Friday, July 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment slightly improved from June to July, as it went from 98.2 to 98.4, even though forecasts were calling for higher number, 99.0.  Stocks are in Positive Territory.  Microsoft is a Big Winner, as they blew out their numbers!  More Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  The Big news came from comments by NY Fed President Williams, whom spoke yesterday on the importance of cutting rates sooner than later.  As a result, both the Stock and Bond Market rallied.  Today, however, they're walking backwards and state the context of his comments yesterday were in reference to academic study and no bearing of the upcoming FOMC.  As a result, he's receiving a lot of criticism.  MBS is Down (currently 5bps, even though it started further down at -11bps), as a result of today's comments by a rep of Fed Williams.  However, they're now above the Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates received a Price Improvement yesterday, however, today, we're priced at the same levels as yesterday's close.  Yields are sitting at 2.04% and just above it's Fibonacci level and below it's 25 DMA.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, July 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: This week's Initial Jobless Claims rose from last week's revised number (from 209k) of 208k to this week's of 216k.  This week's number is important, as it will be used by the BLS with their Jobs numbers for July.  This will be released Aug. 2nd.  Manufacturing rebounded, "Big Time", in the Philadelphia region, as the Philly Fed jumped Up from being near contraction in June, at 0.3 to  21.8 in July, which is the highest number for this year.  Also, Leading Indicators show the economy beginning to slow down to -0.3% in June.  These numbers are usually good outlook for the economy in about 6 months.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning.  More Earnings Reports are being released.  Some of the Big Names mentioned were United Health and Netflix.  Netflix lost 126k subscriptions in the US last month.  Steven Mnuchin tries to calm Investors perception on the US' Trade Talk with China, that it's still ongoing.  MBS had a good rally yesterday and closed right at the Fibonacci level, which is our Ceiling of Resistance.  We've been testing it since early June.  We're sitting between it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates remained Unchanged after yesterday's improvement, as they're just down about 2bps.  Yields fell down to it's 25 DMA and are sitting on this Floor of Support, which is at 2.07%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.265 million annualized units in May to 1.253 million in June.  Building Permits dropped from 1.299 million annualized units in May to 1.220 million in June.  The Fed Beige Book, which reports the Fed's economic view of the various regions around the US, will be released at 11am PST.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning, as more Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  B of A seems to be getting the brunt of it today even though it appeared that it had a lot of positive aspects to it's report.  Also, President Trump tweeted yesterday that the US and China are still a long ways off from reaching an agreement, and the Tariffs are still on the table.  Investors are concerned and the sentiment is still reeling in today's Market.  As I mentioned in the video, I created this video early in the day, which the Market is just starting, so a lot can change since I created this.  Currently MBS is Up 11bps, which appears to be trending upward this morning, and sitting between the 25 DMA and the Fibonacci level.  This can lead to better pricing on Mortgage Rates this morning, as Lenders on the West Coast have not yet released their pricing.  Yields have slid down to 2.09%.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Both the Headline Retail Sales and it's sub-component without Autos had the exact reading for the month of July, as it continued the 0.4% MoM growth from May-June and June-July.  As we saw from previous Manufacturing Reports in June, the Industrial Production report was stagnant (0.0%) in June.  Capacity Utilization slide from 78.1% to 77.9% in June.  Business Inventories rose 0.3% in May.  Home Builder's confidence slightly rose in July from 64 to 65, as the NAHB Home Builders Index announces.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory after hitting highs yesterday.  NASDAQ and S&P are taking a bit of a breather, while the DOW continues to hit new intra-day highs.  Corporate Earnings Reports, especially for the Banking Sector, are taking center stage.  Most of the banks are hitting their lowered expected performances.  Profit Margins are shrinking and Loan Activity is down.  MBS is currently down 11bps, and has hit -12, so many Lenders have priced in a little higher Interest Rates.  They're still sitting between it's 25- and 50 DMA.  Yields have now climbed to 2.13%, which is still in middle of it's 25- and 50 DMA.  The 50 DMA sits around the 2.20%, so it's feasible that we see Yields reach this level before we see any further improvement (lower Yields).

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Monday, July 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/15/19

http://MikesDaily MarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the NY region improved in July, as the Empire State Index rose from -8.6 to 4.3 -better than most forecasts of 0.5.  Stocks are currently in Negative Territory, after they initially started the day in Positive Territory.  Today, we got the Unofficial Start to Corporate Earnings Reports for Q2.  CitiGroup led off with great numbers, however, investors were disappointed with it's cuts in costs.  China's GDP slowed to it's slowest pace since 1992 at 6.2%; however, investors liked that the stimulus that China laid out appears to be effective, as their Industrial Production jumped from 5.0% tp 6.3% MoM and Retail Sales jumped Up 9.8%.  MBS is Up only 3bps and fighting overhead resistance at it's 25 DMA, which has become a Ceiling of Resistance.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting around 2.10% in the middle range of it's 25- and 50 DMA.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Friday, July 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inflation remains moderate in June, as it rose 0.1%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  But if you remove uncontrollable variables, as food and energy, the we have the Core PPI, which carries more weight.  It rose 0.3% in June, however, it's YoY remained at 2.3%.  Stocks continue their Upward trend this morning, after Investors were satisfied with staements made by Fed Chair Powell during the past 2 days of Congressional Testimony.  A bad 30 year Bond Auction yesterday afternoon sank the Bonds/MBS, as it closed down 34 bps, and led Lenders to reprice for higher Mortgage Rates.  This morning, we're Up 9bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday afternoon's repricing.  Yields have climbed up to 2.12% now.  Both have broken their Trend lines, which will create a Short-Term Speed Bump before we see further improvements in our Mortgage Rates.  We may see a little more worsening before it gets better in the Short-Term.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt


Thursday, July 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 209k last week.  Remember, this was a Holiday shortened week, so we could potentially see a higher number next week.  Next week's number will have added significance, as it will be the "sample" number for the BLS with their Jobs data.  Meanwhile, Inflation is still showing moderate levels via the Consumer Priced Index for the month of June.  The CPI went up 0.1%, so it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.6%.  However, the Core CPI (CPI excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% in June; and it's YoY rose from 2.0% to 2.1%.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning.  We have a few Fed Memebers speaking today, including Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, speaking before the Senate today.  He will have the same talking points, as yesterday's Congresssional Hearing, but we'll watch to be sure nothing else "pops up".  Also, there will be a 30yr Bond Auction today, which could move the Bond Market.  MBS is currently down 8bps and sitting on it's Fibonacci Level.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Meanwhile, Yields are stubbornly holding above it's 25 DMA.  We need to monitor this because if it continues to rise, then it will add pressure to MBS and Mortgage Rates will worsen.  It has a lot of room to the upside, if it elects to break the short-term trend; even though, longer term, I think it will drop more.

Please subscribe to my Blog and YouTube Channel at MikesDailyMarketRpt