Friday, June 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a lot of data on the Economic Calendar to report today.  We'll start with the Retail Sales and Retail Sales without Autos for May, which were both up 0.5%.  This was on the heels of a positive revision the previous month for both data points.  Industrial Production rose 0.4% in May.  Capacity Utilization rose from 77.9% to 78.1% in May.  However, Consumer Sentiment dropped from 100 to 97.9 in June.  It's final number will be toward the end of the month, so we'll see if the Consumer is feeling less enthused continues for the whole month.  Business Inventories rose 0.5% in April.  Stocks are down, even though we have relatively good economic data being reported, however, the Geo-Political news is taking more of a command of the Markets today.  China reported some more disappointing Economic data, which  is reminder to the Investors on an Global Economic slowdown.  Iran is denying any part in the recent Tanker attacks.  Oil prices are higher, which neither the Stock, nor Bond likes the news of higher Oil prices.  Of course, there are concerns that this could result in more tensions, and possibly with Military involvement.  Broadcom has lowered their expectations for the year, which is being attributed to the impasse between the US and China.  This is affecting the rest of the High Tech sector.  MBS is currently down 6bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have slid down to the 2.08% range and is testing the floor of support, which is important to Yields.  If this breaks, then Mortgage Rates can continue to improve off these current rates.

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Thursday, June 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose 3k from the previous week's numbers, going from 219k to 222k.  However, the previous week's numbers were revised higher by 1k (218k to 219k).  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning.  There was a more positive tone today, as President Trump indicated that there was no timetable on any further Tariffs with China, and a deal could happen.  Oil is rising a bit this morning on news that a few tankers were attacked at the Gulf of Oman.  Iran is suspected in these attacks, as there are growing tensions between US and Iran.  MBS is only Up 2bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates today.  Yields remain at 2.12%, as well.

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Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Priced Index rose only 0.1% in May, which it's YoY dropped from 2.0% to 1.8%.  The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose only 0.1%.  It's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 2.0%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, despite the lower Consumer Inflation data, as Investors continue to watch the drama between the US and China' Trade Talks.  President Trump recently tweeted that he's holding up the talks, and his sentiment is that the deal should be great for both US and China, otherwise, there's no sense in making an agreement.  This is souring the Markets a bit.  Also, there are Mass Protests in Hong Kong over recent laws that will allow China to extradite from Hong Kong to the mainland.  This isn't sitting well with the people of Hong Kong.  MBS is Up 9bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.12%.

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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NFIB Small Business, which measures the confidence among Small Businesses, rose from 103.5 in April to 105.0 in May.  Producer Priced Index, which measures inflation on the Wholesale sector, rose 0.1% in May.  However, it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 1.8%, further illustrating that inflation is still fairly tame.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as China plans a new Stimulus project aimed to re-build it's infracture within it's local municipalities and is issuing Bonds for this project.  MBS are Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are now at 2.15%.

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Monday, June 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are Up this morning after it was announced over the weekend that the US and Mexico reached an agreement over the migration issue, so the US will not impose sanctions.  Steven Mnuchin and PBC's Yi Gang had reportedly very candid and constructive talks while at the G20 meeting.  Reports came out of China that their Exports rose slightly and their imports dropped sharply.  MBS is Down 19bps, so Mortgage Rates rose slightly.  Yields rose to 2.14%.

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Friday, June 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nonfarm Payroll really disappointed in May, as only 75k new jobs were created.  Also, there were revisions from the previous 2 months, which were lowered by 75k combined.  Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%.  Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% in May.  Wholesale Inventories rose 0.8% in April.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as today's Bad News (in terms of disappointing Job Numbers) is feeling like Good News because the sentiment is the Fed will cut Interest Rates sooner than later (possibly this summer).  There's been some progress made on the talks with Mexico to help curb the influx of people trying to cross the US Borders.  Not sure if it's enough progress for President Trump to halt the Tariffs on Monday.  Not much has been changed between US and China.  The People's Bank of China was commented that they have enough tools to be able to stimulate their economy even during a Trade Spat with the US.  MBS is Up 17bps, so Mortgage Rates Improved today.  Yields continue their decline, as they reach 2.07%.

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Thursday, June 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rose this week from 215k from previous week to 218k.  These are still low numbers, which is why Investors shrugged off the ADP number yesterday.  They're anticipating approximately 190k new jobs for tomorrow's BLS' report.  Q1 Productivity was revised a bit lower, from 3.6% to 3.4%.  Unit Labor Costs (Q1) was revised further declines from -0.9% to -1.6%.  This can help keep inflation low.  Stocks have shifted into Negative Territory this morning, as the Market Sentiment became more risk aversed due to the Dovish Speak with Central Speakers and US' Trade Talks with Mexico and China.  The ECB held their rate at -0.4% and pledged to maintain that rate for 2019.  Earlier this week, US Fed Members also had a dovish tone to their speeches, which many are led to believe a rate hike will come.  President Trump is ready to add Tariffs to Mexico on Monday, as he stated the Talks haven't progressed enough to warrant a halt to the Tariffs.  Also, it is believed that the US will carry out the Tariffs on China's remaining $300 Billion Goods after G20 Meeting at the end of June (the 29th).  MBS is Up 5bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields are now at 2.10%.

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Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  ADP Employment number really missed it's mark in May.  It went from 271k new private jobs in April to only creating 27k in May.  This didn't weigh on the Market too much, as the ADP's number doesn't always translate to the same as the BLS'.  Most think the BLS' numbers on Friday will be around 190k due to the low Jobless Claims during May.  The Service Industry is still humming along.  We have 2 reports on this sector.  First is the Markit Services PMI, which remained Unchanged at 50.9 in May; the other is ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which rose from 55.5% to 56.9%.  Around 11:15am PST, the Fed will release it's Fed Beige Book, which will provide insight into the Micro Economics of the various Fed Regions across the US.  Stocks are continuing their rally today, as the Sentiment has changed.  Investors feel that the Fed may cut rates sometime in the near future to stimulate the economy that may be slowing due to the tariffs; along with optimism that reps from both China and US may ease the tensions from previous talks and resume those negotiations.  MBS is currently Unchanged from yesterday's closed, but MBS did drop further on the Equities rally yesterday, so some Lenders (pending when they released their pricing) may either provide worse pricing, or the same pricing, as yesterday's.  Those whom kept the same pricing, may have changed their pricing yesterday for the worse, so it kind of offsets itself.  Yields are currently at 2.11%.

