Friday, October 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Leading Economic Indicators continue to decline, which it's MoM into September dropped 0.1%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory this morning on bad economic news out of China, which shows their Economy slowing more rapidly than anticipated.  Q3 Corporate Earnings continue to report decent reports, which pleases the Investors; and various Fed Members continue with their speeches.  MBS has been trending lower and have been pushing against it's floor of support at the 100 DMA, which has been a strong support.  It's currently Unchanged from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates (also) remain Unchanged.  Like it's counter-part, Yields have been pushing up against it's Ceiling of Resistance, which is a Fibonacci level.  This level has been very strong.  It's currently sitting at 2.75%.  I'm watching the stochastic charts, which may indicate a near trend reversal.  It's not clear yet, but it does look like there may be a possibility.

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Thursday, October 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Weekly Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 214k, which this week's data is important, as it's being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of it's Job Numbers.  The numbers for both Housing Starts and Building Permits look on the surface a bit disappointing, but they're not as bad as they appear.  I'll explain.  Augusts numbers for both indexes were revised a little higher; also, the drop-off in both indexes were due to a decline in Multi-Families, whereas, single families were up a little bit.  If you dig a little deeper into the numbers, then it's not THAT bad!  So, Housing Starts dropped from the revised 1.39 million to 1.26 million.  Building Permits dropped from 1.43 million to 1.39 million.  Philly Fed, which measures the manufacturing around the Philadelphia region, dropped from 12.0 to 5.6 in October.  Industral Production declined 0.4% in September.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.9% to 77.5% in October.  Stocks are Up in early trading today.  We've been seeing fairly decent Q3 Earnings Reports thus far, even though it's relatively early in the releases.  There was an announcement that there may be a Brexit Deal in the works, which will still need to be voted by both sides' voting member.  The US and China are working out the language in Phase 1 of their Trade, as the US postponed the increase in Tariffs the other day, which China will increase their Agricultural products (estimated between $40-$50 Billion).  However, there is a Bill being introduced in the Senate that will look into a Review in Hong Kongs status, as they enjoy special treatment in terms of visas, tariffs, etc...  This is thought of being abused by the Chinese.  The Chinese has threatened to retaliate, if this Bill passes.  There are a few Fed Members speaking today, but there hasn't been any Market moving comments made by anybody.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are at 1.76%.

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Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  September was not kind to Retail Sales, as they report a contraction of 0.3% in September; and when you exclude big ticket items, like Autos, then they dropped 0.1%.  This report increased the likelyhood of the Fed cutting rates at it's next FOMC from 78% to 90% chance.  Business Inventories remain unchanged MoM in August.  However, today's bright spot, lies with the Home Builder's Index, which measures the confidence level for Home Builders.  It jumped from 68 to 71 in October, which is a 20 month high. Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released, which will give us a more Micro-Economic viewpoint of the US Economy.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory on recent bills passed by the US House of Representatives that take aim at support for the Hong Kong Protests, which will likely lead to China's ire.  Also, the Fed has begun a form of QE by buying $65 Billion of short-term Treasuries per month in order to create more liquidity and flatten out the Yield Curve.  This was first reported by BofJ last month, in order to protect it's Banking system.  There will be a few Fed Members speaking again today.  Also, more Q3 Corporate Earnings will be released, which will include Netflix, which many investors are awaiting.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 11bps, which may lead to Lenders to provide better pricing on Mortgage Rates, compared to where we closed yesterday.  There was a weakening in the Market yesterday, so Rates worsened in the late morning (PST).  Yields are down only 1bps to 1.76%.

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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing improved a bit in the NY region in September, as the Empire State Index rose from 2.0 in August to 4.0.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as we begin the Q3 Corporate Earnings Reports.  Today, we're seeing the Financial Sector, which seems to be a bit Mixed.  We have a few Fed Members speaking today, so we'll be listening for insight into the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is currently Down 8bps, after starting the morning higher.  Mortgage Rates on the West Coast should be about the same as what we saw on Friday's close, while East Coast may see a price change for the Worst, as the start was much higher.  Yields are currently sitting at 1.76% and going up against it's next ceiling (the Fibonacci level) after surpassing it's 25- and 50 DMA.

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Friday, October 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment improved in October rising from 93.2 to 96.0.  Stocks are getting a huge lift this morning on optimism for a US and China Trade Deal, as President Trump tweeted that it's going very well and he's meeting the Vice Premier today.  Also, there is some optimism in the UK after a meeting between Ireland and England on a path from the EU may be feasible afterall.  Later today, there will be a few Fed Members speaking, including Fed Member Rosengren, whom is 1 of 3 dissenters from the last FOMC.  MBS is continuing it's downward trend, as Investment dollars flow from the safe haven of bonds to equities.  MBS is down another 31bps (after closing down 37bps yesterday).  Mortgage Rates have risen as a result.  Yields are storming up the chart, and are currently at 1.75%.

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Thursday, October 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from last week's 220k number to 210k, which is a good sign for Jobs.  Also, on the agenda is Consumer Inflation by the way of Consumer Price Index, which remained Unchanged from the previous month (MoM); and it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  When you remove the Food and Energy data, then you have the Core CPI.  It rose only 0.1% MoM, but it's YoY remained unchanged at 2.4%.  This bode well for investors because they believe it will make it easier for the Fed to continue cutting rates because inflation remains under control.  Stocks are Up again this morning, as optimistic sentiment continues with China's visit to the US today to start the Trade Negotiatoins.  There are several things by both sides whom are trying to diffuse the standoff and move in a positive direction.  There are a few Fed Members  whom will be speaking today, so Investors will look for clues to the next FOMC later this month.  MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates have risen a bit.  They're testing it's double floor of support (50- and 25 DMA).  While Yields have climbed to 1.64% and pushing Up against it's 50 DMA.

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Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a pretty slow day today, as we only have the FOMC Minutes being released later this morning (around 11am PST).  Stocks are rebounding this morning on new optimism between US and China Trade negotiations.  Reports are coming out that we may have a limited deal coming soon.  So, this is boosting stocks!  MBS is Down 9bps so far, after 2 days of testing it's ceiling and close in negative territory.  Stochastic Chart indicates possible trend reversal, which we have some room with MBS until we hit a double floor (25- and 50 DMA) of support.  Yields have climbed back up to 1.56%.

