Friday, August 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.241 million in June to 1.191 million in July.  Even though this headline number shows a drop, the good news is if you dig deeper, then you'll understand that the drop was due to drop with Multi-Family.  There was actually an increase in Single Family, which is up approximately 2% YoY.  Building Permits, our Future Housing Starts, rose from 1.232 million in June to 1.336 million in July.  Consumer Sentiment dropped from 98.4 in July to 92.1 August.  Stocks are Up today, as the data from the Economic Calendar is spurring the positive movement today, as this week's volatility from the China aftermath and Inverted Yields are placed on the back-burner for now.  MBS is down 25bps from yesterday's close, so Mortgage Rates have worsened, but they're still Up from Wednesday's pricing.  Yields inched Up to 1.57% this morning.

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Thursday, August 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We have a lot of data on the Economic Calendar being released.  Initial Jobless Claims rose a little bit to 220k this week.  Retail Sales rose 0.7% in July; and when you exclude Autos, then it rose 1.0%.  Productivity rose 2.3% for Q2.  Unit Labor Costs rose 2.4% for Q2.  Empire State Index rose from 4.3 in July to 4.8 in August.  Philly Fed Index dropped from 21.8 to 16.8.  Industrial Production dropped 0.2% in July.  Capacity Utilization dropped from 77.8% to 77.5% in July.  Business Inventories remained Unchanged in June.  NAHB Home Builders Index rose from 65 to 66 in August.  For more clarification on this data, then please check out the video.  Stocks started the day off very volatile due to comments by China on Tariffs and Negotiations.  We saw swings to the low when they commented about Tariffs being placed in September to change of tone later in the day when they stated they'd like to accomplish a mutual beneficial agreement between the 2 nations.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as Walmart reported bullish earnings, along with strong Retail Sales.  MBS is Up 31bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved from yesterday, and are about to pressure it's overhead ceiling of resistance.  Yields have continued to slide, which are currently sitting below it's 2nd floor of support.  It's currently at 1.534%  Next floor of support is 1.325%, which is the Yields All-Time Low.

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Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no economic data to report today.  Stocks are being driven downward today (DOW down over 600 so far) on worries of the final Yield Curve Inversion.  The 2 year Yield finally inverted with the 10 year Yield.  This is important because it's been a very good indicator or signal that either we're in a recession or will be heading into a recession.  Again, this is not what causes a recession, but just an indicator or signal (so, not to be mistaken of what puts us into a recession).  This, coupled with more negative data from around the world, is spooking the Markets.  As a result, the MBS is Up 31bps, so we have improvement with our Mortgage Rate pricing; however, the Market did deteriorate a bit more yesterday afternoon, and there was a re-price for worse pricing.  Yields are testing it's first floor of support, and sits at 1.586% currently.

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Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidence for Small Businesses, rose from 103.3 in June to 104.7 in July.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in July, and 1.6% to 1.8% YoY.  However, if you remove the food and energy components (which are volatile), then you have the Core CPI.  The Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in July and 2.1% to 2.2% YoY.  Stocks have reversed course and trading in Positive Territory (DOW is up over 400, thus far) on news that the US will either scrap altogether or just delay certain components of the $300 Billion Chinese Goods due to go into effect Sept. 1.  Also, the Trade Reps plan to be meeting again within the next 2 weeks.  Investors are closely watching the happenings in Hong Kong, as China is becoming more aggressive with their crackdown on Protestors.  MBS is currently down 9bps, however, that's not enough movement to change Mortgage Rates.  Yields have climbed to 1.68%.  Investors are watching the last possible inversion between the 2yr and 10yr, as they are now about 3bps from being inverted.

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Monday, August 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are mostly following the news on US/China trade negotiations and Hong Kong.  The Yuan is getting weaker against the US Dollar, which the US has accused China of being a currency manipulator.  Also, tensions in Hong Kong continue to rise, as Police step up their tactics in a more aggressive manner, which is leading to bloodshed; as a result, the Hong Kong airport cancelled all flights because thousands of protestors are occupying the terminals.  MBS is currently Up 9bps and floating in mid-range of it's floor and ceiling.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's Close.  Yields have fallen to 1.66% with it's next floor of support at 1.595%, which is the current Low point it reached about a week ago.

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Friday, August 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in July; however, it's YoY remained at 1.7%.  The Core PPI dropped 0.1% in July, and it's YoY dropped from 2.3% to 2.1%.  The Producer Price Index provides us insight to possible inflation to the Consumer, as it's inflationary data from the Wholesale sector.  This doesn't always get passed onto the Consumer, which is why it doesn't receive alot of attention.  Stocks are in the Red again this morning, as it faced a volatile week (big swings up and down).  Investors are still watching the US and China standoff in Trade negotiations, as China has cut purchases of Agriculture from the US; and US has been upholding US Businesses from conducting business with Huawei.  Italy wants to dissolve the parliament for new elections, so Investors are a bit jittery for any Italian Bond holdings.  MBS is currently down between 5-8bps.  Mortgage Rates had an intra-day price change yesterday afternoon and received better pricing; so, pricing this morning is better than yesterday morning's pricing, but the same as yesterday's close.  Yields are now sitting around 1.71%.

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Thursday, August 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 217k the prior week to 209k last week.  The Job Market still shows some strength.  Wholesale Inventories had 0.0% growth from May to June.  Stocks rebounded late yesterday and continued this trend this morning.  China repositioned their currency just above 7, which is a little stronger than reports yesterday at just below 7.  A poor Auction result for the 10 year Treasury Auction led to a drastic pullback to both Yields and MBS yesterday.  MBS is currently down about 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain unnchanged from yesterday's close; however, we did have a price change for the worse yesterday; so, we're a little higher than yesterday morning.  Yields have risen to 1.77%.

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Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic data to report from the calendar today.  Global Yields are dropping like hotcakes!  Germany reports terrible economic data and reach historic lows with their Yields (-0.59%).  Central Banks from New Zealand, India and Thailand cut rates to keep up with the other Central Banks.  These moves are highlighted by China's response to Tariffs by manipulating their currency by devaluing it below 7.  Stocks are in a  freefall again today, as a result.  MBS is currently up 20bps, so Mortgage Rates continue the trend of Improvement.  Yields have dramatically dropped to 1.63% with no end in site.