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Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders dropped 0.8% in April.  Starting tomorrow, we'll look at the Job Numbers for May, which begin with the ADP numbers, then Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and BLS' Unemployment Rate and Jobs data.  Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's Negative Close.  Investors are watching the 4 biggest Tech Companies stave off tougher regulations, as the US Gov't aims to go after them with Anti Trust suits.  Some optimism developed, as reports out of China seem to indicate that they'd like to work out the differences by resuming talks.  Fed Members Bullard and Powell touch on the possibility of the Fed cutting rates as soon as this year.  Their 7/31 meeting has a 59% probability.  MBS is currently down 11bps.  We had a mid-day price improvement yesterday, but if you remove that price improvement yesterday, then our Mortgage Rates will remain Unchanged from the Morning's pricing.  Yields remain at 2.12%.

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Monday, June 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 6/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Overall Manufacturing dipped in May.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.6 to 50.5; whereas, ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 52.8% to 52.1%.  These are the lowest levels we've seen in approximately the past 20 months.  Construction Spending was revised from -0.9% to -1.7% in March; and April's numbers were almost identical to the revised numbers in March, so it was flat.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory.  NASDAQ is down because of the Anti Trust concerns with Google.  President Trump landed in London today.  Tariffs may go up again for Mexico within the next week to two, if there's no progress on the slowdown of illegal border crossings.  Also, China sent over their list of demands to the US, whom they blame for the break in talks, which include removing tariffs on some specific goods.  The tariff talk coupled with some of the lower macro economic data has led to a deeper Inverted Yield Curve, which concerns Investors, as this has been a precursor to past recessions.  MBS is Up 2bps, but Friday, it closed strong, which will lead to better pricing for Mortgage Rates today.  Yields continue their slide, per the concerns by investors with the deeper inverted Yield Curve, and are currently at 2.12%.

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Friday, May 31, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/31/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: A lot of Economic data to go over this morning from the Calendar.  We'll start off with Personal Income, which rose 0.5% in April; whereas Consumer Spending rose only 0.3% in April.  Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% in April, which it's YoY rose from 1.4% to 1.5%.  The Core PCE (also, known as Core Inflation) rose 0.2% in April, and rose from 1.5% to 1.6% YoY.  The Core PCE is the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.  It removes variables, food and energy, from the PCE, and provides a controlled number.  Manufacturing in Chicago region improved, as the Chicago PMI rose from 52.6 to 54.2 in May.  This was important, as we saw Manufacturing in Philadelphia and NY come to border of contraction.  Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from it's initial May reading of 102.4 to 100.00; however, it's still up from it's April reading of 97.2.  Stocks are in the Red this morning, as President Trump surprised the Markets with Tariffs on imports from Mexico.  This is in an effort to gain more support from the Mexican Gov't to address the illegal border crossing.  If it persists, then the US will continue raising Tariffs by 5% each subsequent month until it's at 25%.  As for China, there are reports that they are planning to releasing another retaliatory measure against the US, especially with their treatment toward Huawei and a few other Chinese companies, whom have been placed on the Entities list (essentially have been blacklisted).  It was reported that Manufacturing dropped again in China.  Mortgage Rates improved today, as the MBS is Up 9bps this morning; so, coupled with yesterday's higher number and today's, Lenders will show some improvement.  Yields continued to drop, as it's now down to 2.17%.  This is going to concern investors, as this will deepen the Inverted Yield Curve, which is a precursor sign toward a recession.

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Thursday, May 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims rose from 212k (this was revised slightly higher from 211k) to 215k (same as forecast).  Still very low amount of people filing for Unemployment.  Q1 GDP was revised slightly downward, from 3.2% to 3.1%.  Many economists were forecasting it to drop to 3.0%.  So far, it's been a great start to 2019.  We've had very poor Q1 in the past, as bad weather contributed to the past low numbers. Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as the rhetoric between the US and China's trade negotiations seemed to have subsided a bit for a day.  Investors were also concerned about the Inverted Curve deepening, as the Yields have been taking a bit of a beating since the China/US talks have broken off.  MBS is flat so far this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Unchanged.  Yields did climb back a bit from yesterday's low of 2.22% to 2.27%.

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Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing scheduled for the Economic Calendar today, but tomorrow will be much busier.  The Stock Market is in Negative Territory this morning on more news on the escalating tensions between US and China.  China is now reporting that they may restrict exports to the US on Rare Earth Minerals that are used for Micro Chips, Mobile Phones and other every day electronics.  This coupled with the data supporting a possible global economic slowdown, unresolved Brexit and tensions between the EC and Italy have Investors concerned.  MBS is Up 5bps, so it's not enough for any change to develop with pricing on Mortgage Rates.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  However, Yields have continued to slide and are now at 2.22%.

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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Case Shiller Home Price Index indicates that home prices continue to slow down, having a 3.9% annualized growth in February to 3.7% in March.  Consumer Confidence Index represents the overall satisfaction by the Consumer with the standing of the US Economy, as it continues to rise from 129.2 to 134.2 in May.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning, as they still watch for any news on China/US Trade discussion, and prepare for a long, drawn out Trade War developing.  There was an announcement of a Merger between Fiat Chrysler and Renault that would make them the 3rd largest Auto producer by production.  President Trump met with Japan's PM Shinzo over the weekend.  Also, Investors are concerned over Italy, as the anit-Euro sentiment continues to win more elections there.  MBS is Up only 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from last Friday.  Yields continue to slide, and have reached 2.29%.

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Friday, May 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders dropped 2.1% in April, and it's March's number was revised lower, from 2.6% to 1.7%.  The big drop was led by lack of Boeing orders (this is after the grounding of their 737 airplanes).  If you remove the Transportation, the Durable Goods would be flat.  The Core Capital Goods Orders dropped 0.9% in April, as the index reflects Business Investment.  This is the first drop in 4 months.  Stocks are trading Up this morning on cautious optimism based on a comment by President Trump that he may allow the standing of Huawei to be negotiated into a larger Trade pact with China.  Also, the PM Theresa May of the UK has announced that she will resign from her post in June, as she's had several failed attempts to garner the support on the terms of the UK's divorce from the EC.  They have until October 31st to come to terms.  MBS is down 3bps, so there's no change in Mortgage Rates.  Yields remain at 2.33%.