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Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which gauges the confidence with Small Businesses, dropped from 103.1 to 101.8.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation with the Wholesale Sector, dropped 0.3% MoM, which it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.4%.  The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also dropped 0.3% MoM in September.  It's YoY dropped from 2.3% to 2.0%.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as Investors are concerned over possible heightened tensions before the upcoming meeting between US and China.  Yesterday, it was announced that the US will Blacklist 28 companies for Human Rights Violations to Muslim Minorities in China.  Also, Bloomberg is reporting that the Trump Administration is proceeding with discussions on restrictions of investment flows into China, especially with Pension Plans.  MBS is Up 11bps this morning.  However, yesterday (around Mid-day) the Market turned and closed -8bps.  Mortgage Rates (today) will be comparable to what we saw on Friday.  Yields started the day higher, but has slid down to 1.51%.

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Monday, October 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report today.  The Stock Market is Down this morning on the disappointing data from last week and not feeling too optimistic ahead of this week's China/US trade negotiations, as reports are coming out that China is looking for a limited negotiation, not a full one.  So, nothing may happen this week.  MBS is Up 11bps and is currently above it's Fibonacci line.  We're approaching the same level in early September before bonds fell.  Yields are also up, which they're currently at 1.54%.

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Friday, October 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS' Non-Farm Payroll produced 136k jobs for September, which is down from 168k in August, and below it's forecast of 150k.  However, there was an upward revision of 45k jobs for the previous 2 months, which brought the 3 month average of 157k jobs.  This helped with Investors Sentiment.  Also, the Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5% (lowest since 1969).  The Average Hourly Earnings remained Unchanged in September, which it's Yearly Average dropped from 2.9% to 2.6%.  This data may assist the Fed with their thoughts at it's next FOMC on possible Rate Cuts, as this data suggests less stress on Inflationary numbers.  Stocks are in Positive Territory after a rough week.  It's been a week of Data driven sentiment, which has been disappointing, and would have been disappointing today, if not for the revision to the prior 2 months Jobs data.  MBS is Up 11bps and right up to it's next resistance level.  Meanwhile, Yields continue downward and are sitting at 1.52% this morning.

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Thursday, October 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims rose from 215k (which was revised higher from 213k) to 219k.  Tomorrow will the the BLS' September Jobs Report, which will have an Impact on the Market.  To continue with the Economic Calendar, the next 2 reports are on the Services Industry.  The Markit Services PMI remained unchanged from it's August to September data at 50.9.  However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index had a sharp drop from 56.4% to 52.6%.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion, and the ISM is a more closely watched report between the 2.  Factory Orders dropped 0.1% in August.  Stocks have continued their downward trend this morning on more poor economic data (ISM Services), which started the trend earlier this week on poor manufacturing and disappointing ADP data.  MBS is benefitting from the Stocks demise, as Investors are moving their investment dollars to flight of quality, and is currently Up 16bps.  It is sitting just below it's next overhead resistance.  Also, Yields are trending downward and currently resides at 1.55%.

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Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Employment Report only reminded investors on a contracting economy that we're now facing.  It's August numbers were revised lower by 38k, which went from 195k to 157k.  In September, it came in lower than expectations at 135k.  Most were expecting around 152k.  This bad news, coupled with yesterdays very bad data from ISM has Stocks plummeting.  The DOW is down more than 400 points this morning, and NASDAQ is down more than 100 points.  This is helping to push up MBS, as a flight to safety.  MBS is Up 16bps so far this morning.  Mortgage Rates are better this morning, however, some Lenders may be priced the same, as they may have priced their Rates around yesterday's high.  Yields continue it's decline and sit at 1.60%.

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Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 10/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Manufacturing PMI rose just a tad in September, which it moved from 51.0 to 51.1.  However, the more important index, ISM Manufacturing Index went further into contraction mode in September, as it dropped from 49.1% to 47.8%.  This news further induced more worries over looming recession talk.  Meanwhile, Construction Spending rose only 0.1% in August.  Stocks were trading in Positive Territory to start the morning, as the Bank of Japan announced they'll pull back on their purchases of Bonds in an effort to strengthen their Banking System and boost Consumer Sentiment.  However, the Markets turned Negative after the ISM data was released.  China is celebrating it's 70th Anniversary of the People's Republic this week.  MBS had started in the hole this morning, and thus skyrocketed after the ISM news, and is currently Up 23bps.  Mortgage Rates have Improved today.  Meanwhile, Yields skyrocketed earlier in trade on news of BoJ, but quickly readjusted on the ISM data (breaking below it's 25 DMA).  It currently sits at 1.62%.

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Monday, September 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the Chicago region contracted, per the Chicago PMI, in September.  It dropped from 50.4 to 47.1.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as an announcement by the Treasury eased concerns, that were raised by a report on Bloomberg, that the Trump Administration is looking to limit the amount of Chinese companies wanting to list themselves on the US Exchanges.  The Treasury denied any plans of this nature.  MBS is currently fighting it's way above a double layer of resistance of the 25- and 50 DMA, and is currently Up 5bps.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  This could change, as we appear to be facing a Breakout that could push MBS in one directin or another.  Treasuries are Up 1bps, and sit at 1.68% while it's approaching it's 25 DMA.

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Friday, September 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of data on the Economic Calendar today, so we'll start with the Durable Goods Orders for August, which rose 0.2% (higher than forecast of -0.7%); and if you remove Transportation, then it rose 0.5%.  Personal Income rose 0.4% in August, while Consumer Spending rose only 0.1%.  The PCE remain unchanged MoM in Aug., and YoY at 1.4%; however, the Core PCE rose 0.1% MoM and it's YoY rose from 1.7% (revised higher from 1.6%) to 1.8% -drawing closer to Fed's goal of 2.0% Target Rate.  Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  Consumer Sentiment rose to 93.2 after a brief dip to 92.0 in September.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as Investors watch more developing news on US/China Trade and Impeachment Inquiry.  China has indicated they will purchase more US Goods, and they set a date of Oct. 10-11 in DC for their next rounds of negotiations with the higher levels.  There is some concern that President Trump won't extend the timeframe for US businesses to deal with China's Huawei, which may lead to more tensions between the 2 nations.  The Impeachment inquiry has moved toward the backburner, as we've been through these types of obstacles and nothing seems imminent.  A few Fed Speakers will be out speaking today.  MBS is currently Up 5bps and moving sideways, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have climbed Up slightly to 1.70%.

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Thursday, September 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from last week's report to 213k.  However, last week's report was revised higher by 2k (from 208k to 210k).  Last week's report is important because it will be used as part of the BLS' Jobs report due October 4th.  This low number should help to show a strong Jobs report for September.  Also, the GDP provided it's final revision for Q2, which remained the same at 2.0%.  Pending Home Sales jumped up 1.6% in August, which we saw an uptick in purchases out west.  The lower interest rates are helping home buyers, as it improves their Affordability.  Stocks are Down this morning, as the Impeachment Talk takes center stage.  Yesterday, it was placed on the back burner, as investors became more optimistic over a possible US/China Trade Deal to be completed soon.  Like yesterday, there will be several Fed Members speaking throughout the day.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, but Mortgage Rates will be the same as we closed yesterday.  Yesterday, we closed down 33bps.  Lenders whom didn't re-price for the worst, then will price it in today.  Yields are down a bit, as they currently sit slightly under 1.69%.

