 50 DMA begin to squeeze it's movement, which will push MBS in either direction.  This will cause MBS to either improve or worsen.  If they break below the 50 DMA, then there's a lot of room for Mortgage Rates to rise.  Meanwhile, Yields are Up against it's 50 DMA and sitting at 0.70%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
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Friday, May 22, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/22/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are Down this morning after reflecting on this week's events and heading into a long weekend.  President Trump was asked a question regarding a possible 2nd wave, which he responded that we'll put out fires, but we won't be closing the economy.  MBS is currently Down 2bps, so Mortgage Rates continue to be Unchanged.  Yields are Down to 0.65% and trying to remain above it's 25 DMA.  If it breaks below it, then it could be a good sign to push MBS upwards and see improved pricing in Mortgage Rates.  Fingers crossed!

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE

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Thursday, May 21, 2020

Daily Market Report 5/21/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims continued it downward trend in people applying for unemployment benefits, as it dropped from 2.69 million in last week's report to 2.44 million in this week's report.  The Philly Fed improved from -56.6 April to -43.1 in May.  This index reports the activity level of manufacturing in the Philadelphia area.  Meanwhile, Markit PMI released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Services) for May.  Markit Manufacturing PMI improved from 36.1 in April to 39.8 in May; and Markit Services PMI improved from 26.7 to 36.9.  These last few indices indicate that we bottomed out in April and on way to recovery, but how long it will take is uncertain.  Also, we have the Existing Home Sales for April, which dropped from 5.27 million annualized units in March to 4.33 million, which is approximately 18% drop.  Leading Economic Indicators improved from -7.4% in March to -4.4% in April.  Stocks are Down so far today on the economic data; corporate earnings reports and building tensions between US and China (again).  MBS is currently Down 5bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are down to 0.67%.

If you're located in California and looking to either buy a home or refinance and would like my assistance, then please click on the following link and answer a few questions: HERE
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