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Thursday, May 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped from 212k from previous week to 211k last week; another good sign for Jobs.  However, we show Manufacturing and Services Industry slowing down.  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash dropped from 52.6 in April to 50.6 in May; and Markit Services PMI flash dropped from 53.0 in April to 50.9 in May.  Both indexes are showing that both industries are on the verge of contracting (anything above 50 on these indices is expansion, and below is contraction).  Also, New Home Sales dropped in April.  They went from 723k annualized units in March to 673k in April.  Stocks are trading way Down today, as Investors are realizing the tensions between US and China are only escalating and both sides seem to be digging in for the long-haul.  Catch the video for more info, but this tension is becoming more Global, as more companies in other countries sever ties with Huawei in order to comply with US regulations.  Also, Markit Manufacturing out of Europe contracted further, as they're forced to cut staff (first since 2014).  MBS is Up 9bps, so coupled with yesterday's improved movement, Mortgage Rates have improved some today.  Meanwhile, Yields have dropped all the way down to 2.33%.

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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only item on the Economic Calendar today is the FOMC Minutes, which will be released at 11:15am PST.  Investors are eager to review the Minutes of the Feds' last meeting and look for clues on their thoughts on the economy, rate movement and US/China.  Stocks are Down, as they await the FOMC Minutes.  Also, both China and US appear to be readying themselves to dig in for the long haul, as tensions continue to escalate between the two.  MBS is UP 8bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently sitting at 2.40%.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Homes Sales slumped a bit in April, as they go from 5.21 million annualized units to 5.19 million.  Stocks are cautiously trading in Positive Territory, as the US placed a Temporary (90 days) Exception on US Businesses dealings with Huawei.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, which Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have crept up to 2.42% now.

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Monday, May 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic data to report from the Calendar today.  Stocks are being driven by the continued tensions between the US and China, as both parties agree they won't be meeting any time soon, as neither side is willing to negotiate further.  Also, US Companies are preparing to holdback on any business relationships with Hauwei, as they will be limited on what they may sell to them.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory.  MBS is down 2bps, but it's not enough to change pricing on Mortgage Rates, so they remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.39%.

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Friday, May 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment jumped up from 97.2 in April to 102.4 in May.  Leading Indicators are Up 0.2% in April.  Stocks are down on concerns that China won't come back to the negotiations based on all the previous events.  MBS is currently down 3bps, but it's not enough to have any movement with the Mortgage Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday.  Yields have come down to 2.40%.

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims improved last week, as only 212k applied for benefits (vs. 228k the previous week).  Housing Starts improved in April, as they rose from 1.168 million annualized units in March to 1.235 million in April.  Also, Building Permits, which are future Housing Starts, rose from 1.288 million in March to 1.296 million annualized units in April.  Manufacturing had a nice uptick in Philadelphia, as it did in NY area earlier this week, as it's Philly Fed Index indicated that it jumped up from 8.5 to 16.6 in May.  Stocks are really liking the Economic Data today, as the DOW up more than 200 so far, as they place the US/China tensions on hold for at least for a moment.  It appears that Huawei may have a more difficult to obtain any of their products from US companies, like their microchips, as the US is planning to add them to a list preventing any US Companies sell them any goods.   MBS is currently down 8bps, which is not enough movement to change pricing, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields rebounded up to 2.41%.

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Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: After a big month in March, Retail Sales declined by 0.2% in April; when you exclude Autos, then it declined by 0.1%.  The Empire State Index reported an improvement in Manufacturing in the NY region, as it went from 10.1 in April to 17.8 in May.  Industrial Production dropped 0.5% in April, which Capacity Utilization dropped from 78.5% to 77.9% in April.  Business Inventories remained still (0.0%) in March.  The NAHB Home Builders Index reports that Home Builders are more confident in May, as the index jumped from 63 to 66.  Stocks started the morning in Negative Territory, but has since moved into Positive Territory.  The negative number in Retail Sales, coupled with the Uncertainty with the US/China Negotiations, soured Investors earlier on.  Also, theres were a few poor economic data being reported out of China today too.  MBS is Up 9bps, so Mortgage Rates will Improved based on today's movement and yesterday's positive movement.  Yields have slid down to 3.37%.

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Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: NFIB Small Business Index rose from 101.8 to 103.5 in April, as Small Businesses gain a little more confidence in the economy and overall Market.  Stocks are rebounding a bit today, as yesterday was a sheer sell-off.  There appears to be a softening in the tone between the US and China, so Stocks are trading in Positive territory.  The threats have simmered a bit, and a bit more positive conversation dialogue was being presented.  MBS is Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates will remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields remain at 2.41%.

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Monday, May 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No economic data to report today.  The driving force behind the Markets is a continuation from last week's tension in Trade talks between US and China, which have become more heightened.  After US raised Tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, the Chinese did the same on $60 Billion US goods.  The US is threatening to tariff the remaining $325 Billion Chinese goods, if they continue to retaliate; whereas, China is coming back with other retaliation measures, such as dumping US Treasuries.  Obviously, that could disrupt the Markets tremendously, as China is one of the largest holders of US debt.  Stocks are taking a bloodbath, as the DOW is down more than 500 this morning.  MBS is Up 9bps, so couples with last week's gains, will lead Lenders to better pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields have slid down to 2.41%.

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Friday, May 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in April, as it's YoY increased from 1.9% to 2.0%.  When you remove the volatile and uncontrolled substance, as Food and Energy, then you have the Core CPI, which rose 0.1%; and it's YoY rose from 2.0% to 2.1%.  As have the week went, Stocks have been reacting on the news on the tensions surrounding the China/US Trade Talks.  The 25% Tariff on $200 Billion of Goods went into effect at 12:01am today.  However, there will be a slight grace period, as the goods in transit will still be under the 10% Tariffs.  It takes approximately 2 weeks for transits to cross the ocean.  Meanwhile, China has promised to retaliate.  President Trump has also brought up adding the 25% Tariffs on the remaining $325 Billion Goods that will typically come across, so it will be 25% across the board.  Negotiations were brief yesterday, so they're hoping to get back on track today.  There's not much movement with MBS, as they're only Up 2bps, so Lenders kept Mortgage Rates Unchanged.  Yields are up to 2.44% now.