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Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales jumped up from 666k in July to 713k in August.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as Congress has announced an Inquiry into an Impeachment process.  This gave rise to Yields, thus affecting Bonds, which we'll see in a little bit.  Aso, Investors are still uncertain over the US and China Trade Negotiations, even though China has placed more orders for Soy and Pork with the US.  Later today, several Fed Members will be speaking, which could potentially lead to some volatility in the Markets.  MBS is currently down 11bps, but it's not enough movement to change Mortgage Rates, as they remain Unchanged.  It's currently sitting just atop it's floor at the 50 DMA.  Yields have risen a bit to 1.67% on the Impeachment Inquiry news, which is what's adding pressure to the MBS this morning.

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Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller Home Price Index remained Unchanged at 3.2% in July, as June's data was revised a little higher.  Consumer Confidence dropped a bit in September, from 134.2 to 125.1, due to the tensions that erupted between the US and China Trade Negotiations.  Stocks are Up this morning, as reports indicate that the talks between US and China continue to progress.  It was reported that the Top UK Court ruled that PM Johnson violated law last month on his suspension of Parliament as a tactic for Brexit.  The British Pound rose against the US dollar.  Also, reports out of Saudi Arabia that progress is being made on their recovery from the drone strikes and back to oil production.  MBS is Up 11bps, however, yesterday it closed -5bps, even though it was in Positive Territory for most of day.  We're around same levels as yesterday morning (between 25- and 50-DMA), so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields had similar reaction yesterday and are back to 1.67%.  Both are heading toward a possible Breakout, which that Trend appears to favor Bonds.  The concern lies iwth Friday's report of the PCE, which could have an adverse effect on MBS, if it comes in a bit hot.

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Monday, September 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we have data from Markit PMI flash for the month of September.  The manufaturing data rose to 51.0; while the services data rose to 50.9.  However, the Eurozone reported some pretty ugly numbers in manufacturing, which is partly why Stocks are currently in the Red this morning.  The Chinese are reporting that the cancellation of the farm visits in Montana have no bearing on the negotiations and were downplaying it's meaning.  This is helping to ease the Markets some, as it turned a bit ugly on Friday after the announcement.  MBS is currently Up 14bps, so Mortgage rates are better today.  They broke above it's 50 DMA on Friday and continue to rise, and will face resistance at the 25 DMA.  The Yields are down to 1.67%, and approaching it's floor at the 25 DMA.  It broke below it's double floor (50 DMA and Fibonacci) on Friday and continuing it's downward trend.  There is caution this week, as the PCE report is due Friday.  This is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  The CPI last reported at a 11 year high.  If PCE comes in a bit hot on Friday, then MBS may lose much of it's gains, as inflation is the worst enemy to Bonds/MBS.  Be cautious this week!

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Friday, September 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We don't have any data to report from the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are Up again today and approaching new highs again.  Tensions between US and China appear to be easing, as they're currently meeting to prepare for the bigger meeting in October.  A few members of the Fed spoke today, after the FOMC which the Dissenters relayed their reasons for the dissension.  Today, it's Quadruple Witching Day on Wall Street, so we may see some re-balancing in stocks, which may or may not help Bonds.  MBS is currently Up 11bps, but it's not quite enough to improve Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged again today.  Yields are trying to remain above it's double floor of support, which it's just below it, at 1.77%.

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Thursday, September 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims beat forecasts and rose only 2k, to 208k.  The Philly Fed dropped from 16.8 to 12.0 in Sept., but still beat it's projection at 10.0.  This measures the manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.  Existing Home Sales rose in August from 5.42 million annualized units to 5.49 million, which forecasts were calling for a drop to 5.39 million.  Leading Indicators were flat in August.  Stocks are Up this morning after the FOMC announcment, and they liked today's data.  MBS is Up 6bps, but it's not enough to change Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting just above a double layer of support at the 2.79%.

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Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Both Housing Starts and Permits had a very nice spike in August, which coincides with yesterday's NAHB Home Builder Index.  Housing Starts jumped Up from 1.215 million annualized units to 1.364 million.  Permits leaped from 1.317 million annualized units to 1.419 million.  Around 11am PST, the Fed will release their statement, which we expect a 0.25% Rate Cut.  Stocks are Down ahead of the Fed's Decision.  Also, the Fed had to intervene with the Markets yesterday because there seems to have been a bit of a Liquidity issue.  MBS improved as the day went on yesterday, and is Up 17bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Better so far.  If there is any concern over Inflation, then this could spook the Markets, and we'll see a pullback in the the Bond Market (negatively affecting Mortage Rates).  Yields have slid down to 1.75% now.

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Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production rose 0.6% in August; and Capacity Utilization rose from 77.5% to 77.9%.  Last, but not least, the Home Builder's Index rose from 66 to 68 in September.  This index measures the confidence level of Home Builders.  The Sentiment from the Attacks on Saudi Oil Processing Plants are lingering into today's trading.  Stocks started in the Red, but have eased up a bit, and now are Mixed.  We saw the biggest spike since September 2008 in Oil prices yesterday, so Investors are watching this carefully.  This could lead into talk of Inflation, which is the enemy of MBS/Bonds, as it erodes it's value over time.  The FOMC begin their 2 day meeting today, which they're expected a 0.25% Rate Cut.  If there's any mention of concern over inflation, then we could see an adverse effect with MBS and Mortgage Rates.  MBS are currently Up 2bps.  So, no change in Mortgage Rates from yesterday's pricing today.  Yields are slid a bit to 1.83%.  The Good News is the Stochastic Chart seems to reflect a reversal in the trend of both MBS and Yields, so we may reclaim some of the lost pricing and improvement with Mortgage Rates in the near term.

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Monday, September 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Empire State Index, which measures Manufacturing data in the NY region, dropped from 4.8 in August to 2.0 in September.  Manufacturing has been suffering a bit of late, and it's something that we're watching, as more and more talk about recession becomes more apparent.  The drone attack on Saudi Oil Processing Center has dropped the Stock Market into Negative Territory, as the money has flown to safety by investing into Bonds/MBS, which MBS is Up 25bps.  Yields have come down to 1.85%.