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Friday, August 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today, we get the Big Jobs Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The Non-Farm Payroll reported 164k new jobs in July; however, there was a revision of -41k to the last 2 months of reports.  Also, the Unemployment Rate remained the same (3.7%) due to an increase in people entering the Labor Market.  Average Hourly Earnings rose by .3% in July.  Consumer Sentiment, also, remained unchanged at 98.4.  Factory Orders rebounded in June, as they rose 0.6% (vs. contracted by 1.3% in May).  Stocks are well in the Red, following yesterday's late reaction to President Trump's tweet on the 10% Tariffs on the remaining $300 Billion of Chinese Goods, which will go into effect on September 1st.  This has spooked Investors, as the both nations just returned back to the table this week; and are concerned this will heighten tensions between the nations.  On the other hand, it is reported that President Trump will announce a new deal that the  US will be exporting more beef to the EU.  MBS are near flat, +2 bps, as they had a very nice rally yesterday.  Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday morning and about the same as yesterday's close; so, depending upon the Lender, whether they added the afternoon's price improvement to yesterday or today, is what will determine if Mortgage Rates improved or not from yesterday's close.  Yields fell all the way down to 1.88%.

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Thursday, August 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 8/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215k last week -still a very low number.  Remember, we have the BLS' Jobs data tomorrow!  ISM Manufacturing Index dipped from 51.7% to 51.2% in July.  Anything above 50% is considered in expansion territory on this index.  Construction Spending continued to slump, as it dropped 1.3% in June.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as the Fed had to backtrack on earlier comments regarding outlook for future rate decisions as this is a "mid-cycle adjustment"; whereas Investors took this comment as the Fed is One and Done with the Rate Cut.  It wasn't a very good comment to make, so he back tracked and basically expressed that any rate decision going forward will be data driven.  So, Investors may take this as any good news moving forward will mean bad news, as in the Fed won't cut rates any further due to good economic data.  The stocks closed above their lows, but still very low.  MBS closed yesterday off their highs, but are rebounding today, as they're Up 22bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved.  Yields are down to 1.96% and broke below it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci levels, further helping MBS and improvement to Mortgage Rates.

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Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP reported 156k new jobs in July, which is Up from it's 112k reported in June.  The Employment Cost Index rose only 0.6%, under forecasts of 0.7%, in Q2.  Annual Compensation Growth dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%.  The Fed likes reviewing this Index for possible Wage based Inflation.  It was a favorite for former Fed Greenspan.  This tells us that Inflation is tame.  Manufacturing in the Chicago region continued to contract, as the Chicago PMI reported that it dropped from 49.7 in June to 44.4 in July.  Any number below 50 is in contraction mode.  Stocks are lightly trading and in Mixed Territory ahead of the FOMC statement at 11:15am PST.  It is expected they will cut .25% from the Fed Funds rate, the first rate cut in more than a decade.  Investors will listen intently to Fed Powell's statement for any clues.  His statement could greatly alter the Markets today, so be on guard!  The US and China delegation continue with their Trade Talks without anything new to report.  MBS is currently Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates will be better this morning.  But this could be short-lived!  Be careful!  It will be based on how the Investors feel after listening and reviewing the upcoming FOMC Announcement and Fed Chair's comments afterwards.  Yields have slid down to 2.04% and is testing it's 25 DMA.

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Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's a lot of data today on the Economic Calendar.  We'll start with the Personal Income, which rose 0.4% in June; and Consumer Spending (on the other spectrum) rose 0.3% in June.  The Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.1% in June and remained at 1.4% YoY; however, the Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% in June and it's YoY rose from 1.5% to 1.6%.  The Fed's Target rate is 2.0%.  This is important to note, as it's expected the Fed will cut the Fed Funds Rates by 0.25% tomorrow.  The ECI report will be important for the Market, as they will want to gauge possible wage inflation. Case Shiller's HPI dropped from 3.5% YoY appreciation in April to 3.4% in May.  Consumer Confidence soared to 135.7 in June!  Pending Home Sales picked up in June at the tune of 2.8%.  Stocks are Down this morning, as they continue to cipher thru the Earnings Reports and watch the US/China continue their Trade Talks.  Expectations are low at this point, as neither side seem to want to budge on remaining differences.  The FOMC begins it's 2 day meeting today.  As mentioned, they're expected to cut it's Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% tomorrow morning (announcement will be around 11:15am PST).  MBS is currently Up 2bps, so there's not enough movement to have any price changes with Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.06%.

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Monday, July 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no scheduled data to be released today from the Economic Calendar; however, this week, we have a wide range of important data to be released (namely Inflation, housing and Jobs).  On top othat data, we have the FOMC, which begins tomorrow and is expected to cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% on Wednesday.  The US and China representatives are expected to meet for the first time tomorrow in China, as the 2 nations try to complete the trade negotiations.  It's not expected to have much progress done from just this meeting, but it provides some optimism for Investors that they're back to the table and talking.  There's still more Corporate Earnings Reports being released this week.  Currently, the Stock Market is trading in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is the lone index in Positive Territory.  This week could be very volatile, so expect a possible rollercoaster effect.  MBS started the morning a little higher, but has since dropped 3bps below Friday's close, and sitting at it's Floor of Support.  Yields are a little lower too, as they reside at 2.06% now.

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Friday, July 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Q2 GDP rose 2.1%, which was higher than forecasts of 1.9%.  The Final Q1 GDP was 3.1%.  There were some good things out of this GDP, like the increase in Consumer Spending; however, the Businesses pulled back on their spending.  This report, along with (overall) positive Earnings Reports is pushing Stocks higher today.  MBS is Up 2bps, but has been testing it's double floor of support today.  There is no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.07%.  Next week can be a catalyst for MBS.  We have the FOMC, PCE and Jobs data.  Even though the Fed cuts rates next week, Mortgage Rates could have an adverse effect if PCE comes in hotter than forecast.  The arch enemy to bonds is inflation, as it erodes the bonds value.  So be cautious going into next week!

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Thursday, July 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Claims dropped 10k this week to 206k people applying for Unemployment; other words, less people applying for Benefits, so it's an improvement.  Also, Durable Goods Orders jumped up 2.0% in June, after it dropped 2.3% in May.  Even after you remove Transportation, it improved 1.2%.  Stocks are trading in the Red today, as today is one of the busiest days for Corporate Earnings being released.  Also, the ECB announced they are planning for more measures of stimulation for their next meeting in September.  This will probably include lowering their interest rates to negative territory again and bond buying purchase program (in other words, more of the same -but without any results).  MBS tested it's floor of support earlier on, but is currently down 8bps.  It's not enough to have any change or effect on pricing for Mortgage Rates, which have been relatively the same range this whole week.  Yields spiked to 2.08%.