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Thursday, May 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We finally have some Economic data to report today.  We'll start with the Weekly Jobless Claims, which 228k people applied for benefits last week.  The previous reporting had 230k, so we'll need to watch this index for continued trend or just a temporary movement.  Inflation in the Whoesale sector rose 0.2% in April, as the Producer Price Index.  Wholesale Inventories dropped 0.1% in March.  Stocks are way down again today, as the saga continues between the US and China on their Trade Negotiations.  This event has been dominating the Investors concerns this whole week.  China has sent their delegation to Washington today.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 9bps this morning.  But yesterday, we closed down 9bps, so this will bring Lenders to keep Mortgage Rates the same as yesterday's pricing.  Also, Yields have slid down to 2.43%.

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report from the Ecnonomic Calendar today.  Geo-Political News continue to dictate the Markets.  US and China Trade Negotiations continue it's saga, as it makes Investors very uneasy.  Also, reports have come out of China that Imports increased, but Exports dropped.  Iran announced that they make renege on some of the compliance in the Nuclear deal, as their economy struggles with US sanctions.  MBS is only Up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have dropped down to 2.45%.

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Tuesday, May 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Another day without any data to report on the Economic Calendar.  Today is more of the same, as the reports on the warnings from President Trump to China was confirmed, as they indicated that Tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese goods can rise from 10% to 25% with a Friday deadline on Negotiations.  There were concerns that China won't send their delegates to the US to continue with the Trade Talks, but was confirmed that they will attend on Thursday.  As a result, Stocks are way Down this morning.  However, they did rebound yesterday a bit from very low downs late in the day.  This confirmation may keep them down today.  MBS is currently Up 8bps this morning.  Due to the Markets improvement yesterday, which led MBS to finish -2bps, the Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged in their pricing today.  Yields have slid a little further down, to 2.47%.

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Monday, May 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a light week for economic data, which there's none to report today.  So, we're taking our direction today from Geo-Political news.  President Trump tweeted that he will raise the $200 Billion in Goods imported from 10% to 25% by Friday, if a deal is not completed.  These were the same warnings earlier in the year, but the US held off while the talks continued in good faith.  This surprised the Markets, as they felt the completions of negotiations were imminent.  Stocks are deep in the Red this Morning.  MBS is Up 6bps, but not enough for Lenders to change Mortgage Rates from Friday's pricing, so they remained Unchanged.  Yields have rescinded down to 2.49%.

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Friday, May 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their Job Numbers today.  The Nonfarm Payroll exceeded their forecast of 213k to 263k; and the Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.8% to 3.6% (lowest reading since 1969) for the month of April.  The Average Hourly Earnings continued it's trend of rising 0.2%, as it's YoY remained at 3.2%.  Markit Services PMI rose from 52.9 to 53.0 in April; as ISM Nonmanufacturing Index dropped from 56.1% to 55.5% for April.  Stocks are liking the Jobs data and trading in Positive Territory this morning.  MBS is currently Up 9bps.  Some Lenders may be inclined to improve their Mortgage Rate pricing.  The Market has mainly moved sideways, so if they do improve, the it will be very slightly; so, for the most part, Mortgage Rates are Unchanged.  Yields remain in the 2.52% range.

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Thursday, May 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims report that 230k people applying for Unemployment Benefits, same as previous week's number.  Q1 Productivity jumped Up 3.6%, while Q1 Unit Labor Costs dropped by 0.9%.  Factory Orders jumped Up 1.9% in March.  So overall, a very good news from the Economic Calendar.  However, the Stock Market started the morning off in Positive Territory, then shifted into Negative Territory.  Investors didn't care much for the Fed's announcement yesterday, calling Inflation transitory (as it's been under it's 2% target rate) and stating that the next rate movement may not be a rate cut.  Investors were hedging that there will be a 60% chance of a rate hike by end of the year; however, now it shifted to 49.9%.  There are reports that China and US are close to agreement and may announce it's conclusion by next week, as they continue to close the gaps.  MBS is currently down 8bps, so Mortgage Rates continue it's sideways pattern and remain Unchanged.  Yields climbed Up again, back to it's 2.52% range.

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Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 5/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: ADP is starting the jobs numbers for this week in the right direction, as they reported 275k new jobs in the private sector.  However, in the Manufacturing sector, we have 2 conflicting reports.  The Markit Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.4 to 52.6 in April; whereas, the ISM Manufacturing Index dropped from 55.3% to 52.8% in April.  Construction Spending dropped 0.9% in March.  Later today, around 11:15am PST, the Fed will wrap up their 2 day meeting and provide their announcement.  There is not expected to be any rate movement today.  However, the Investors will be listening for clues on possible rate movement in the future and their forecasts.  Stocks are trading modestly in Positive Territory this morning, ahead of the Fed Announcement.  Corporate Earnings Reports continue to sway the Markets.  MBS is currently Up 5bps, but not quite enough to move Mortgage Rates, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged this morning.  Yield have slide down to 2.48%.

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Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/30/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% again in Q1. Case Shiller HPI dropped from 4.2% YoY to 4.0% YoY in February in appreciation.  Manufacturing dropped in the Chicago region, as the Chicago PMI dropped from 58.7 in March to 52.6 in April.  Consumer Confidence rose from 124.2 to 129.2 in April.  Pending Home Sales rebounded in April, Up 3.8%.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, as more Corporate Earnings Reports are released.  A big one, Google, missed their Revenues for Q1, which is weighing on the Markets today.  FOMC begins their 2 day meetings today.  No rate hike is expected.  Reports on Factory Activity in China dropped; however, the index still show it in expanding territory.  The EU's GDP rebounded in Q1, as it jumped up from 0.9% to 1.5%.  MBS is Up 3bps, so not enough movement for Mortgage Rates to change, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are still in the 2.52% range today.