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Friday, September 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales jumped Up 0.4% in August; however, if you remove Autos from that data, then it was completely flat.  Consumer Sentiment Index shows that Consumers are feeling better in September, as it rises from 89.8 to 92.0.  Also, Business Inventories rose 0.4% in July.  Stocks are modestly trading in Positive Territory, as it's trading at it's highs.  The sentiment is calm after "good will" gestures between US and China prior to their upcoming October meeting; and an accomodating attitude amongst the Central Banks to stimulate the economy.  Meanwhile, money is flowing out of MBS/Bonds and into Stocks/Equities; so, Mortgage Rates continue to rise this week, as MBS is down 36bps this morning.  Yields are climbing, and now sits around 1.86%.  Both have broken past their next levels of support/resistance.

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Thursday, September 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims came in strong last week, which only 204k people applied for first time benefits.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.1% in August, which it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  However, it's Core CPI rose 0.3% in August, and it's YoY rose from 2.2% to 2.4%.  Stocks are in Positive Territory on news that the US will delay Tariffs on $250 Billion Chinese goods from October 1st to October 15th as a gesture of good will.  Also, the ECB announced further rate cuts, which they reduced their depository rates by 10bps, so they went from -0.4% to -0.5%.  They also announced that they will start buying Government Bonds in November in blocks of $20 Billion Euros until they deem necessary.  Meanwhile, MBS started the morning much higher, but has since fizzled and is currently Up only 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain the same.  Yields faced the same type of volatility, as they currently sit at 1.75%.  Both lines held yesterday and are starting to be challenged again this morning.

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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Producer Price Index, which gauges inflation with Wholesalers, rose  0.1% in August, and it's YoY rose from 1.7% to 1.8%.  When you strip out Food and Energy, then you have the PPI, which rose 0.3% in August, and it's YoY rose from 2.1% to 2.3%.  Wholesale Inventories jumped Up 0.2% in July.  Stocks are Up this morning, as it's a relatively quiet news day; however, many Investors are reviewing their trading patterns and reviewing stocks that have been unpopular and re-evaluating the popular ones.  MBS is Up 6bps, but it's Unchanged from it's pricing from yesterday's close, which we had a few price changes for the worst throughout the day, as the MBS/Bonds keep sliding down.  Meanwhile, Yields keep rising and is currently sitting at 1.73%.

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Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index dropped a little bit in August, going from 104.7 to 103.1.  This is the lowest level since March, which is when things between US and China got a little bit chippy.  It got a little chippy last month too, which may be the reason for this number.  Job Openings remained the same in July at 7.2 million.  Stocks are Down this morning, as Investors look to ECB's upcoming meeting on Thursday.  There was some pushback from some ECB Officials regarding the (maybe) too high expectations of possible rate cuts and re-starting the Bond Buying Program again.  MBS is down 9bps now.  It dropped further later in the day and closed -30bps, so Lenders will have Higher Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields are still climbing, and currently at 1.67%.

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Monday, September 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Quiet day on the Economic Calendar, and for the most part on the News day too.  Investors will be looking ahead to the ECB announcment later this week, and the FOMC next week, as the Fed Officials go into a Quiet Period before the FOMC.  It is expected that the ECB will cut rates again, further into Negative Territory, and possibly re-starting the Bond Purchase Program.  The Fed is expected to cut a .25% rate next week.  We have inflation news this week, via the CPI, so it could have an impact on how the Markets responds to any Fed decision.  Currently, Stocks are in Positive Territory.  Meanwhile, MBS is Down 16bps and trying to stay above it's next floor of support, which happens to be the 25 DMA.  Yields have skyrocketed further above a double layer ceiling and sitting around 1.62%.  We'll see if this continues, or if it gets pulled back under.

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Friday, September 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the Big Day for the Jobs Data!  The Non-Farm Payroll, report given by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), rose only 130k new jobs in August.  The Unemployment Rate remained the same, at 3.7%.  The Average Hourly Earnings exceeded forecasts and rose 0.4% in August.  All in All the Jobs report was ok, even though the headline number disappointed.  We're seeing a trend in the Private Sector of New Jobs created are shrinking.  However, we did just saw an uptick in Labor Participation, which was the highest level in about 6 years; and this month's number of new labor coming into the labor force almost matched the amount of new jobs created, which is the reason the Unemployment Rate remained the same.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning.  Fed Chief Powell is speaking in Switzerland later today, which will be his last appearance until the FOMC.  Investors will listen intently for any clues to September's meeting and Rate Cut talk.  MBS is Up about 6bps.  The pricing is the same as yesterday's close, but it may show some improvement for some Lenders whom may not have improved their pricing after the pullback in MBS from their earlier lows.  Yields spiked all the way up to 1.56% and is currently sitting at the same level.

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Thursday, September 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Report came in strong with 195k new Jobs in the Private Sector.  Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 217k. Q2 Productivity dropped from 3.1% in Q1 to 2.3% in Q2.  Also, Unit Labor Costs rose 2.6% in Q2.  Markit Services PMI dropped from 50.9 in July to 50.7 in August; however, the more closely watched, ISM Non-Manfacturing Index, rose from 53.7% to 56.4%.  Lastly, Factory Orders increased by 1.4% in July.  Stocks are way up this morning on the bullish data and announcement that the US and China will sit down again on October 4th in DC to work on the Trade Negotiations.  Even though, it's nothing new, Investors REALLY like the Optimism!  MBS is way down this morning, -41bps, which has led to worse pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have really spiked, up to 1.59%.  If you're floating in a transaction, then you may want to lock in, as we may see this pattern for a little bit.  Long-term, I see rates coming down, but we will have our ebbs and flows in both directions (like a yo-yo).

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Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we just have the Fed's Beige Book on the Economic Calendar, which will be released around 11am PST.  This will provide a Micro Economic view around the US.  Stocks are Up this morning on positive Geo-Political news.  China is easing on some of the restrictions on Hong Kong in hopes to diffuse the tensions with the Protesters.  Also, the Peoples Bank of China announced steps for more stimulus.  The UK Parliament blocked PM Boris Johnson's proposal to leave the EU without any trade deal.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so coupled with yesterday's late gains, then Lenders will price better with Mortgage Rates.  Yields are fighting to get back above the Fibonacci level and is currently sitting just below it at 1.47%.

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Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 9/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ISM Manufacturing contracted in August to it's lowest level (49.1%) in approximately 3 years.  Construction Spending slighly rebounded in July by rising 0.1%.  Investors are a bit uneasy with the Manufacturing data today, along with the Tariffs that were implemented on Sunday (by the US and China, alike).  Stocks are down quite a bit on this uneasy feeling.  MBS seem to be gaining some more steam and may have found it's catalyst after moving sideways for the past month by breaking above it's Ceiling of Resistance is currently Up 9bps.  Earlier, it did test the former Ceiling, which will become it's Floor of Support on the Candles Chart.  I'd say that Mortgage Rates are currently the same as Fridays, but this may change if the Candles continue to rise (better pricing).  Yields have dropped below it's Floor of Support and are approaching it's lowest level ever.  It's currently sitting at 1.45%.

