Friday, June 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a lot of data on the Economic Calendar to report today.  We'll start with the Retail Sales and Retail Sales without Autos for May, which were both up 0.5%.  This was on the heels of a positive revision the previous month for both data points.  Industrial Production rose 0.4% in May.  Capacity Utilization rose from 77.9% to 78.1% in May.  However, Consumer Sentiment dropped from 100 to 97.9 in June.  It's final number will be toward the end of the month, so we'll see if the Consumer is feeling less enthused continues for the whole month.  Business Inventories rose 0.5% in April.  Stocks are down, even though we have relatively good economic data being reported, however, the Geo-Political news is taking more of a command of the Markets today.  China reported some more disappointing Economic data, which  is reminder to the Investors on an Global Economic slowdown.  Iran is denying any part in the recent Tanker attacks.  Oil prices are higher, which neither the Stock, nor Bond likes the news of higher Oil prices.  Of course, there are concerns that this could result in more tensions, and possibly with Military involvement.  Broadcom has lowered their expectations for the year, which is being attributed to the impasse between the US and China.  This is affecting the rest of the High Tech sector.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have slid down to the 2.08% range and is testing the floor of support, which is important to Yields.  If this breaks, then Mortgage Rates can continue to improve off these current rates.

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Thursday, June 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from the previous week's numbers, going from 219k to 222k.  However, the previous week's numbers were revised higher by 1k (218k to 219k).  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning.  There was a more positive tone today, as President Trump indicated that there was no timetable on any further Tariffs with China, and a deal could happen.  Oil is rising a bit this morning on news that a few tankers were attacked at the Gulf of Oman.  Iran is suspected in these attacks, as there are growing tensions between US and Iran.  MBS is only Up 2bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today.  Yields remain at 2.12%, as well.

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Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Priced Index rose only 0.1% in May, which it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.8%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose only 0.1%.  It's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 2.0%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, despite the lower Consumer Inflation data, as Investors continue to watch the drama between the US and China' Trade Talks.  President Trump recently tweeted that he's holding up the talks, and his sentiment is that the deal should be great for both US and China, otherwise, there's no sense in making an agreement.  This is souring the Markets a bit.  Also, there are Mass Protests in Hong Kong over recent laws that will allow China to extradite from Hong Kong to the mainland.  This isn't sitting well with the people of Hong Kong.  MBS is Up 9bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.12%.

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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NFIB Small Business, which measures the confidence among Small Businesses, rose from 103.5 in April to 105.0 in May.  Producer Priced Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose 0.1% in May.  However, it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 1.8%, further illustrating that inflation is still fairly tame.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as China plans a new Stimulus project aimed to re-build it's infracture within it's local municipalities and is issuing Bonds for this project.  MBS are Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are now at 2.15%.

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Monday, June 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are Up this morning after it was announced over the weekend that the US and Mexico reached an agreement over the migration issue, so the US will not impose sanctions.  Steven Mnuchin and PBC's Yi Gang had reportedly very candid and constructive talks while at the G20 meeting.  Reports came out of China that their Exports rose slightly and their imports dropped sharply.  MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates rose slightly.  Yields rose to 2.14%.

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Friday, June 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nonfarm Payroll really disappointed in May, as only 75k new jobs were created.  Also, there were revisions from the previous 2 months, which were lowered by 75k combined.  Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%.  Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% in May.  Wholesale Inventories rose 0.8% in April.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as today's Bad News (in terms of disappointing Job Numbers) is feeling like Good News because the sentiment is the Fed will cut Interest Rates sooner than later (possibly this summer).  There's been some progress made on the talks with Mexico to help curb the influx of people trying to cross the US Borders.  Not sure if it's enough progress for President Trump to halt the Tariffs on Monday.  Not much has been changed between US and China.  The People's Bank of China was commented that they have enough tools to be able to stimulate their economy even during a Trade Spat with the US.  MBS is Up 17bps, so Mortgage Rates Improved today.  Yields continue their decline, as they reach 2.07%.

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Thursday, June 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rose this week from 215k from previous week to 218k.  These are still low numbers, which is why Investors shrugged off the ADP number yesterday.  They're anticipating approximately 190k new jobs for tomorrow's BLS' report.  Q1 Productivity was revised a bit lower, from 3.6% to 3.4%.  Unit Labor Costs (Q1) was revised further declines from -0.9% to -1.6%.  This can help keep inflation low.  Stocks have shifted into Negative Territory this morning, as the Market Sentiment became more risk aversed due to the Dovish Speak with Central Speakers and US' Trade Talks with Mexico and China.  The ECB held their rate at -0.4% and pledged to maintain that rate for 2019.  Earlier this week, US Fed Members also had a dovish tone to their speeches, which many are led to believe a rate hike will come.  President Trump is ready to add Tariffs to Mexico on Monday, as he stated the Talks haven't progressed enough to warrant a halt to the Tariffs.  Also, it is believed that the US will carry out the Tariffs on China's remaining $300 Billion Goods after G20 Meeting at the end of June (the 29th).  MBS is Up 5bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are now at 2.10%.

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