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Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have both Manufacturing and Services Sectors being represented by Markit PMI flash Indexes being reported today.  It's Manufacturing dropped from 50.6 in June to 50.0 in July; whereas, it's Services increased from 51.5 to 52.2.  New Home Sales increased from 604k annualize units in May to 646k in June.  However, it is important to note that the number in May was revised lower, so it's 7% increase in June, is more like 3.2% (without the revision).  Still a good number, but need to point out the reason behind these spikes.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as Coporate Earnings are influencing the Markets, most notably Catepillar and Boeing's very disappointing results (DOW is down over 100 so far this morning).  Also, Tech Stocks are being tested, as the DOJ is opening an Anti Trust Probe into the large High Tech Businesses Practices that are hurting smaller businesses.  It was announced that Lighthizer and Mnuchin will be going to China for their first face-to-face meetings since G20 Meetings, so there's some optimism growing.  MBS is Up 9bps, but it's not enough to change pricing  for Mortgage Rates.  We're about the same levels as Monday's.  Yields have come down from their last minute surge at yesterday's closing (2.07%) to 2.05% this morning.

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Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.1% in May, and is Up 5.0% YoY.  The FHFA HPI is an index that measures home prices for home with Conforming loans.  May's numbers doesn't seem like a lot, but it was off a very good April that saw it rise 0.4%.  Existing Home Sales shrank from 5.36 million annualized units to 5.27 million.  This is a 1.7% drop; however, this number is a bit deceiving because May was a very strong Month (it was up around 3%) and was revised higher.  So, if there wasn't a revision, then the drop would have been 1.3%.  Not a lot of difference, but can't forget that we're coming off a very strong May.  The Media will harp on this negative, but you will know and understand the truth!  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory today, as they're mostly influenced with some strong Earnings Reports.  Also, Investors are looking ahead, not only to the FOMC at the end of this month, but to Thursday when the ECB meets.  There are rumblings that the ECB may cut rates at this meeting after the Fed made it clear they will at their upcoming meeting.  It is expected to be very dovish.  Also, Great Britain will have a new leader, Boris Johnson, whom is a hard-line Brexit.  It will be interesting how they proceed with their leave from the EU.  MBS is Up 3bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today, as we've been in a sideways pattern the last few trading days.  Yields are at 2.04% range.

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Monday, July 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data from the calendar to report today.  We will see a lot of Housing Data later this week, however.  Stocks started the morning in Positive Territory; however, the DOW has since turned Negative, so Stocks are Mixed.  There are further Corporate Earnings Reports being released all week.  China has reported that representatives from the US will be visiting Beijing for face-to-face meetings, perhaps this week.  Also, Oil spiked a bit after Iran captured a British flagged Tanker on Friday.  MBS are Up 13bps, so Mortgage Rates have improved this morning.  Yields are still residing between it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci level at 2.03%.

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Friday, July 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment slightly improved from June to July, as it went from 98.2 to 98.4, even though forecasts were calling for higher number, 99.0.  Stocks are in Positive Territory.  Microsoft is a Big Winner, as they blew out their numbers!  More Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  The Big news came from comments by NY Fed President Williams, whom spoke yesterday on the importance of cutting rates sooner than later.  As a result, both the Stock and Bond Market rallied.  Today, however, they're walking backwards and state the context of his comments yesterday were in reference to academic study and no bearing of the upcoming FOMC.  As a result, he's receiving a lot of criticism.  MBS is Down (currently 5bps, even though it started further down at -11bps), as a result of today's comments by a rep of Fed Williams.  However, they're now above the Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates received a Price Improvement yesterday, however, today, we're priced at the same levels as yesterday's close.  Yields are sitting at 2.04% and just above it's Fibonacci level and below it's 25 DMA.

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Thursday, July 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: This week's Initial Jobless Claims rose from last week's revised number (from 209k) of 208k to this week's of 216k.  This week's number is important, as it will be used by the BLS with their Jobs numbers for July.  This will be released Aug. 2nd.  Manufacturing rebounded, "Big Time", in the Philadelphia region, as the Philly Fed jumped Up from being near contraction in June, at 0.3 to  21.8 in July, which is the highest number for this year.  Also, Leading Indicators show the economy beginning to slow down to -0.3% in June.  These numbers are usually good outlook for the economy in about 6 months.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning.  More Earnings Reports are being released.  Some of the Big Names mentioned were United Health and Netflix.  Netflix lost 126k subscriptions in the US last month.  Steven Mnuchin tries to calm Investors perception on the US' Trade Talk with China, that it's still ongoing.  MBS had a good rally yesterday and closed right at the Fibonacci level, which is our Ceiling of Resistance.  We've been testing it since early June.  We're sitting between it's 25 DMA and Fibonacci level.  Mortgage Rates remained Unchanged after yesterday's improvement, as they're just down about 2bps.  Yields fell down to it's 25 DMA and are sitting on this Floor of Support, which is at 2.07%.

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Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.265 million annualized units in May to 1.253 million in June.  Building Permits dropped from 1.299 million annualized units in May to 1.220 million in June.  The Fed Beige Book, which reports the Fed's economic view of the various regions around the US, will be released at 11am PST.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning, as more Corporate Earnings Reports are being released.  B of A seems to be getting the brunt of it today even though it appeared that it had a lot of positive aspects to it's report.  Also, President Trump tweeted yesterday that the US and China are still a long ways off from reaching an agreement, and the Tariffs are still on the table.  Investors are concerned and the sentiment is still reeling in today's Market.  As I mentioned in the video, I created this video early in the day, which the Market is just starting, so a lot can change since I created this.  Currently MBS is Up 11bps, which appears to be trending upward this morning, and sitting between the 25 DMA and the Fibonacci level.  This can lead to better pricing on Mortgage Rates this morning, as Lenders on the West Coast have not yet released their pricing.  Yields have slid down to 2.09%.

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Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Both the Headline Retail Sales and it's sub-component without Autos had the exact reading for the month of July, as it continued the 0.4% MoM growth from May-June and June-July.  As we saw from previous Manufacturing Reports in June, the Industrial Production report was stagnant (0.0%) in June.  Capacity Utilization slide from 78.1% to 77.9% in June.  Business Inventories rose 0.3% in May.  Home Builder's confidence slightly rose in July from 64 to 65, as the NAHB Home Builders Index announces.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory after hitting highs yesterday.  NASDAQ and S&P are taking a bit of a breather, while the DOW continues to hit new intra-day highs.  Corporate Earnings Reports, especially for the Banking Sector, are taking center stage.  Most of the banks are hitting their lowered expected performances.  Profit Margins are shrinking and Loan Activity is down.  MBS is currently down 11bps, and has hit -12, so many Lenders have priced in a little higher Interest Rates.  They're still sitting between it's 25- and 50 DMA.  Yields have now climbed to 2.13%, which is still in middle of it's 25- and 50 DMA.  The 50 DMA sits around the 2.20%, so it's feasible that we see Yields reach this level before we see any further improvement (lower Yields).