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Friday, August 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Personal Income rose 0.1% in July, while Consumer Spending rose 0.6%.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.2% in July; whereas, it's YoY essentially remained the same, as the June's number was revised from 1.4% to 1.3%, then rose to 1.4% YoY in July (hope you were able to follow that;).  When you remove the food and energy, then you have the Core Inflation (this is the Fed's favorite measure for inflation).  It also rose 0.2% in July; whereas, it's YoY remained unchanged at 1.6%.  The Fed's target rate for inflation is 2.0%, so we're currently below it's target rate, which may induce them for more rate cuts.  Chicago PMI, which is an index that measures the manufacturing within the Chicago region, rose from 44.4 to 50.4.  Anything under 50 is considered contraction and above it, is expansion.  Consumer Sentiment took a bit of a noosedive in August.  It's initial August reading was 92.1, but it dropped further and finalized at 89.9.  This is a far drop from July's final at 98.4.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as the storms between the US and China seem to have subsided from the earlier storm that brewed earlier in the month.  MBS are currently Up 6bps and up against the Ceiling of Resistance; meanwhile, the 25 DMA is it's new Floor of Support and shrinking it's current level of movement between floor and support.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's close.  The Yields are slightly up to 1.51%.

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Thursday, August 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Weekly Jobless Claims rose a little bit from 211k people applying for Unemployment the previous week to 215k last week.  Q2 GDP had it's 2nd revision today, which went from 2.1% annualized to 2.0%.  It's forecasts called for 1.9%,  Also, Pending Home Sales dropped 2.5% from June to July.  Stocks are in a Good Mood today, as they like comments out of China that they stated they will no immediately retaliate to the US' counter with additional tariffs last Friday, and they intend to meet face-to-face next month to continue their trade negotiations.  MBS are currently down 11bps.  They're sitting where we started yesterday, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Something to watch is the rise of the 25 DMA, which may push it higher; but, there's always a chance for it to slip below it (at least temporarily).  So be cautious, if your floating your interest rate, as it may affect short term positions.  Yields have risen to 1.51%, as money flows from Treasuries to Equities today.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report from the Economic Calendar today.  The Market's Sentiment seems to be shifted a bit more sour today, as it begain late yesterday.  Stocks closed in Negative Territory yesterday (after starting the day in Positive Territory).  Today, it is a bit mixed, as Investors continue to worry about the ever deepening Yield Curve Inversion, the long, drawn out trade negotiations between US and China, and a realistic "Hard" Brexit coming this fall, which they believe will deeply impact both European and UK's economy negatively.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are currently sitting below it's Floor of Support at 1.47%.

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Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Case Shiller Home Price Index, which gauges home prices in the 20 largest US Cities, dropped from 2.4% YoY in May to 2.1% YoY in June.  Consumer Confidence Index had a slight drop from 135.8 in July to 135.1 in August.  Headline news are more of the same, or continuation of yesterday's sentiment.  Nothing new has yet developed.  Stocks are in Positive Territory.  MBS is currently Up 17bps.  But MBS had a late day change to the worse and closed Down 16bps, but most lenders didn't price in any price changes, so today's pricing is essentially the same as yesterday's (Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged).  Yields are slipping a little after yesterday's push upwards, and are currently sitting slightly below 1.51%.

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Monday, August 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders rose 2.1% in July, up from 1.8% in June.  However, when you exclude the Autos, then it dropped 0.4% in July.  Stocks are Up this morning on news that President Trump stated that China contacted him twice over the weekend to return back to negotiations.  This has flipped the Investors sentiment from Friday's tit-for-tat tariff talk between US and China.  A Business Survey in Germany reported that Business Confidence is at it's lowest point since 2009, and is greatly concerned that it's quickly approaching recessionary levels.  MBS is Up 8bps, which isn't enough for any price improvement since Friday's close, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields started the morning sitting on it's Floor of Support (about the 1.48% level) and is now up to 1.51%.

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Friday, August 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We only have 1 economic piece to report, which is New Home Sales for the Month of July.  In June, we had 728k annualized units sold; however, in July, it dropped to 635k.  Very disappointing!  That's nearly a 100k drop in 1 month.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory so far this morning, but off from earlier lows.  The morning started off with China announcing new Tariffs of 5% and 10% of $75 Billion US Imports starting on Sept. 1st and December 15th in retailiation to the US announcement a few months ago.  Fed Chair Powell spoke today in Jackson Hole, WY, which he indicated that there will be another Rate Cut in Sept. 17-18 meeting, as he also indicated a weakening economy.  MBS is Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates are better today and are priced where we were around Tuesday's pricing.  Yields had closed above it's Ceiling of Resistance yesterday, but it falling today (below it) and is currently sitting around 1.56%.

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Thursday, August 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims was reduced by 12k from last week's report to 209k.  This week's report is important because it is being used by the BLS for their Jobs Data to be reported the first Friday of Sept, which this report is called the "Sample Week".  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash dropped into Contraction Territory in August, as it dropped from 50.4 to 49.9.  Also, the Markit Services PMI flash dropped from 53.0 to 50.9, which will be teetering on possible Contraction.  On the good news, the Leading Economic Indicators improved from -0.1% in June to +0.5% in July.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory this morning (DOW being lone index in Positive Territory), as all eyes will be toward the Jackson Hole Conference.  This Conference kicks off today, as many Fed Governors will be speaking.  Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell will speak, so he will have everybody's attention.  The 10- and 2- year Treasury Inverted again (for 2nd time) yesterday, which spooked the Markets again.  This Inversion is one of the better signals/indicators of looming recession.  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates again keep moving in side-ways patterns and remain Unchanged.  Yields are pushing it's Ceiling of Resistance, which seems to be holding, but it currently sits at 1.59%.  Be cautious ahead of tomorrow's Jackson Hole Conference, as Fed Chair Powell's comments can really sway the Markets to one direction or the other.  It could define the tone until the next meeting.

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales jumped up from 5.29 million annualized units in June to 5.42 million in July.  The FOMC Minutes will be released at 11am PST.  Investors will be searching for clues behind the Fed's thoughts on past Rate Cut and insight into future Rate Cuts.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as the Earnings Reports wind down.  Target and Lowes, coupled with Home Depot (yesterday), show that Retail Sales are still going strong.  The Italian Prime Minister Conte resigned, so volatility in Yields may calm a bit.  MBS is currently Down 3bps, which is not enough to alter Mortgage Rates Pricing, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently 1.57%, and still trying to push ahead of it's Ceiling of Resistance, which has been proving to be strong.