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Monday, April 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Personal Income rose only 0.1% for March, as expectations were +0.4%.  Howevery, Consumer Spending rose 0.9% in March, based on an 0.8% jump.  The Fed's favorite gauge for inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditure, or PCE) was released today.  PCE rose 0.2% in March, as it's YoY rose from 1.3% to 1.5%.  The Fed watches the Core PCE (also called Core Inflation), which had no movement (0.0%) for March, so it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.6%.  When you remove food and energy, then you have the core data, as those variables are uncontrolled and can vary quite abit.  It's below the Fed's target rate of 2.0% for Inflation.  Stocks are trending a little higher, as they are in record high territory and approaching the Fed's 2 day meeting, starting tomorrow.  More Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports will kick off the week, as only 46% have reported thus far.  US and China trade talks resume; however, the North American Trade Agreement appear to be in jeopardy, as Congress threatens to block it.  MBS is down 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields have increased to 2.53% again, adding pressure to MBS.

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Friday, April 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We got a glimpse of Q1 GDP today, which surprised the Markets.  After a lower revised 4th Qtr GDP of 2.2%, forecasts called for 2.3% in Q1, but it came in much HIGHER at 3.2%.  Also, Consumer Sentiment showed some improvement, rising from 96.9 in March to 97.2in April.  However, Stocks are trending into the Negative Trade this morning, as more Corporate Earnings and Forecasts are reported.  This is what is driving the Market currently.  As a result, MBS is Up 13bps, and Mortgage Rates Improved today.  Yields have slid down to 2.50% now.

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Thursday, April 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims had a big spike last week, as 230k people applied for Unemployment Benefits.  This is up from 193k the previous week.  This will be something we watch to determine, if we've hit the bottom and start rising, or this may be an anomaly.  Durable Goods rebounded nicely in March, rising 2.7% (without Transportation, it rose 0.4%).  This is a nice rebound after declining 1.1% in February.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory this morning, as they take their cue from Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports and Business Forecasts.  MBS is down 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's Rates.  Yields are still at 2.53%.

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Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/24/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no data to report today on the Economic Calendar, so we take our queu from Geo-Political events (China) and Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory, as many of the indices have reached their Peak, and the rest are very close to reaching it.  China and US will reconvene their meetings next week (the 30th).  Also, there are concerns that China may pull back on their current Stimulus, as they seem to be pleased with the Q1 results.  MBS is UP 11bps, so coupled with yesterday's positive trades, Mortgage Rates have Improved today.  Yields have slid to 2.53%.

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Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/23/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: New Home Sales jumped Up from 667k February to 692k in March.  We've seen a lot of declines in the Housing Market, so this Positive News is very welcomed.  Stocks are in Positive Territory, as Investors go thru Corporate Earnings and Forecasts, especially from some of the larger corporations in order to asses the state of the economy.  Meanwhile, MBS is Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields inched their way down to 2.57%.

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Monday, April 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There were a few reports released on Friday, even though the Markets were closed, so we'll provide that information:  Housing Starts dropped from 1.142 million in February to 1.139 million (annualized units) in March.  Also, Building Permits dropped from 1.291 million in February to 1.269 million in March.  Both had forecasts of increasing annualized units.  Today, we had Existing Home Sales released, which they too dropped from 5.51 million annualized units in February to 5.21 million in March.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, as Oil prices rise on news that the US will not renew waivers to countries importing oil from Iran.  Some of these countries include China and Turkey.  Also, reports out of China say that the Chinese Government are pleased with the results thus far on the results from the current Stimulus, and will focus now on Infrastructure, instead of more Stimulus, to the dismay of Investors.  MBS are down 9bps this morning, but not enoough to make any changes in Mortgage Rates.  Yields have climbed back up to 2.58%.

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Thursday, April 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims continue to drop, as they dropped from 197k to 192k last week.  Retail Sales rebounded, after dropping 0.2% in February, it jumped up 1.6% in March; and if you exclude Autos, then it jumped up 1.2%.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region dropped in April, as the Philly Fed went from 13.7 in March to 8.5 in April.  Markit Manufacturing PMI flash remained Unchanged in April at 52.4; whereas, the Services sector dropped from 55.3 to 52.9.  Business Inventories rose 03% in April.  Leading Indicators rose 0.4% in March.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is the only index in Positive Territory.  Europe released more negative economic news, as it's PMI for both Manufacturing and Services dropped.  Investors will watch, as the DOJ release the Mueller Report to Congress.  MBS is Up 13bps, so Lenders will price Mortgage Rates better today.  Yields have slid down to 2.55% now.  The Markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday/Passover, so there will be no report on Friday, the 19th.

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Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/17/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Wholesale Inventories rose 0.2% in February.  Later today, the Fed's Beige Book will be released.  This will provide us with a more Micro view of our economy, broken down into regions.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory based on Mixed Corporate Earnings Reports released today.  Also, China reported it's Q1 economy maintained it's 6.4% YoY growth, same as it's Q4 results.  MBS is Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as this whole week has been moving in side ways pattern.  Yields have risen to 2.59%.

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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/16/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Industrial Production dropped 0.1% in March, even though forecasts called for a rise of 0.1%.  On the same report, Capacity Utilization dropped from 79.0% to 78.8%, even though, it too, called for a rise on it's forecasts.  Home Builder's Confidence is slowly rising again, as it's Home Builder's Index rose from 62 to 63 in April.  Stocks are Up this morning on more good Q1 Corporate Earnings Reports.  MBS is down 5bps, but Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Adding to the pressure to MBS is the rising Yields, which are currently 2.58%.

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Monday, April 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing rebounded in the NY region, as the Empire State Index rose from 3.7 to 10.1 in April.  Stocks are trading in Negative Territory, as a few financial institutions provided their Q1 Earnings Reports and disappionted the Markets.  MBS is only up 2bps, so Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields are still applying pressure to MBS and are currently up to 2.56%.

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Friday, April 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Consumer Sentiment dropped from 98.4 to 96.9 on it's Index in April.  Stocks are Up this morning on strong Q1 Earnings Reports today by some of the nation's largest banks, which is indicating a continued robust economy.  Also, China is seeing positive effects from it's stimulus, as more credit applications rise.  MBS is currently down 11bps, that coupled with yesterday's losses, will lead Lenders to worsen Mortgage Rates today.  Yields have now jumped up to 2.55%, adding more pressure to MBS.

