Friday, August 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.241 million in June to 1.191 million in July.  Even though this headline number shows a drop, the good news is if you dig deeper, then you'll understand that the drop was due to drop with Multi-Family.  There was actually an increase in Single Family, which is up approximately 2% YoY.  Building Permits, our Future Housing Starts, rose from 1.232 million in June to 1.336 million in July.  Consumer Sentiment dropped from 98.4 in July to 92.1 August.  Stocks are Up today, as the data from the Economic Calendar is spurring the positive movement today, as this week's volatility from the China aftermath and Inverted Yields are placed on the back-burner for now.  MBS is down 25bps from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates have worsened, but they're still Up from Wednesday's pricing.  Yields inched Up to 1.57% this morning.

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Thursday, August 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have a lot of data on the Economic Calendar being released.  Initial Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 220k this week.  Retail Sales rose 0.7% in July; and when you exclude Autos, then it rose 1.0%.  Productivity rose 2.3% for Q2.  Unit Labor Costs rose 2.4% for Q2.  Empire State Index rose from 4.3 in July to 4.8 in August.  Philly Fed Index dropped from 21.8 to 16.8.  Industrial Production dropped 0.2% in July.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.8% to 77.5% in July.  Business Inventories remained Unchanged in June.  NAHB Home Builders Index rose from 65 to 66 in August.  For more clarification on this data, then please check out the video.  Stocks started the day off very volatile due to comments by China on Tariffs and Negotiations.  We saw swings to the low when they commented about Tariffs being placed in September to change of tone later in the day when they stated they'd like to accomplish a mutual beneficial agreement between the 2 nations.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as Walmart reported bullish earnings, along with strong Retail Sales.  MBS is Up 31bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday, and are about to pressure it's overhead ceiling of resistance.  Yields have continued to slide, which are currently sitting below it's 2nd floor of support.  It's currently at 1.534%  Next floor of support is 1.325%, which is the Yields All-Time Low.

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Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no economic data to report today.  Stocks are being driven downward today (DOW down over 600 so far) on worries of the final Yield Curve Inversion.  The 2 year Yield finally inverted with the 10 year Yield.  This is important because it's been a very good indicator or signal that either we're in a recession or will be heading into a recession.  Again, this is not what causes a recession, but just an indicator or signal (so, not to be mistaken of what puts us into a recession).  This, coupled with more negative data from around the world, is spooking the Markets.  As a result, the MBS is Up 31bps, so we have improvement with our Mortgage Rate pricing; however, the Market did deteriorate a bit more yesterday afternoon, and there was a re-price for worse pricing.  Yields are testing it's first floor of support, and sits at 1.586% currently.

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Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidence for Small Businesses, rose from 103.3 in June to 104.7 in July.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in July, and 1.6% to 1.8% YoY.  However, if you remove the food and energy components (which are volatile), then you have the Core CPI.  The Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in July and 2.1% to 2.2% YoY.  Stocks have reversed course and trading in Positive Territory (DOW is up over 400, thus far) on news that the US will either scrap altogether or just delay certain components of the $300 Billion Chinese Goods due to go into effect Sept. 1.  Also, the Trade Reps plan to be meeting again within the next 2 weeks.  Investors are closely watching the happenings in Hong Kong, as China is becoming more aggressive with their crackdown on Protestors.  MBS is currently down 9bps, however, that's not enough movement to change Mortgage Rates.  Yields have climbed to 1.68%.  Investors are watching the last possible inversion between the 2yr and 10yr, as they are now about 3bps from being inverted.

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Monday, August 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are mostly following the news on US/China trade negotiations and Hong Kong.  The Yuan is getting weaker against the US Dollar, which the US has accused China of being a currency manipulator.  Also, tensions in Hong Kong continue to rise, as Police step up their tactics in a more aggressive manner, which is leading to bloodshed; as a result, the Hong Kong airport cancelled all flights because thousands of protestors are occupying the terminals.  MBS is currently Up 9bps and floating in mid-range of it's floor and ceiling.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's Close.  Yields have fallen to 1.66% with it's next floor of support at 1.595%, which is the current Low point it reached about a week ago.

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Friday, August 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in July; however, it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  The Core PPI dropped 0.1% in July, and it's YoY dropped from 2.3% to 2.1%.  The Producer Price Index provides us insight to possible inflation to the Consumer, as it's inflationary data from the Wholesale sector.  This doesn't always get passed onto the Consumer, which is why it doesn't receive alot of attention.  Stocks are in the Red again this morning, as it faced a volatile week (big swings up and down).  Investors are still watching the US and China standoff in Trade negotiations, as China has cut purchases of Agriculture from the US; and US has been upholding US Businesses from conducting business with Huawei.  Italy wants to dissolve the parliament for new elections, so Investors are a bit jittery for any Italian Bond holdings.  MBS is currently down between 5-8bps.  Mortgage Rates had an intra-day price change yesterday afternoon and received better pricing; so, pricing this morning is better than yesterday morning's pricing, but the same as yesterday's close.  Yields are now sitting around 1.71%.

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Thursday, August 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 217k the prior week to 209k last week.  The Job Market still shows some strength.  Wholesale Inventories had 0.0% growth from May to June.  Stocks rebounded late yesterday and continued this trend this morning.  China repositioned their currency just above 7, which is a little stronger than reports yesterday at just below 7.  A poor Auction result for the 10 year Treasury Auction led to a drastic pullback to both Yields and MBS yesterday.  MBS is currently down about 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain unnchanged from yesterday's close; however, we did have a price change for the worse yesterday; so, we're a little higher than yesterday morning.  Yields have risen to 1.77%.

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