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Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report today (again), which was mentioned yesterday that this will be relatively light in terms of data being reported.  The Markets are taking their cue from the remaining Earnings Reports, as big bellweather companies, like HomeDepot, are reporting today.  Stocks are Mixed this morning, as a result.  Huawei was granted another 90 day reprieve from the US Commerce Dept, so US businesses can still do business with them without requesting permission to do so.  President Trump continues his criticism of the Fed with their rate policy and suggested they should cut about 1% more.  There are a few Fed speakers out today speaking, which can also pique the Investors ears.  Jackson Hole is just around the corner, as a few Central Bankers will gather there this Thursday and Friday.  MBS is Up 16bps this morning, as Mortgage Rates look to improve after yesterday's drop (closed down 22bps).  Yields are sliding a bit and are down to 1.56%, trying to stay above the 2nd level of Support.

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Monday, August 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's No Economic Data to report today, and it will be a light week this week, as well.  The Market is taking it's cue today on Geo-Political News, as President Trump and his Staff downplay talks of recession.  They stated that they expect the economy to continue to be strong, and raised the optimism of a trade agreement with China, possible Tax Cuts, Rate Cuts, as other large nations are announcing stimulus packages.  Stocks are Up on this optimism.  MBS is currently down 14bps, so Mortgage Rates are down a little bit today.  Yields are fighting their way back above it's 2 levels of resistance, and currently sitting at 1.60%.

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Friday, August 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.241 million in June to 1.191 million in July.  Even though this headline number shows a drop, the good news is if you dig deeper, then you'll understand that the drop was due to drop with Multi-Family.  There was actually an increase in Single Family, which is up approximately 2% YoY.  Building Permits, our Future Housing Starts, rose from 1.232 million in June to 1.336 million in July.  Consumer Sentiment dropped from 98.4 in July to 92.1 August.  Stocks are Up today, as the data from the Economic Calendar is spurring the positive movement today, as this week's volatility from the China aftermath and Inverted Yields are placed on the back-burner for now.  MBS is down 25bps from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates have worsened, but they're still Up from Wednesday's pricing.  Yields inched Up to 1.57% this morning.

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Thursday, August 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have a lot of data on the Economic Calendar being released.  Initial Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 220k this week.  Retail Sales rose 0.7% in July; and when you exclude Autos, then it rose 1.0%.  Productivity rose 2.3% for Q2.  Unit Labor Costs rose 2.4% for Q2.  Empire State Index rose from 4.3 in July to 4.8 in August.  Philly Fed Index dropped from 21.8 to 16.8.  Industrial Production dropped 0.2% in July.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.8% to 77.5% in July.  Business Inventories remained Unchanged in June.  NAHB Home Builders Index rose from 65 to 66 in August.  For more clarification on this data, then please check out the video.  Stocks started the day off very volatile due to comments by China on Tariffs and Negotiations.  We saw swings to the low when they commented about Tariffs being placed in September to change of tone later in the day when they stated they'd like to accomplish a mutual beneficial agreement between the 2 nations.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as Walmart reported bullish earnings, along with strong Retail Sales.  MBS is Up 31bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday, and are about to pressure it's overhead ceiling of resistance.  Yields have continued to slide, which are currently sitting below it's 2nd floor of support.  It's currently at 1.534%  Next floor of support is 1.325%, which is the Yields All-Time Low.

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Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no economic data to report today.  Stocks are being driven downward today (DOW down over 600 so far) on worries of the final Yield Curve Inversion.  The 2 year Yield finally inverted with the 10 year Yield.  This is important because it's been a very good indicator or signal that either we're in a recession or will be heading into a recession.  Again, this is not what causes a recession, but just an indicator or signal (so, not to be mistaken of what puts us into a recession).  This, coupled with more negative data from around the world, is spooking the Markets.  As a result, the MBS is Up 31bps, so we have improvement with our Mortgage Rate pricing; however, the Market did deteriorate a bit more yesterday afternoon, and there was a re-price for worse pricing.  Yields are testing it's first floor of support, and sits at 1.586% currently.

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Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidence for Small Businesses, rose from 103.3 in June to 104.7 in July.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in July, and 1.6% to 1.8% YoY.  However, if you remove the food and energy components (which are volatile), then you have the Core CPI.  The Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in July and 2.1% to 2.2% YoY.  Stocks have reversed course and trading in Positive Territory (DOW is up over 400, thus far) on news that the US will either scrap altogether or just delay certain components of the $300 Billion Chinese Goods due to go into effect Sept. 1.  Also, the Trade Reps plan to be meeting again within the next 2 weeks.  Investors are closely watching the happenings in Hong Kong, as China is becoming more aggressive with their crackdown on Protestors.  MBS is currently down 9bps, however, that's not enough movement to change Mortgage Rates.  Yields have climbed to 1.68%.  Investors are watching the last possible inversion between the 2yr and 10yr, as they are now about 3bps from being inverted.

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Monday, August 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are mostly following the news on US/China trade negotiations and Hong Kong.  The Yuan is getting weaker against the US Dollar, which the US has accused China of being a currency manipulator.  Also, tensions in Hong Kong continue to rise, as Police step up their tactics in a more aggressive manner, which is leading to bloodshed; as a result, the Hong Kong airport cancelled all flights because thousands of protestors are occupying the terminals.  MBS is currently Up 9bps and floating in mid-range of it's floor and ceiling.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's Close.  Yields have fallen to 1.66% with it's next floor of support at 1.595%, which is the current Low point it reached about a week ago.

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Friday, August 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in July; however, it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  The Core PPI dropped 0.1% in July, and it's YoY dropped from 2.3% to 2.1%.  The Producer Price Index provides us insight to possible inflation to the Consumer, as it's inflationary data from the Wholesale sector.  This doesn't always get passed onto the Consumer, which is why it doesn't receive alot of attention.  Stocks are in the Red again this morning, as it faced a volatile week (big swings up and down).  Investors are still watching the US and China standoff in Trade negotiations, as China has cut purchases of Agriculture from the US; and US has been upholding US Businesses from conducting business with Huawei.  Italy wants to dissolve the parliament for new elections, so Investors are a bit jittery for any Italian Bond holdings.  MBS is currently down between 5-8bps.  Mortgage Rates had an intra-day price change yesterday afternoon and received better pricing; so, pricing this morning is better than yesterday morning's pricing, but the same as yesterday's close.  Yields are now sitting around 1.71%.