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***Sorry for not getting out my video yesterday.  The video was made, but I could not get it uploaded onto YouTube.  I'll try uploading yesterday's video again today.*****


Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/10/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Consumer Priced Index, an inflationary gauge for the consumer, rose 0.4% in March, which it's YoY rose from 1.5% to 1.9%; however, when you remove the food & energy (variables that cannot be controlled), you will receive the Core CPI, which only rose 0.1% in March, and it's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 2%.  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released, so Investors will review how the Fed views Inflation currently and it's projections.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as the DOW is lone index in Negative Territory.  Investors will be watching the EU Summit in hopes to see if the EU will be granting an extension, possibly a long-term one, to the UK for their upcoming departure.  Also, the ECB announced no changes to their interest rates or monetary policies.  MBS are Up 11bps, which Mortgage Rates are currently Unchanged; but, it's possible that it could Improve during the day, as the Yields have dropped to 2.47% -adding less pressure to MBS.

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Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/9/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business, which gauges the Small Business' Confidence, increased 0.1 in it's index, going from 101.7 to 101.8 in March.  Job Openings shrank in February, as they went from 7.6 million in January to 7.1 million.  Stocks are in Negative Territory, as the US threatened new Tariffs ($11 Billion) on EU products in retaliation to their subsidies to Airbus.  PM May is meeting with Chancellor Merkel and PM Macron regarding the possibility of a delay to Brexit.  The IMF has revised for the 3rd time this year a lower economic growth for world economy.  MBS is down 13bps, which Lenders will price Mortgage a little worse today.  Yields are around 2.50%.

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Monday, April 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The only item on the Economic Calendar is Factory Orders, which dropped 0.5% in February.  Data show Manufacturing still strong, but they're becoming more cautious.  Stocks are down today after a nice ride upwards last week.  There is a Brexit deadline this week (the 12th), but they're trying to postpone it further.  Meanwhile, we wait to hear from the US and China on a date for their 2 presidents to sign the final agreement.  MBS is only Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are still hanging in the 2.51% range.

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Friday, April 5, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/5/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the Big Jobs Day!  Nonfarm Payrolls came in higher than expectation (177k) and much higher than February's number, which was revised higher (to 33k).  It came in at 196k.  The Unemployment Rate remained at 3.8%.  However, Average Hourly Earnings only rose 0.1% in March.  It's YoY is still just over 3%, which Investors are happy because it's a happy medium between a strong economy and wage based inflation.  Stocks are in Positive Territory this morning, as a result of the Jobs data and continued optimism on an Trade Agreement between US and China.  MBS are Up 11bps, which coupled with yesterday's positive day, will lead to a little better pricing today, so Mortgage Rates are a little better today.  Yields have tempered a little, and have come down to 2.50%.

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Thursday, April 4, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/4/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Weekly Jobless Reports continue to drop, as they go from 212k people applying for Unemployment Benefits the prior week to 202k applying for the Benefits last week.  Tomorrow is the Jobs Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  Stocks are Mixed this morning, as the DOW is the only index in Positive Territory.  Investors continue to watch for any news on the US/China Trade Talks.  President Trump is due to meet the Vice Premier today, just after close of the Stock Market.  Some think that a Summit might be announced around then.  We'll have to see!  Still more to hammer out in negotiations.  MBS are Up 5bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields remain at 2.51%.

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Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/3/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today marks the first of 3 Job data this week, which we start with the ADP Employment Report.  It reported that there were 129k new jobs in the private sector.  Tomorrow will be the Weekly Jobless Claims, then Friday, will be the BLS' Jobs Report.  The Services Industry experienced a decline in March, as both the Markit Services PMI (came down from 56.0 to 55.3) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (down from 59.7% to 56.1%) dropped from February's data.  However, Stocks are Up this morning, taking the Global Lead, as reports surfaced that the US and China Trade Talks are about 90% completed.  The last 10% become a bit trickier, as each side will need to compromise.  Also, China had some positive economic data reported today, helping the Positive outlook today.  MBS are down 13bps, which will lead Lenders to worsen their Mortgage Rates a bit this morning.  Yields have climbed up to 2.51% now.

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Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/2/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: It's a fairly quiet day today, after Stocks held a pretty good rally yesterday.  Durable Goods Orders is the only item on the Economic Calendar today.  January's numbers were revised from being up 0.3% to being up 0.1%.  It dropped 1.6% in February, as forecasts showed a drop of 2.1%.  Transportation is the main dragging it down.  If you remove it, then it's up 0.1%.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory currently, with NASDAQ the only index in Positive Territory.  MBS is Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Some Lenders did a reprice yesterday for the worse, so rates worsened a bit; as today's pricing would correlate after yesterday's re-pricing.  Yields remain at 2.49%.

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Monday, April 1, 2019

Daily Market Report 4/1/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Jobs data will be the big news this week, but today, we have: Retail Sales, which declined by 0.2% in February; and declined by 0.4% without Autos.  Manufacturing is a bit Mixed today, as the Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped from 53 to 52.4 in March; while ISM Manufacturing Index increased from 54.2% to 55.3%.  Construction Spending rose 1% in February.  Business Inventories rose 0.8% in January.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory, as Manufacturing in China improved after 4 months of contraction.  However, the news wasn't as good in the EU, as it continued to contract.  Talks resume in Washington between the US and China this week.  Reports from both parties indicate talks progressing nicely.  MBS is down 22bps, which translates to a little higher Mortgage Rates today; as, Investors move their funds from safe havens, like Bonds/MBS, to more risky investments, such as equities/stocks.  Yields have jumped up to 2.49%.  Much higher than last week!

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Friday, March 29, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/29/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There's a bit of data to report today.  We're still getting delayed data because of the Gov't Shutdown.  We'll start with Personal Income, which rose only 0.2% in February (forecasts called for 0.3% increase).  Consumer Spending rose only 0.1% in January (forecasts called for 0.2% increase).  Core Inflation rose only 0.1% in January, as it's YoY dropped from 2% to 1.8% -below the Fed's target rate of 2%.  New Home Sales beat expectations of 625k for February, and came in at 667k annualized units.  Manufacturing simmered a bit in Chicago region in March, as the Chicago PMI dropped from 64.7 to 58.7.  Consumer Sentiment rose from 97.8 to 98.4 in March.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory on the mostly positive data and the news of continued progress between the US and China's Trade Talks.  They will continue their talks next week in the US.  MBS is down 8bps, so coupled with yesterday's down day, Mortgage Rates will be slightly worse today.  Yields have steadily climbed up to 2.42%.

