Daily Market Report 3/31/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Case Shiller National HPI rose from 3.7% in December to 3.9% in January.  Manufacturing dipped a little further in contraction for the Chicago region, as the Chicago PMI went from 49.0 to 47.8 (below 50 is considered contraction); however, this was better than most of the estimates, which ranged from 35 to 40.  The Consumer Confidence remained relatively high, considering the current circumstances, as it came in at 120.0.  Stocks are Up this morning on the Manufacturing data and China's Manufacturing and Services data; however, some speculate their numbers to be too good to be true, as they jumped from approximately 30 to 51.5 MoM, and they're not at full optimum capacity, as prior to the pandemic.  Needless to say, the were impressed with the progress.  MBS closed down 66bps yesterday, and is currently Down 14bps today.  The Fed had scheduled to purchase approximately $40 billion of MBS yesterday, but only purchased about $20 billion.  Last week, MBS was propped up by the Fed, as they averaged around $40 billion daily purchases.  We think they're just trying to do enough, at this point, to keep MBS afloat and not disrupt the Lending process.  This is good because the sooner the Lenders can clear thru their pipeline, then they can reallocate funds to pricing new loans at "true" Market rates and hopefully bring back some of the Non QM and Jumbo loans.  Yields are not sitting at 0.69%.

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Daily Market Report 3/30/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Pending Home Sales slowed in February, as it's MoM dropped from 5.3% to 2.4%.  This number will most likely continue to decline as we all experienced a major and quick shift in the Market over the coronavirus.  Stock Market is Up today.  The coronavirus is having a major impact and we're seeing a very large amount of infected and deaths from it.  MBS is Up 44bps, but has been shrinking a bit as I've been putting this report together for you and trying to remain above the ceiling of resistance.  MBS is being propped up from the Fed's daily purchases (QE), which they're trying to help the Market, but it's inadvertently hurting Lenders in the process because of their Margin calls.  We're still not seeing pricing that correlates with the MBS Market, and many loan programs (like Jumbos and Non QM) have dried up; and the Government loans (FHA, VA and USDA) have tougher restrictions (like higher minimum fico scores and lower Debt-to-income ratios).  This will be worked thru, but it's going to take some time to get this sorted.  Meanwhile, Yields have fallen some more, down to 0.60%.

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Daily Market Report 3/27/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: We have a few economic data to review today, which we'll start with the Personal Income, which rose 0.6% in February; along with Consumer Spending, which rose 0.2% in February.  The Fed's favorite gauge for Inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditure, actually the Core PCE (without food or energy, as they're uncontrolled variables).  The PCE rose 0.1% MoM, and it's YoY remained Unchanged at 1.8%.  The Core PCE rose 0.2% MoM, and it's YoY rose from 1.7% to 1.8%.  This is still under the Fed's target rate of 2.0% and most likely will dip in the coming months, as there's no inflationary pressure currently.  Lastly, the Consumer Sentiment dropped (expected) from it's earlier report of 95.9 to 89.1.  Stocks are deep in the Red this morning, as Investors are worried that the US coronavirus cases may have exceeded China's.  The Stimulus Package is currently with the House for their Vote today.  Pelosi is confident it will pass, as there have been some rumblings from some in the party that they may block it.  Fingers crossed that it moves along.  MBS is currently Up 77bps, which would technically help Mortgage Rates; but instead, it's exacerbating an issue with Lenders on Margin calls.  This is being done inadvertently by the Fed, as they continue to purchase MBS and Treasuries.  It would normally help us, but this is not good timing for the Lenders to handle this.  Meanwhile, Yields have fallen down to .74% now.

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Daily Market Report 3/26/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Initial Jobless Claims for last week exceeded it's estimate of 2.5 million, which it came in at 3.283 million.  The previous record was 695k in 1982; and the highest it reached during the past Credit Crisis, a decade ago, was 655k; so, you can see how much of an impact this pandemic has made on our economy compared to previous economic crisis.  The 4th Quarter GDP remained unchanged, as it's final number remains at 2.1%.  Stocks are Up this morning, after being in Negative Territory, as the Senate passed the Stimulus package.  Next it will go to the House on Friday; and if it passes there, then onto the President to be signed this weekend.  MBS has had some large swings this morning, as it's figuring which direction to move.  It's currently Up 27bps.  Because of the large swings this moring, it will be difficult to determine Mortgage Rates.  I plan to work on a video going over what's happening in the Mortgage Industry, as many people are being affected, and I see lots of misinformation being stated by the Media and others.  There are lots of reports of Mortgage Rates dramatically dropping, but Lenders offering these much lower rates that is being reported.  I want to explain why and what to expect, so stay tuned.  Yields have dropped to 0.80%.

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Daily Market Report 3/25/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Durable Goods Orders increased 1.2% in February; but if you exclude Transportation, then it contracted by 0.6%.  The FHFA Home Price Index, which measures home appreciation on homes with conforming loans rose 0.3% MoM in January, and it's YoY was 5.2%.  Stocks are Up on possible news that there was an agreement made on a Stimulus Package that is expected to be announced today.  MBS was up 36bps in earlier trading, but then turned negative (down 20bps) and is currently Down 8bps.  Lenders whom priced in the Market earlier will change their pricing for the worse; and pricing may be around the same as where we closed yesterday.  Pricing is still very difficult to navigate, as we're treading very uncertain times (watch video for updates on the Loan Programs and Market).  Lenders are not pricing their Rates according to the Markets, as they're facing Margin Calls, Huge Influx of loans to underwrite, Risk of Default and even Liquidity issues.  Yields started higher, but have now moved to Unchanged at 0.81%.