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Monday, July 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/15/19

http://MikesDaily MarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the NY region improved in July, as the Empire State Index rose from -8.6 to 4.3 -better than most forecasts of 0.5.  Stocks are currently in Negative Territory, after they initially started the day in Positive Territory.  Today, we got the Unofficial Start to Corporate Earnings Reports for Q2.  CitiGroup led off with great numbers, however, investors were disappointed with it's cuts in costs.  China's GDP slowed to it's slowest pace since 1992 at 6.2%; however, investors liked that the stimulus that China laid out appears to be effective, as their Industrial Production jumped from 5.0% tp 6.3% MoM and Retail Sales jumped Up 9.8%.  MBS is Up only 3bps and fighting overhead resistance at it's 25 DMA, which has become a Ceiling of Resistance.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are sitting around 2.10% in the middle range of it's 25- and 50 DMA.

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Friday, July 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inflation remains moderate in June, as it rose 0.1%, and it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.  But if you remove uncontrollable variables, as food and energy, the we have the Core PPI, which carries more weight.  It rose 0.3% in June, however, it's YoY remained at 2.3%.  Stocks continue their Upward trend this morning, after Investors were satisfied with staements made by Fed Chair Powell during the past 2 days of Congressional Testimony.  A bad 30 year Bond Auction yesterday afternoon sank the Bonds/MBS, as it closed down 34 bps, and led Lenders to reprice for higher Mortgage Rates.  This morning, we're Up 9bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday afternoon's repricing.  Yields have climbed up to 2.12% now.  Both have broken their Trend lines, which will create a Short-Term Speed Bump before we see further improvements in our Mortgage Rates.  We may see a little more worsening before it gets better in the Short-Term.

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Thursday, July 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 209k last week.  Remember, this was a Holiday shortened week, so we could potentially see a higher number next week.  Next week's number will have added significance, as it will be the "sample" number for the BLS with their Jobs data.  Meanwhile, Inflation is still showing moderate levels via the Consumer Priced Index for the month of June.  The CPI went up 0.1%, so it's YoY dropped from 1.8% to 1.6%.  However, the Core CPI (CPI excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% in June; and it's YoY rose from 2.0% to 2.1%.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory this morning.  We have a few Fed Memebers speaking today, including Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, speaking before the Senate today.  He will have the same talking points, as yesterday's Congresssional Hearing, but we'll watch to be sure nothing else "pops up".  Also, there will be a 30yr Bond Auction today, which could move the Bond Market.  MBS is currently down 8bps and sitting on it's Fibonacci Level.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Meanwhile, Yields are stubbornly holding above it's 25 DMA.  We need to monitor this because if it continues to rise, then it will add pressure to MBS and Mortgage Rates will worsen.  It has a lot of room to the upside, if it elects to break the short-term trend; even though, longer term, I think it will drop more.

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Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Wholesale Inventories rose 0.4% in May. The FOMC Minutes will be released later this morning at 11am PST.  This report won't hold as much weight, as in the past.  The last meeting took place on June 16th; but since then, we had a terrific Jobs Report, which concerned Investors enough that they couldn't help, but wonder if it may alter the Fed's plan to cut rates in July.  Jerome Powell helped to ease those concerns today, as he speaks before Congress.  He stated that there are concerns of the uncertainty of economic growth and inflation receding.  Also, he sees Consumer spending rebounding and strong Jobs, but sees Businesses not reinvesting.  This is helping Stocks this morning, as all 3 indices are trading in the Green.  MBS is currently Up 14bps, which Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday's pricing.  They started below it's 25 DMA and right up against it's Fibonacci level.  This Fibonacci level has been very tough to consistently break and stay above it.  Soon, it will need to make a choice, as the 25 DMA is approaching it.  Yields are at 2.04%.  It is below it's 25 DMA and at it too is right up on it's Fibonacci level, which has been very tough to consistently break and remain below.  If it can consistently break below it, which I think it will soon, then we can expect to see Mortgage Rates continue to improve.

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Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index dropped from 105.0 in May to 103.3 in June.  This index is a gauge with the Small Business sector's confidence.  Job Openings shrunk from 7.4 million in April to 7.3 million in May.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ remains the lone index in Positive Territory.  Jerome Powell is speaking on Stress Tests on Banks today, but will be meeting with Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.  Trading will expect to be volatile over the next 2 days, as investors weigh thoughts on rate cuts in July.  Right now, as stocks seem a bit risky, they're being dropped a bit to minimize their risk.  There were Preliminary Tariff discussion proposed on Steel from Mexico and China, as counter-measures to Anti-Dumping.  Also, trade tensions are heating up between S Korea and Japan that may affect Electronic Makers, like Apple and Huawei.  The dispute stems from a recent Court ruling in S Korea that favors retribution on Nippon Steel to pay for it's forced labor during the early 1900's.  Japan is upset that the Gov't didn't intervene, as they felt the retribution was paid and resolved in 1965.  Meanwhile, MBS is down 3bps and drifting toward it's 25 DMA.  Currently, there's No Change to Mortgage Rates; however, we want to watch this!  If we drop below the 25 DMA, then it's next support is about 50bps lower at the 50 DMA.  Yields are adding to the pressure, as they are pushing up against it's 25 DMA and sitting at 2.04%.

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Monday, July 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's no economic news scheduled on the Calendar today.  Stocks are trading in the Red this morning, as Investors are repositioning their thoughts on the upcoming FOMC at the end of the month.  The Jobs data on Friday were better than expected, which thwarted any notion of a 0.5% Rate Cut; however, I do think the Fed still may cut (by 0.25%) at it's upcoming meeting.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speaki 3 times, so Investors will be listening to him very carefully of any clues.  MBS is currently Up 6bps, after it pulled back from earlier gains, so I don't think you'll see any change in Lender Pricing for Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields are currently hanging just beneath it's Ceiling of Resistance at 2.03%.

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Friday, July 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The BLS released their Jobs report for June, which came in higher than the expected 170k.  The number came in at 224k new Jobs.  However, the Unemployment Rate ticked Up from 3.6% to 3.7%.  This was done, as a result of 335k new people came to the Labor Force.  Also, the Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2% in June.  Good News means Bad News for the Markets however, as Stocks are well into the Red.  The great Job Numbers now may influence the Fed's Decision to cut rates in July. This will definitely eliminate the talk of a 0.5% cut that some were expecting; but there's a larger Group whom still believes the Fed may cut 0.25% in July, then see where the economy goes.  Inflation is being stubbornly low, and lower than the Fed's 2.0% target rate, so it's still highly possible that this may occur.  MBS is currently down 27bps, even testing it's 25 DMA.  We'll see if it closes back above it's Fibonacci line, which should provide a Floor of Support.  Also, Yields are rising toward it's 25 DMA and just above it's Fibonacci (or Ceiling of Resistance).  Due to recent trends, I believe these are just short-term reactionary moves by the Market.  I do believe Rates will continue to improve.  The movement of the 25 DMA will help in that matter!  So, Mortgage Rates worsened today!