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Thursday, March 28, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/28/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims dropped a little further last week, which only 211k applied for Unemployment.  Last week, it was reported at 216k, and forecasts for today's report called for 222k.  The final revision for the GDP for Q4 in 2018 was revised lower, from 2.6% to 2.2%.  Indicating the economy is slowing down a bit.  Pending Home Sales dropped 1.0% from January to February, as the Midwest dealt with severe cold and snowstorms.  Stocks are trading in Positvie Territory this morning.  So far, there's no clear indication to which path Brexit will go.  Also, more progress has been made on the US and China Trade Talks.  MBS are Unchanged from yesterday, so Mortgage Rates will also be Unchanged.  Yields rose a little to 2.39%.

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Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/27/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Nothing to report on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks are modestly Up this morning.  Investors continue to monitor the Brexit news, as we approach the new deadline in about 2 weeks.  Also, adding fuel is the dropping Yields, which the 3 month inverted on the 10 year.  We're coming closer between the 2 year and 10 year.  When the Yields invert, then it's a sign of a recession ahead (approximately 18-24 months).  This on top of the Brexit, is starting to cause a flight to safety, so more funds are funneling from Equities (stocks) and into Bonds/MBS.  MBS is now Up 13bps this morning, so Mortgage Rates will improve today.  Yields are now down to 2.38%.

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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/26/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few data to report today on the Economic Calendar.  The Housing Starts dropped from 1.273 million annualized units to 1.162 million annualized units in February.  Also, Building Permits dropped from 1.317 million annualized units to 1.296 million annualized units in February.  This is the Home Builder's response to lower prospective Buyer traffic and a slowing economy.  The Case-Shiller Home Price Index dropped from 4.6% to 4.3% in January; showing that home prices continue to rise, but at a much slower pace than we've experienced in the past few years.  Consumer Confidence dropped, as well, in March, as it dropped from 131.4 to 124.1.  This is indicative of what the Consumer has been experiencing over the past few months, with a volatile stock market, partial gov't shutdown and lower Jobs numbers.  Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's losses and well into Positive Territory.  Top news for Stocks lies with the Brexit, continued negotiations between US/China and a few Fed Members will be speaking today.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  Yields are currently at 2.43%.

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Monday, March 25, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/25/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: No data to report on the Economic Calendar to report today, but the rest of the week there will be something to report.  Stocks started the morning in the Red; as globally, it was mostly in the Red.  DOW and S&P have just recently breached to a Positive stance.  We'll see if it holds.  There are several Fed Speakers out today, which could have an effect on the Market.  The Mueller Report was released exonerating the President from any collusion charges.  MBS is currently Up 3bps, so Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from Friday's close.  Yields are now down to 2.42%.

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Friday, March 22, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/22/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Manufacturing flash PMI dipped from 53 to 52.5 in March.  It's counter-part, Markit Services flash PMI also dipped from 56 to 54.8 in March.  Existing Home Sales had a nice boost in February, as it jumped up to 5.51 million annualized units, compared to 4.93 million annualized units in January.  Wholesale Inventories rose 1.2% in January.  Stocks are in Negative Territory on poor economic data out of Europe, as it reminds Investors that the economy is slowing.  Also, President Trump was interviewed this morning on one of the news channels and reiterated that an Agreement is close with China and may continue to keep Tariffs in place for an extended period, even after Agreement is reached to ensure compliance by China.  MBS is currently Up 20bps, which Mortgage Rates improve.  Yields have slid down to 2.45%.

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Thursday, March 21, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/21/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Weekly Jobless Claims rebounded a bit from last week's numbers, going from 230k to 221k.  Obviously, this is data we're watching to see if it continues to rise, as it will indicate a recession in the near future.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region rebounded quite nicely in March, as it came back from -4.1 to +13.7.  Also, Leading Indicators picked up 0.2% in February, which indicates economy improving.  Stocks are Up on the Fed's very dovish announcement yesterday, as they indicated there will not be any rate hikes in 2019 and the Balance Sheet reduction will end in September.  Also, they see the economy slowing, as well as, inflation.  President Trump tweeted that he may keep the Tariffs in place even after an Agreement has been made with China.  This might be fuel to the fire with negotiations.  It was reported that more meetings have been scheduled between the Upper level Negotiators in the coming weeks.  MBS is Unchanged after yesterday's Rally, which led Lenders to re-price during the day for better Mortgage Rates.  Yields have really slipped.  It was reported earlier this week that Yields were as high as 2.62%, which they're now at 2.52%.

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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/20/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Fed wraps up their 2 day meeting today, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give his announcement around 11:15 am PST.  Today's announement is expected to go similar to it's previous announcement; and Investors will seek clues on the Fed's forecasts and Balance Sheet unwind.  Stocks are Down this morning ahead of this announcement.  The US and China Trade Talks continue, as there was a report that China was pushing back on some of the US Demands.  We're at the nitty gritty aspects of the final details, so these objections will be commonplace at this stage of negotiations.  It's just a matter of time when they both have a final agreement.  MBS is Up 8bps, but not enough to make any changes with the Mortgage Rates, as they remain Unchanged.  Yields have slipped a little to 2.60%.

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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/19/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Factory Orders were up only 0.1% in January, off from it's forecast of 0.4%, and stronger hints of a slowing economy.  Stocks are Up this morning, as the Fed begins it's 2 day meeting today.  Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell will give his announcement.  It's expected to be very similar to January's announcement.  MBS is Unchanged from yesterday, so Mortgage Rates are also Unchanged.  Yields have risen a little bit to 2.62% now.

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Monday, March 18, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/18/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Home Builders Index, which gauges the confidence level with Home Builders, remained Unchanged from previous month in March.  Stocks are trading in Positive Territory this morning, as Investors keep an eye on the Main Headlines over the past week: Federal Authorities investigating the Boeing 737 Max planes; reports have US/China Summit possibly being bumped to June now; and the FOMC will begin it's 2 day meeting tomorrow, as Fed Chief Powell gives his announcement on Wednesday.  MBS is currently down 3bps, so Mortgage Rate remain Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields have climbed Up to 2.60%.