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Thursday, August 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 217k the prior week to 209k last week.  The Job Market still shows some strength.  Wholesale Inventories had 0.0% growth from May to June.  Stocks rebounded late yesterday and continued this trend this morning.  China repositioned their currency just above 7, which is a little stronger than reports yesterday at just below 7.  A poor Auction result for the 10 year Treasury Auction led to a drastic pullback to both Yields and MBS yesterday.  MBS is currently down about 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain unnchanged from yesterday's close; however, we did have a price change for the worse yesterday; so, we're a little higher than yesterday morning.  Yields have risen to 1.77%.

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Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report from the calendar today.  Global Yields are dropping like hotcakes!  Germany reports terrible economic data and reach historic lows with their Yields (-0.59%).  Central Banks from New Zealand, India and Thailand cut rates to keep up with the other Central Banks.  These moves are highlighted by China's response to Tariffs by manipulating their currency by devaluing it below 7.  Stocks are in a  freefall again today, as a result.  MBS is currently up 20bps, so Mortgage Rates continue the trend of Improvement.  Yields have dramatically dropped to 1.63% with no end in site.

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Friday, August 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we get the Big Jobs Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The Non-Farm Payroll reported 164k new jobs in July; however, there was a revision of -41k to the last 2 months of reports.  Also, the Unemployment Rate remained the same (3.7%) due to an increase in people entering the Labor Market.  Average Hourly Earnings rose by .3% in July.  Consumer Sentiment, also, remained unchanged at 98.4.  Factory Orders rebounded in June, as they rose 0.6% (vs. contracted by 1.3% in May).  Stocks are well in the Red, following yesterday's late reaction to President Trump's tweet on the 10% Tariffs on the remaining $300 Billion of Chinese Goods, which will go into effect on September 1st.  This has spooked Investors, as the both nations just returned back to the table this week; and are concerned this will heighten tensions between the nations.  On the other hand, it is reported that President Trump will announce a new deal that the  US will be exporting more beef to the EU.  MBS are near flat, +2 bps, as they had a very nice rally yesterday.  Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday morning and about the same as yesterday's close; so, depending upon the Lender, whether they added the afternoon's price improvement to yesterday or today, is what will determine if Mortgage Rates improved or not from yesterday's close.  Yields fell all the way down to 1.88%.

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Thursday, August 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215k last week -still a very low number.  Remember, we have the BLS' Jobs data tomorrow!  ISM Manufacturing Index dipped from 51.7% to 51.2% in July.  Anything above 50% is considered in expansion territory on this index.  Construction Spending continued to slump, as it dropped 1.3% in June.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as the Fed had to backtrack on earlier comments regarding outlook for future rate decisions as this is a "mid-cycle adjustment"; whereas Investors took this comment as the Fed is One and Done with the Rate Cut.  It wasn't a very good comment to make, so he back tracked and basically expressed that any rate decision going forward will be data driven.  So, Investors may take this as any good news moving forward will mean bad news, as in the Fed won't cut rates any further due to good economic data.  The stocks closed above their lows, but still very low.  MBS closed yesterday off their highs, but are rebounding today, as they're Up 22bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved.  Yields are down to 1.96% and broke below it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci levels, further helping MBS and improvement to Mortgage Rates.

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Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP reported 156k new jobs in July, which is Up from it's 112k reported in June.  The Employment Cost Index rose only 0.6%, under forecasts of 0.7%, in Q2.  Annual Compensation Growth dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%.  The Fed likes reviewing this Index for possible Wage based Inflation.  It was a favorite for former Fed Greenspan.  This tells us that Inflation is tame.  Manufacturing in the Chicago region continued to contract, as the Chicago PMI reported that it dropped from 49.7 in June to 44.4 in July.  Any number below 50 is in contraction mode.  Stocks are lightly trading and in Mixed Territory ahead of the FOMC statement at 11:15am PST.  It is expected they will cut .25% from the Fed Funds rate, the first rate cut in more than a decade.  Investors will listen intently to Fed Powell's statement for any clues.  His statement could greatly alter the Markets today, so be on guard!  The US and China delegation continue with their Trade Talks without anything new to report.  MBS is currently Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates will be better this morning.  But this could be short-lived!  Be careful!  It will be based on how the Investors feel after listening and reviewing the upcoming FOMC Announcement and Fed Chair's comments afterwards.  Yields have slid down to 2.04% and is testing it's 25 DMA.

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Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's a lot of data today on the Economic Calendar.  We'll start with the Personal Income, which rose 0.4% in June; and Consumer Spending (on the other spectrum) rose 0.3% in June.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.1% in June and remained at 1.4% YoY; however, the Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% in June and it's YoY rose from 1.5% to 1.6%.  The Fed's Target rate is 2.0%.  This is important to note, as it's expected the Fed will cut the Fed Funds Rates by 0.25% tomorrow.  The ECI report will be important for the Market, as they will want to gauge possible wage inflation. Case Shiller's HPI dropped from 3.5% YoY appreciation in April to 3.4% in May.  Consumer Confidence soared to 135.7 in June!  Pending Home Sales picked up in June at the tune of 2.8%.  Stocks are Down this morning, as they continue to cipher thru the Earnings Reports and watch the US/China continue their Trade Talks.  Expectations are low at this point, as neither side seem to want to budge on remaining differences.  The FOMC begins it's 2 day meeting today.  As mentioned, they're expected to cut it's Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% tomorrow morning (announcement will be around 11:15am PST).  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so there's not enough movement to have any price changes with Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.06%.

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Monday, July 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no scheduled data to be released today from the Economic Calendar; however, this week, we have a wide range of important data to be released (namely Inflation, housing and Jobs).  On top othat data, we have the FOMC, which begins tomorrow and is expected to cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% on Wednesday.  The US and China representatives are expected to meet for the first time tomorrow in China, as the 2 nations try to complete the trade negotiations.  It's not expected to have much progress done from just this meeting, but it provides some optimism for Investors that they're back to the table and talking.  There's still more Corporate Earnings Reports being released this week.  Currently, the Stock Market is trading in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is the lone index in Positive Territory.  This week could be very volatile, so expect a possible rollercoaster effect.  MBS started the morning a little higher, but has since dropped 3bps below Friday's close, and sitting at it's Floor of Support.  Yields are a little lower too, as they reside at 2.06% now.

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Friday, July 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Q2 GDP rose 2.1%, which was higher than forecasts of 1.9%.  The Final Q1 GDP was 3.1%.  There were some good things out of this GDP, like the increase in Consumer Spending; however, the Businesses pulled back on their spending.  This report, along with (overall) positive Earnings Reports is pushing Stocks higher today.  MBS is Up 2bps, but has been testing it's double floor of support today.  There is no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.07%.  Next week can be a catalyst for MBS.  We have the FOMC, PCE and Jobs data.  Even though the Fed cuts rates next week, Mortgage Rates could have an adverse effect if PCE comes in hotter than forecast.  The arch enemy to bonds is inflation, as it erodes the bonds value.  So be cautious going into next week!