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Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP had a revision for it's May's numbers, which was revised higher from it's initial of 27k to 41k.  It's numbers rose in June, from 41k to 102k; but below it's estimations, which were closer to the 160-180k range.  Initial Jobless Claims, also, had a revision from it's report last week, going from 227k to 229k.  So, the Jobless Claims dropped from 229k to 221k this week.  The Markit Services PMI rose from 50.7in May to 51.5 in June.  However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 56.5% in May to 55.1% in June.  Factory Orders continued their contraction by dropping by 0.7% in May (after dropping by 1.2% in April). The Stock Market is Up this morning on news that Christine Lagarde, whom is President of the IMF, will replace Mario Draghi, as the Head of the ECB when the time Draghi leaves his post.  Both Markets liked this news, as Draghi has demonstrated to be super Dovish, and it's believed that Lagarde will follow his path.  MBS is currently Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates will improve again today.  Yields are down just a hair below 1.95%.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are in Negative Territory this morning, after yesterday's rally on the euphoria on the agreement between US and China to go back to the table for their Trade Talk.  Now Wallstreet is waiting on Job Numbers that will be released on Friday.  Stocks are high now, so they don't want to over-extend themselves, if the economy doesn't show that it's strong enough to support it's current levels.  Also, US and EU are bickering about subsidies to Aerobus and Boeing, which is translating to some additional Tariffs.  OPEC and Russia met and agreed to cut oil production to drive up prices, so gas prices look to rise again in the near future.  Meanwhile, MBS is currently Up 14bps.  It was lower and has worked it's way up.  If it can sustain this level today, then you may see Lenders come out  with better pricing on Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have slipped down to 2.00% now.

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Monday, July 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 7/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.1 in May to 50.7 in June.  ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 52.1% in May to 51.7% in June.  Globally, many countries (like China, Japan and Germany) are contracting in Manufacturing.  Constructions Spending dropped 0.8% in May.  This is much lower than it's forecasts of +0.3%.  Stocks are trading well into the Positive Territory, as they are feeling good after the meeting between President Trump and President Xi.  Apparently, there's a truce, and they'll pretty much go back to negotiations from where they left off.  The restrictions on Huawei will be lifted somewhat and China will buy large amounts of Farm goods from US.  Not much details have been released about the talks.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so there's no change to Mortgage Rates today.  Yields are trying to rise again, which they're currently sitting at 2.01%.

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Friday, June 28, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot on the Economic Calendar today!  Starting off with the Personal Income for the month of May, which was up 0.5%; whereas, Consumer Spending was up 0.4% in May.  Personal Consumption Expenditure was Up 0.2%, as was the Core PCE (also called Core Inflation) Up 0.2%, for May.  However, the PCE's YoY dropped from 1.6% to 1.5%; and the Core PCE remained Unchanged at 1.6%.  The Fed has a target rate of 2.0%, so this is well below it's target rate.  Could be another reason for Fed to cut Rates in July.  Manufacturing contracted in the Chicago Region, as the Chicago PMI dropped from 54.2 to 49.7 in June.  The final number for the Consumer Sentiment rose from 97.9 in May to 98.2 in June.  Stocks are Trading in Positive Territory this morning, but it's light trading.  For the week, they may close Unchanged, similar to MBS.  Investors are waiting on the meeting of President Trump and President Xi, which is tomorrow.  Nobody expects a deal to be completed, but looking to see if US holds off on additional Tariffs and get back to the table.  MBS are mostly unchanged, as they are Up only 2bps, and Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's  pricing.  Yields are currently at 2.0%.

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Thursday, June 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 227k this week, along with a revision of 1k to last week's numbers from 216k to 217k.  The Final Revision for the Q1 GDP remained at 3.1%.  It will be interesting to see what Q2 provides.  Q1 was a lot of build up of Inventories during the Tariff Talk and Q2 started with the Detente between US and China Negotiations.  So, it will be interesting to see how much of an impact it played.  Pending Home Sales improved for May, as it rebounded from April's decline of 1.5% to increase of 1.1%; the YoY improved from being down 2.0% to being down 0.7%.  Stocks started the morning in Mixed Territory and is now trading in Positive Territory.  Much of the impact came from some conflicting reports on the upcoming US and China meeting at the G20.  Boeing is also weighing on stocks, as it another design flaw was discovered, which will most likely delay their status of being grounded.  MBS is doing well today, as it's Up 14bps, so Mortgage Rates will show improvement on their pricing.  Yields have slid down to 2.02%, releasing pressure on MBS.

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Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders are still dragging, as Boeing's (737 Max) woes continue to bring down those numbers.  April's numbers were revised lower, as the revision led from -2.1% to -2.8%; and it declined 1.3% in May.  However, if you remove Transportation, then it improved from 0.0% in April to 0.3% in May.  Stocks are in a good mood today, as comments by Steven Mnuchin on CNBC were the US and China Negotiations are 90% completed.  However, that hasn't changed prior to the stall in the negotiations, as we were 90% completed at that point.  President Trump and Jinping plan to meet Saturday at the G20 Summit in Japan, as they discuss bridging the gap between the two nations.  As a result of the positive news for stocks, this is creating more pressure for MBS, as they are currently down 11bps.  This has resulted in a slight worse in pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields are clawing their way back to the (newly turned) Ceiling of Resistance at 2.03%.

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Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  A few items on the Economic Calendar to report this morning.  First up is the Case Shiller HPI for April.  Home Prices dropped from 3.7% YoY to 3.5% YoY.  Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 131.3 in May to 121.5 in June.  Much bigger than our forecast of 130.4.  Lastly, New Home Sales have slowed to it's lowest level since 2012.  It dropped from 679k annualized units in April to 626k in May.  Stocks are in the Red this morning ahead of several Fed Memebers Speaking Engagements, but notably one stands out, whom is Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  MBS is right up against it's Ceiling of Resistance, which is just Up 2bps from yesterday's close.  There's no change in pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slid down below it's Floor of Support to 1.99%.  It has a bit of room before it sees it's next Floor of Support, which will lessen pressure on MBS and quite possibly help propel it further Up, which will improve Mortgage Rates.

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Monday, June 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/24/19

http:MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Economic Calendar is light today, so the Geo-Political will have the most affect on the Markets today.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ is currently in the Red.  Investors are looking ahead to the G20 Summit in Japan, which begins Friday, when it is expected that President Trump and Jinping will speak and hopefully work thru the detente in the Trade Negotiations.  Also, Investors are watching the US and Iran's tensions mount, as the US looks to increase sanctions on Iran.  Currently, the MBS is Up 11bps.  Not quite enough to improve Mortgage Rates from their disappointing end to Friday.  Yields are trying to fall below it's floor of support, after breaking above it Friday.  It's currently sitting just below the Fibonacci level at 2.01%.