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Friday, March 15, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/15/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Manufacturing seems to be weakening, as we have 3 data points to view today.  Starting with the Empire State Index (Manufacturing in the NY region) dropped from 8.8 to 3.7 in March, as most forecasts had it rising to approximately 10.  Industrial Production rose only 0.1% in February, as most forecasts called for 0.4% increase.  The Capacity Utilization dropped from 78.3% to 78.2% in February.  Again, forecasts called for a higher number (78.5%).  However, some better news, is Job Openings increased in January from 7.5 million to 7.6 million.  Also, Consumer Sentiment rose from 93.8 to 97.8 in March.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory (DOW is lone index in Negative Territory) based on Economic Data and comments from Chinese and US Officials over the Trade Talk.  MBS is Up 13bps, which will provide Mortgage Rates a little boost in pricing today.  Yields have fallen a bit this morning, as they are now down to 2.58%.

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Thursday, March 14, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/14/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Initial Jobless Claims rose 6k from last week's number to 229k.  New Home Sales came in at 607k annualized units for the month of January.  Stocks are in Negative Territory on Geo-Political News, as more disappointing industrial output data comes out of China.  Also, there seems to be a delay in the US/China Trade Talks, which have Investors a bit nervous.  There is another Brexit vote today, which will be upon whether they delay the exit on the 29th or continue as on without a Trade Agreement with the EU.  MBS is Unchanged from yesterday, as Mortgage Rates remain the same.  Yields have come up to 2.62%.

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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/13/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few items on the Economic Calendar today.  We'll start with the Durable Goods Orders for January, which rose 0.4% on forecasts of it dropping 0.1%.  The Core Capital Goods Orders broke it's pattern of declines over the past few months and rose 0.8% in January.  This index gauges Businesses reinvesting in their own business.  PPI rose only 0.1% in February.  This is the inflation data from the Wholesale sector.  Construction Spending rose 1.3% in January.  Stocks are trading in positive territory this morning on the economic data, as they watch the Geo-Political news on the Brexit and Boeing scenario.  MBS is down 3bps so far this morning, but based on the late rally in the Market yesterday, Lenders will be more inclined to provide better pricing on their Mortgage Rates this morning.  Yields have continued their decline, and currently sit at 2.61%.

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Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/12/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Confidence with Small Business Owners gained some strength in February, as the NFIB Small Business Index climbed from 101.2 to 101.7.  Consumer Inflation dropped a smidge in February.  Consumer Price Index went up 0.2%, while it's YoY dropped from 1.6% to 1.5%.  When you remove food and energy, then you have the Core CPI, which is what the Fed reviews more closely.  The Core CPI rose only 0.1% in February, and it's YoY dropped from 2.2% to 2.1%.  Stocks are Up again this morning, as the DOW again is still being weighed lower due to Boeings' stock loss.  There is a Brexit Vote tonite by the UK Parliament after PM Theresa May gained some concessions from the EU.  Of course the Markets will be watching this very closely, as we are approaching the finish line for their March 29 deadline.  MBS is Up only 0.2%, as Mortgage Rates continue to remain Unchanged.  Yields have slid a bit further to 2.63%.

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Monday, March 11, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/11/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Retail Sales rebounded a bit in January, moving up 0.2%.  Retail Sales, which excludes Autos, enjoyed more improvement, which went up 0.9%.  These improvements were much needed after a very dismal December, which was the worst data in the last 10 years.  Business Inventories rose 0.6% in December.  Stocks are Up this morning on the data, even though the DOW is being weighed down abit by it's biggest component recipient, Boeing, after another Max 8 crashed in Ethiopa (2nd in past 6 months).  Our thoughts and prayers goes out those families affected by the crash.  MBS is down only  3bps so far this morning, so Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from Friday's pricing.  Yields are holding in the 2.64% range currently.

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Friday, March 8, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/8/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Today is the BIG Day for Jobs Data!  The Non-Farm Payroll surprised everyone with 20k new Jobs in February, whereas they were expecting it around 175k.  A closer look at this report shows that the weakness came from the  Hospitality and Construction Sectors, which can be heavily influenced by weather.  If you remember correctly, we had some pretty extreme cold weather in February (even MN had -65 degrees at one point).  So, this could be an anomaly, which we'll continue to monitor.  Also, keep in mind we had a HUGE spike in January, whereas the Jobs came in at 311k, when we were expecting around 175k.  We're still at a good point in Jobs, as we see the Unemployment Rate drop from 4% in January to 3.8% in February.  Also, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% in February, which is the highest increase since 2009.  Housing Starts beat expectations in January at 1.230 million annualized units; which is the same for Building Permits (future Housing Starts), as it beat expectations to 1.345 annualized units.  Stocks are down on the disappointing Jobs data, but also on news that China's exports dropped 20% in February.  This is along the line of signs pointing toward a Global Economic Slowdown.  MBS is near unchanged (-2bps), but had a late rally yesterday (closing Up 19bps), so most Lenders may price their Mortgage Rates better today.  Yields are near Unchanged, but slightly up by means of rounding up to 2.75% (vs rounding down to 2.64% at yesterday's close).

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Thursday, March 7, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/7/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Big Jobs Data will be released tomorrow, but today, we have the Weekly Jobless Claims.  The Weekly Jobless Claims improved a little bit, going from 226k the previous week to 223k last week.  Forecasts called for 225k.  Productivity for the 4th Qtr also, improved slightly.  It's 3rd Qtr was up 1.8%, while 4th Qtr grew at 1.9%.  Unit Labor Costs also grew at 2.0%, up from from the 1.6% in the 3rd Qtr.  Stocks are down as news of the ECB reducing their 2019 forecasts for the EC from 1.7% to 1.1% and trying their own stimulus for the EC.  This is a day after the Fed Beige Book showed some slower growth in the US yesterday.  MBS is currently Up 9bps, which based on yesterday's Market improvement and today's, then some Lenders may price Mortgage Rates a bit better today.  Yields have continued their slide, all the way down to 2.65% now.

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Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Daily Market Report 3/6/19

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP, the first of the Jobs data this week, came in a little lower than forecasts for February.  It came in at 183k new jobs in the Private Sector, while forecasts called for 187,500.  Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released.  Stocks are down, as they're awaiting some catalyst to move it in one direction or another.  There will be a few Fed Members speaking today.  MBS is currently Up 2bps.  Based on yesterday's rally, some Lenders may price their Mortgage Rates a bit better today; at worst, they're Unchanged.  Yields had slid down to 2.70%.

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