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Thursday, July 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims dropped 10k this week to 206k people applying for Unemployment; other words, less people applying for Benefits, so it's an improvement.  Also, Durable Goods Orders jumped up 2.0% in June, after it dropped 2.3% in May.  Even after you remove Transportation, it improved 1.2%.  Stocks are trading in the Red today, as today is one of the busiest days for Corporate Earnings being released.  Also, the ECB announced they are planning for more measures of stimulation for their next meeting in September.  This will probably include lowering their interest rates to negative territory again and bond buying purchase program (in other words, more of the same -but without any results).  MBS tested it's floor of support earlier on, but is currently down 8bps.  It's not enough to have any change or effect on pricing for Mortgage Rates, which have been relatively the same range this whole week.  Yields spiked to 2.08%.

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Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have both Manufacturing and Services Sectors being represented by Markit PMI flash Indexes being reported today.  It's Manufacturing dropped from 50.6 in June to 50.0 in July; whereas, it's Services increased from 51.5 to 52.2.  New Home Sales increased from 604k annualize units in May to 646k in June.  However, it is important to note that the number in May was revised lower, so it's 7% increase in June, is more like 3.2% (without the revision).  Still a good number, but need to point out the reason behind these spikes.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as Coporate Earnings are influencing the Markets, most notably Catepillar and Boeing's very disappointing results (DOW is down over 100 so far this morning).  Also, Tech Stocks are being tested, as the DOJ is opening an Anti Trust Probe into the large High Tech Businesses Practices that are hurting smaller businesses.  It was announced that Lighthizer and Mnuchin will be going to China for their first face-to-face meetings since G20 Meetings, so there's some optimism growing.  MBS is Up 9bps, but it's not enough to change pricing  for Mortgage Rates.  We're about the same levels as Monday's.  Yields have come down from their last minute surge at yesterday's closing (2.07%) to 2.05% this morning.

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Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.1% in May, and is Up 5.0% YoY.  The FHFA HPI is an index that measures home prices for home with Conforming loans.  May's numbers doesn't seem like a lot, but it was off a very good April that saw it rise 0.4%.  Existing Home Sales shrank from 5.36 million annualized units to 5.27 million.  This is a 1.7% drop; however, this number is a bit deceiving because May was a very strong Month (it was up around 3%) and was revised higher.  So, if there wasn't a revision, then the drop would have been 1.3%.  Not a lot of difference, but can't forget that we're coming off a very strong May.  The Media will harp on this negative, but you will know and understand the truth!  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory today, as they're mostly influenced with some strong Earnings Reports.  Also, Investors are looking ahead, not only to the FOMC at the end of this month, but to Thursday when the ECB meets.  There are rumblings that the ECB may cut rates at this meeting after the Fed made it clear they will at their upcoming meeting.  It is expected to be very dovish.  Also, Great Britain will have a new leader, Boris Johnson, whom is a hard-line Brexit.  It will be interesting how they proceed with their leave from the EU.  MBS is Up 3bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today, as we've been in a sideways pattern the last few trading days.  Yields are at 2.04% range.

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Monday, July 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data from the calendar to report today.  We will see a lot of Housing Data later this week, however.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory; however, the DOW has since turned Negative, so Stocks are Mixed.  There are further Corporate Earnings Reports being released all week.  China has reported that representatives from the US will be visiting Beijing for face-to-face meetings, perhaps this week.  Also, Oil spiked a bit after Iran captured a British flagged Tanker on Friday.  MBS are Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved this morning.  Yields are still residing between it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci level at 2.03%.

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Friday, July 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment slightly improved from June to July, as it went from 98.2 to 98.4, even though forecasts were calling for higher number, 99.0.  Stocks are in Positive Territory.  Microsoft is a Big Winner, as they blew out their numbers!  More Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  The Big news came from comments by NY Fed President Williams, whom spoke yesterday on the importance of cutting rates sooner than later.  As a result, both the Stock and Bond Market rallied.  Today, however, they're walking backwards and state the context of his comments yesterday were in reference to academic study and no bearing of the upcoming FOMC.  As a result, he's receiving a lot of criticism.  MBS is Down (currently 5bps, even though it started further down at -11bps), as a result of today's comments by a rep of Fed Williams.  However, they're now above the Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates received a Price Improvement yesterday, however, today, we're priced at the same levels as yesterday's close.  Yields are sitting at 2.04% and just above it's Fibonacci level and below it's 25 DMA.

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Thursday, July 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: This week's Initial Jobless Claims rose from last week's revised number (from 209k) of 208k to this week's of 216k.  This week's number is important, as it will be used by the BLS with their Jobs numbers for July.  This will be released Aug. 2nd.  Manufacturing rebounded, "Big Time", in the Philadelphia region, as the Philly Fed jumped Up from being near contraction in June, at 0.3 to  21.8 in July, which is the highest number for this year.  Also, Leading Indicators show the economy beginning to slow down to -0.3% in June.  These numbers are usually good outlook for the economy in about 6 months.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning.  More Earnings Reports are being released.  Some of the Big Names mentioned were United Health and Netflix.  Netflix lost 126k subscriptions in the US last month.  Steven Mnuchin tries to calm Investors perception on the US' Trade Talk with China, that it's still ongoing.  MBS had a good rally yesterday and closed right at the Fibonacci level, which is our Ceiling of Resistance.  We've been testing it since early June.  We're sitting between it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates remained Unchanged after yesterday's improvement, as they're just down about 2bps.  Yields fell down to it's 25 DMA and are sitting on this Floor of Support, which is at 2.07%.

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Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.265 million annualized units in May to 1.253 million in June.  Building Permits dropped from 1.299 million annualized units in May to 1.220 million in June.  The Fed Beige Book, which reports the Fed's economic view of the various regions around the US, will be released at 11am PST.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning, as more Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  B of A seems to be getting the brunt of it today even though it appeared that it had a lot of positive aspects to it's report.  Also, President Trump tweeted yesterday that the US and China are still a long ways off from reaching an agreement, and the Tariffs are still on the table.  Investors are concerned and the sentiment is still reeling in today's Market.  As I mentioned in the video, I created this video early in the day, which the Market is just starting, so a lot can change since I created this.  Currently MBS is Up 11bps, which appears to be trending upward this morning, and sitting between the 25 DMA and the Fibonacci level.  This can lead to better pricing on Mortgage Rates this morning, as Lenders on the West Coast have not yet released their pricing.  Yields have slid down to 2.09%.

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