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Friday, June 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Both Manufacturing and Services Sectors are shrinking according to the Markit Flash PMI Indices.  The Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in May to 50.1 in June.  The Markit Flash Services PMI dropped from 50.9 in May to 50.7 in June.  Anything above 50 in these indices indicates expansion, so they're approaching a contraction level, if they continue this path.  However, we did get good news from the Housing Sector, which Existing Home Sales jumped Up from 5.19 million annualized units to 5.34 million in May.  This was a 2.5% Month-over-Month Increase; however, April was revised higer, so without the revision, the MoM would be closer to 3.0% improvement.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory.  S&P are down today, after it hit record territory yesterday, so it's taking a bit of a breather today.  A few members of the Fed are speaking, which reiterates the possibility of a rate cut coming in July.  However, this may turn into a possible debate of how much of a cut, .25% or .50%?  Investors are still optimistic that the US and China will return to the table to complete Trade negotiations.  Also, on the minds is the escalating tension between the US and Iran.  Iran is being blamed by the US for attacks on Oil Tankers passing by the Strait of Hormuz; and President Trump mentioned that he halted a last minute retaliatory strike against Iran for the missle strike on a US drone.  MBS is down 13bps, so Mortgage Rates are down from yesterday's pricing.  There was a price change (for the worse) late yesterday, as the MBS' rally deteriorated.  It is currently below the previous tough ceiling, but this is most likely a temporary situation, and I believe the rates will continue to improve.  Yields rose above it's previous tough floor of support, but again, I believe it will fall beneath this layer again.  It's currently sitting at 2.05%  If you are looking to refinance or buy a home, then please feel free to DM.  I can help with the financing.

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Thursday, June 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims dropped from the previous week of 222k to 216k for this week's data.  This week's data is important becuase it is being used by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's (BLS) Job Numbers for June, which will be released on July 5th.  The lower number may result in a strong Jobs Number.  More data indicates that Manufacturing is slowing, as the Philly Fed Index (manufacturing in the Philadelphia region) has dropped from 16.6 to 0.3 in June (bordering on contraction).  Leading Indicators don't show any improvement in May (0.0%).  Stocks are following it's rally from yesterday, after the Fed's Announcement.  They received what they were expecting, which was to remove the "patient" from the language and indicated a more accomodative stance, as it will be expected for them to cut rates at the July Meeting.  The Bank of Japan and Bank of England continued the sentiments of the ECB and Fed, as they too will be more accomodative.  MBS had rallied after Fed Announcement yesterday (up 33bps) and continues today (Up 23bps), so Mortgage Rates have Improved.  If you check out the chart on the video, then we broke above the ceiling of resistance.  This breakout allows us more room for Mortgage Rates to continue improving (until next ceiling of resistance).  On the other hand, Yields have fallen below it's strong floor of support, and has broken below 2.0% for the first time in 2.5 years.  It is currently sitting at 1.98%.

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Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today is Fed Day!  The Fed wraps up it's 2 day meeting and will provide their decision around 11am PST today, so expect some Market Volatility.  All eyes are on the Fed today, as they await their decision.  The sentiment is the Fed will set the stage for a July Rate Cut and remove the word "patient" from it's language.  Investors will review the wording carefully and the Dot Plot, so they can see if the Fed may be thinking more than 1 Rate Cut this year.  Nothing else on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are currently trading in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is the only Index trading in Positive Territory.  President Trump tweeted yesterday that he had a phone conversation with Chinese President Jinping, which they'll have an "extended" meeting together at the G20 Meeting next week.  This was well received by Investors with hope of a conclusion to the Trade Negotiations between the 2 countries.  MBS is currently down 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's Interest Rates.  Yields are clawing their way back above the Floor of Support at 2.09%.

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Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Housing Starts came in at 1.27 million annualized units for May compared to a revised (higher) 1.29 million annualized units in April.  The revision shows it dropped; but without the revision, it would have rose.  Building Permits remained unchanged from April to May at 1.29 million annualized units.  The Fed begins their 2 day meeting today, which it is expected to set up next month's meeting for a possible rate cut.  Stocks are really taking off (DOW is currently up 400 points), as comments by ECB's Mario Draghi stoke the fire.  He reiterated his desire to cut rates further to jumpstart the EU Economy and further reduce their Yields into deeper Negative Territory (Deutsche Bund is now -.313%).  This is lowering Yields on a Global Level, even pushing our Yields below it's Floor of Support.  The ECB's comments will add more pressure to the Fed to cut it's rates.  MBS is Up 9bps, after touching 20bps earlier this morning.  I'd say that Pricing got better back East, but on the West Coast, Pricing Remained the same, as those gains shrunk by the time they opened.  Yields are down to 2.06%.

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Monday, June 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing in the NY region had one of it's worst declines in June, according to the Empire State Index, which went from 17.8 in May to -8.6 in June.  Also, confidence is starting to wane with Home Builders, as the NAHB Home Builder Index, which is a survey to gauge their confidence dropped from 66 to 64; however, any reading above 50 is considered optimism.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as i'ts preparing for the FOMC.  A few Economists are calling for a Rate Cut at this coming meeting, but the odds are around 27% for such an occurence.  Most, around 87%, are projecting a Rate Cut for July's Meeting.  The sentiment is the Fed wants to be transparent and set the stage for a Cut.  If they cut at this meeting, then it may be viewed as an Emergency or Crisis and spook the Markets.  Investors will review the Dot Plot to see how many Cuts may happen this year, as some are calling for 2 Cuts; as well as, some change in the Fed's language.  Stocks are also being led by a few major players, like Sotheby's possible acquisition to be Private; and Facebook's upcoming release of it's own Crypto Currency.  MBS is down 6bps, which is not quite enough for Mortgage Rates to worsen, so Interest Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are still hovering the low end of it's Trade line and sitting at 2.09%.

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Friday, June 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a lot of data on the Economic Calendar to report today.  We'll start with the Retail Sales and Retail Sales without Autos for May, which were both up 0.5%.  This was on the heels of a positive revision the previous month for both data points.  Industrial Production rose 0.4% in May.  Capacity Utilization rose from 77.9% to 78.1% in May.  However, Consumer Sentiment dropped from 100 to 97.9 in June.  It's final number will be toward the end of the month, so we'll see if the Consumer is feeling less enthused continues for the whole month.  Business Inventories rose 0.5% in April.  Stocks are down, even though we have relatively good economic data being reported, however, the Geo-Political news is taking more of a command of the Markets today.  China reported some more disappointing Economic data, which  is reminder to the Investors on an Global Economic slowdown.  Iran is denying any part in the recent Tanker attacks.  Oil prices are higher, which neither the Stock, nor Bond likes the news of higher Oil prices.  Of course, there are concerns that this could result in more tensions, and possibly with Military involvement.  Broadcom has lowered their expectations for the year, which is being attributed to the impasse between the US and China.  This is affecting the rest of the High Tech sector.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have slid down to the 2.08% range and is testing the floor of support, which is important to Yields.  If this breaks, then Mortgage Rates can continue to improve off these current rates.

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Thursday, June 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from the previous week's numbers, going from 219k to 222k.  However, the previous week's numbers were revised higher by 1k (218k to 219k).  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning.  There was a more positive tone today, as President Trump indicated that there was no timetable on any further Tariffs with China, and a deal could happen.  Oil is rising a bit this morning on news that a few tankers were attacked at the Gulf of Oman.  Iran is suspected in these attacks, as there are growing tensions between US and Iran.  MBS is only Up 2bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today.  Yields remain at 2.12%, as well.

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Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Priced Index rose only 0.1% in May, which it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.8%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose only 0.1%.  It's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 2.0%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, despite the lower Consumer Inflation data, as Investors continue to watch the drama between the US and China' Trade Talks.  President Trump recently tweeted that he's holding up the talks, and his sentiment is that the deal should be great for both US and China, otherwise, there's no sense in making an agreement.  This is souring the Markets a bit.  Also, there are Mass Protests in Hong Kong over recent laws that will allow China to extradite from Hong Kong to the mainland.  This isn't sitting well with the people of Hong Kong.  MBS is Up 9bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.12%.

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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NFIB Small Business, which measures the confidence among Small Businesses, rose from 103.5 in April to 105.0 in May.  Producer Priced Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose 0.1% in May.  However, it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 1.8%, further illustrating that inflation is still fairly tame.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as China plans a new Stimulus project aimed to re-build it's infracture within it's local municipalities and is issuing Bonds for this project.  MBS are Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are now at 2.15%.

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Monday, June 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are Up this morning after it was announced over the weekend that the US and Mexico reached an agreement over the migration issue, so the US will not impose sanctions.  Steven Mnuchin and PBC's Yi Gang had reportedly very candid and constructive talks while at the G20 meeting.  Reports came out of China that their Exports rose slightly and their imports dropped sharply.  MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates rose slightly.  Yields rose to 2.14%.

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Friday, June 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nonfarm Payroll really disappointed in May, as only 75k new jobs were created.  Also, there were revisions from the previous 2 months, which were lowered by 75k combined.  Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%.  Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% in May.  Wholesale Inventories rose 0.8% in April.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as today's Bad News (in terms of disappointing Job Numbers) is feeling like Good News because the sentiment is the Fed will cut Interest Rates sooner than later (possibly this summer).  There's been some progress made on the talks with Mexico to help curb the influx of people trying to cross the US Borders.  Not sure if it's enough progress for President Trump to halt the Tariffs on Monday.  Not much has been changed between US and China.  The People's Bank of China was commented that they have enough tools to be able to stimulate their economy even during a Trade Spat with the US.  MBS is Up 17bps, so Mortgage Rates Improved today.  Yields continue their decline, as they reach 2.07%.

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Thursday, June 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rose this week from 215k from previous week to 218k.  These are still low numbers, which is why Investors shrugged off the ADP number yesterday.  They're anticipating approximately 190k new jobs for tomorrow's BLS' report.  Q1 Productivity was revised a bit lower, from 3.6% to 3.4%.  Unit Labor Costs (Q1) was revised further declines from -0.9% to -1.6%.  This can help keep inflation low.  Stocks have shifted into Negative Territory this morning, as the Market Sentiment became more risk aversed due to the Dovish Speak with Central Speakers and US' Trade Talks with Mexico and China.  The ECB held their rate at -0.4% and pledged to maintain that rate for 2019.  Earlier this week, US Fed Members also had a dovish tone to their speeches, which many are led to believe a rate hike will come.  President Trump is ready to add Tariffs to Mexico on Monday, as he stated the Talks haven't progressed enough to warrant a halt to the Tariffs.  Also, it is believed that the US will carry out the Tariffs on China's remaining $300 Billion Goods after G20 Meeting at the end of June (the 29th).  MBS is Up 5bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are now at 2.10%.

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Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP Employment number really missed it's mark in May.  It went from 271k new private jobs in April to only creating 27k in May.  This didn't weigh on the Market too much, as the ADP's number doesn't always translate to the same as the BLS'.  Most think the BLS' numbers on Friday will be around 190k due to the low Jobless Claims during May.  The Service Industry is still humming along.  We have 2 reports on this sector.  First is the Markit Services PMI, which remained Unchanged at 50.9 in May; the other is ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which rose from 55.5% to 56.9%.  Around 11:15am PST, the Fed will release it's Fed Beige Book, which will provide insight into the Micro Economics of the various Fed Regions across the US.  Stocks are continuing their rally today, as the Sentiment has changed.  Investors feel that the Fed may cut rates sometime in the near future to stimulate the economy that may be slowing due to the tariffs; along with optimism that reps from both China and US may ease the tensions from previous talks and resume those negotiations.  MBS is currently Unchanged from yesterday's closed, but MBS did drop further on the Equities rally yesterday, so some Lenders (pending when they released their pricing) may either provide worse pricing, or the same pricing, as yesterday's.  Those whom kept the same pricing, may have changed their pricing yesterday for the worse, so it kind of offsets itself.  Yields are currently at 2.11%.

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Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders dropped 0.8% in April.  Starting tomorrow, we'll look at the Job Numbers for May, which begin with the ADP numbers, then Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and BLS' Unemployment Rate and Jobs data.  Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's Negative Close.  Investors are watching the 4 biggest Tech Companies stave off tougher regulations, as the US Gov't aims to go after them with Anti Trust suits.  Some optimism developed, as reports out of China seem to indicate that they'd like to work out the differences by resuming talks.  Fed Members Bullard and Powell touch on the possibility of the Fed cutting rates as soon as this year.  Their 7/31 meeting has a 59% probability.  MBS is currently down 11bps.  We had a mid-day price improvement yesterday, but if you remove that price improvement yesterday, then our Mortgage Rates will remain Unchanged from the Morning's pricing.  Yields remain at 2.12%.

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Monday, June 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Overall Manufacturing dipped in May.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.6 to 50.5; whereas, ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 52.8% to 52.1%.  These are the lowest levels we've seen in approximately the past 20 months.  Construction Spending was revised from -0.9% to -1.7% in March; and April's numbers were almost identical to the revised numbers in March, so it was flat.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory.  NASDAQ is down because of the Anti Trust concerns with Google.  President Trump landed in London today.  Tariffs may go up again for Mexico within the next week to two, if there's no progress on the slowdown of illegal border crossings.  Also, China sent over their list of demands to the US, whom they blame for the break in talks, which include removing tariffs on some specific goods.  The tariff talk coupled with some of the lower macro economic data has led to a deeper Inverted Yield Curve, which concerns Investors, as this has been a precursor to past recessions.  MBS is Up 2bps, but Friday, it closed strong, which will lead to better pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  Yields continue their slide, per the concerns by investors with the deeper inverted Yield Curve, and are currently at 2.12%.

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Friday, May 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of Economic data to go over this morning from the Calendar.  We'll start off with Personal Income, which rose 0.5% in April; whereas Consumer Spending rose only 0.3% in April.  Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% in April, which it's YoY rose from 1.4% to 1.5%.  The Core PCE (also, known as Core Inflation) rose 0.2% in April, and rose from 1.5% to 1.6% YoY.  The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  It removes variables, food and energy, from the PCE, and provides a controlled number.  Manufacturing in Chicago region improved, as the Chicago PMI rose from 52.6 to 54.2 in May.  This was important, as we saw Manufacturing in Philadelphia and NY come to border of contraction.  Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from it's initial May reading of 102.4 to 100.00; however, it's still up from it's April reading of 97.2.  Stocks are in the Red this morning, as President Trump surprised the Markets with Tariffs on imports from Mexico.  This is in an effort to gain more support from the Mexican Gov't to address the illegal border crossing.  If it persists, then the US will continue raising Tariffs by 5% each subsequent month until it's at 25%.  As for China, there are reports that they are planning to releasing another retaliatory measure against the US, especially with their treatment toward Huawei and a few other Chinese companies, whom have been placed on the Entities list (essentially have been blacklisted).  It was reported that Manufacturing dropped again in China.  Mortgage Rates improved today, as the MBS is Up 9bps this morning; so, coupled with yesterday's higher number and today's, Lenders will show some improvement.  Yields continued to drop, as it's now down to 2.17%.  This is going to concern investors, as this will deepen the Inverted Yield Curve, which is a precursor sign toward a recession.

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Thursday, May 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose from 212k (this was revised slightly higher from 211k) to 215k (same as forecast).  Still very low amount of people filing for Unemployment.  Q1 GDP was revised slightly downward, from 3.2% to 3.1%.  Many economists were forecasting it to drop to 3.0%.  So far, it's been a great start to 2019.  We've had very poor Q1 in the past, as bad weather contributed to the past low numbers. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as the rhetoric between the US and China's trade negotiations seemed to have subsided a bit for a day.  Investors were also concerned about the Inverted Curve deepening, as the Yields have been taking a bit of a beating since the China/US talks have broken off.  MBS is flat so far this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Unchanged.  Yields did climb back a bit from yesterday's low of 2.22% to 2.27%.

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Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing scheduled for the Economic Calendar today, but tomorrow will be much busier.  The Stock Market is in Negative Territory this morning on more news on the escalating tensions between US and China.  China is now reporting that they may restrict exports to the US on Rare Earth Minerals that are used for Micro Chips, Mobile Phones and other every day electronics.  This coupled with the data supporting a possible global economic slowdown, unresolved Brexit and tensions between the EC and Italy have Investors concerned.  MBS is Up 5bps, so it's not enough for any change to develop with pricing on Mortgage Rates.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  However, Yields have continued to slide and are now at 2.22%.

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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Case Shiller Home Price Index indicates that home prices continue to slow down, having a 3.9% annualized growth in February to 3.7% in March.  Consumer Confidence Index represents the overall satisfaction by the Consumer with the standing of the US Economy, as it continues to rise from 129.2 to 134.2 in May.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning, as they still watch for any news on China/US Trade discussion, and prepare for a long, drawn out Trade War developing.  There was an announcement of a Merger between Fiat Chrysler and Renault that would make them the 3rd largest Auto producer by production.  President Trump met with Japan's PM Shinzo over the weekend.  Also, Investors are concerned over Italy, as the anit-Euro sentiment continues to win more elections there.  MBS is Up only 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from last Friday.  Yields continue to slide, and have reached 2.29%.

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Friday, May 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders dropped 2.1% in April, and it's March's number was revised lower, from 2.6% to 1.7%.  The big drop was led by lack of Boeing orders (this is after the grounding of their 737 airplanes).  If you remove the Transportation, the Durable Goods would be flat.  The Core Capital Goods Orders dropped 0.9% in April, as the index reflects Business Investment.  This is the first drop in 4 months.  Stocks are trading Up this morning on cautious optimism based on a comment by President Trump that he may allow the standing of Huawei to be negotiated into a larger Trade pact with China.  Also, the PM Theresa May of the UK has announced that she will resign from her post in June, as she's had several failed attempts to garner the support on the terms of the UK's divorce from the EC.  They have until October 31st to come to terms.  MBS is down 3bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates.  Yields remain at 2.33%.

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Thursday, May 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 212k from previous week to 211k last week; another good sign for Jobs.  However, we show Manufacturing and Services Industry slowing down.  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash dropped from 52.6 in April to 50.6 in May; and Markit Services PMI flash dropped from 53.0 in April to 50.9 in May.  Both indexes are showing that both industries are on the verge of contracting (anything above 50 on these indices is expansion, and below is contraction).  Also, New Home Sales dropped in April.  They went from 723k annualized units in March to 673k in April.  Stocks are trading way Down today, as Investors are realizing the tensions between US and China are only escalating and both sides seem to be digging in for the long-haul.  Catch the video for more info, but this tension is becoming more Global, as more companies in other countries sever ties with Huawei in order to comply with US regulations.  Also, Markit Manufacturing out of Europe contracted further, as they're forced to cut staff (first since 2014).  MBS is Up 9bps, so coupled with yesterday's improved movement, Mortgage Rates have improved some today.  Meanwhile, Yields have dropped all the way down to 2.33%.

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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only item on the Economic Calendar today is the FOMC Minutes, which will be released at 11:15am PST.  Investors are eager to review the Minutes of the Feds' last meeting and look for clues on their thoughts on the economy, rate movement and US/China.  Stocks are Down, as they await the FOMC Minutes.  Also, both China and US appear to be readying themselves to dig in for the long haul, as tensions continue to escalate between the two.  MBS is UP 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.40%.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Homes Sales slumped a bit in April, as they go from 5.21 million annualized units to 5.19 million.  Stocks are cautiously trading in Positive Territory, as the US placed a Temporary (90 days) Exception on US Businesses dealings with Huawei.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, which Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have crept up to 2.42% now.

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Monday, May 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report from the Calendar today.  Stocks are being driven by the continued tensions between the US and China, as both parties agree they won't be meeting any time soon, as neither side is willing to negotiate further.  Also, US Companies are preparing to holdback on any business relationships with Hauwei, as they will be limited on what they may sell to them.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory.  MBS is down 2bps, but it's not enough to change pricing on Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.39%.

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