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Daily Market Report 3/24/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Markit PMI flash released their 2 reports (Manufacturing and Service) today.  Both dropped MoM in March, as Manufacturing dropped from 50.7 to 49.2; and Services dropped from 49.4 to 39.1, which is the lowest level on record.  Anything below 50 is considered contraction.  New Home Sales had a large revision for January, as it was increased from764k annualized units to 800k.  February shows a drop from the revised level to 765k.  Stocks are Up this morning on Optimism, as there are hopes of a Coronavirus Stimulus Package may be passed thru Congress, after the Democrats blocked the previous Package.  MBS is Up 66bps so far this morning, as the Fed continues it's QE Purchases every day this week.  It closed down from it's high yesterday, but still Up 84bps; as a result, there was a price change for the worse.  Today's pricing for Mortgage Rates are better than yesterday's close, but similar to what we saw during our high's yesterday.  Yields are up a bit and just under .84% currently.

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Daily Market Report 3/23/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There is no data to report on the Economic Calendar today.  There's really only one report this week that will be relevant due to the sudden impact of the coronavirus, and that is the Initial Jobless Claims this Thursday.  Meanwhile, Stocks are Down this morning on the lack of assistance from Congress.  The Fed came out and stated the will do whatever it takes to smooth out the economy.  The started out today with an infinite amount of QE, which they'll be purchasing a large amount of Treasury and MBS every day this week.  It's helping the MBS Market today, as it's Up 120bps; however, we're still not seeing all of these improvements in our pricing, as Lenders are (for the past few weeks) pricing it higher to slow the process down because of the sudden amount of files that were submitted in the beginning of the month; also, of late, their assessing their risk tolerance due to concerns of repayment of the loans.  Yields are Down to .77%.       *****If you're working with Non-Conventional or Government Loan Programs, then be cautious!  After recording this video, one of our Non-QM Lenders told me their Suspending all business for the next 2 weeks, then reassess the Market and adjust their guidelines and pricing thereafter.********

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Daily Market Report 3/20/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Existing Home Sales jumped Up in February, going from 5.42 million annualized units in January to 5.77 million in February.  Because the Market has dramatically shifted from then, we can almost disregard this data.  Stocks started the Day in Positive Territory, which it was beginning to slow down in to Negative Territory, as I was preparing this report.  There is talk of a Stimulus package that will send funds out to people, but nothing has been finalized.  Goldman Sachs released a horrifying report that we should expect approximately 2.5 million initial jobless claims as soon as next week.  Just last week, it spiked to 281k; and the highest we saw around the Credit Crisis was around 600k.  If this comes true, then it would dramatically dwarf the events of the Credit Crisis, as we're seeing swings in the Market that are more severe.  Many states are telling their people to remain home, unless there is essential business.  MBS is going thru some of it's worst cycles, and is ever changing by the minute.  We're currently down 62bps; and Yields are down to .94%.  There's so much going on that very difficult to keep up.  You'll get more info, if you watch the video, so be sure to watch it!

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Daily Market Report 3/19/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims had a 70k spike in first time unemployment applicants last week, as it hit 281k.  Manufacturing in the Philadelphia completely fell off in March, as it went from a very nice February of 36.7 to -12.7 in March, which is in contraction.  Stocks were Up for a bit this morning on some recent moves by the Fed (such as setting up a temporary dollar swap with other central banks to meet the global demands for the dollar and a facility to assist money market funds to meet the demands of investors request to redeem their mutual funds.  However, they soured and have begun to dig themselves back into the Red.  MBS is also having major swings, as it was down 25bps this morning, then swung high to just over 100bps and now is sitting Up 41bps.  Because of these constant and big swings, it's really difficult to project where a Lender is pricing, as they try to maintain the pricing; as a result, it's been difficult for Loan Officers to lock rates because of the constant price changes throughout the day.  Yields are currently sitting just above it's floor of support at 1.09%.

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Daily Market Report 3/18/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts dropped a bit in February, going from 1.624 million annualized units in January to 1.599 million.  Also, Building Permits, which is our outlook for Housing Starts, dropped in February, going from 1.550 million in January to 1.464 million.  Stocks are way down today (DOW was down approximately 1500), as Investors have concerns on how long of an impact the coronavirus will have on the global economy and it's effects on small businesses.  It's expected that the US Gov't will roll out a Stimulus package to help both businesses and consumers during this crisis, which may lead up to $1.3 Trillion in new debt.  This is having a large impact on MBS and Treasuries, as Treasuries surge to 1.13% due to the sudden increase in debt, while demand to purchase it is not there.  MBS has dropped 89bps and is testing it's 25 DMA again.  As you may have guessed, Mortgage Rates have dramatically jumped up again!

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Daily Market Report 3/17/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Happy St. Patrick's Day!  Today, we have Retail Sales, which dropped 0.5% in February; and when you remove Autos, then it dropped 0.4%.  However, Industrial Production rose 0.6% in February.  Capacity Utilization rose from 76.8% to 77.0% in February.  Home Builders are feeling a little less confident in March, as the NAHB Home Builder's Index went from 74 in February to 72 in March.  Business Inventories dropped 0.1% in January.  Stocks are trying to rebound after the worst trading day since October 1987, as the DOW dropped 3k.  Right now, it's Up about a 100.  The coronavirus is having a major impact on the US and Global Economy, as it's coming to a complete shutdown in order to contain the spread; and there are warnings that this might even last deep into summer.  At this point, a recession is a matter of when, not if.  MBS is currently up 6bps, after starting in negative territory.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged.  There's still a bit of capacity issue with Lenders.  I'm seeing some positive movements, but we're not quite there yet.  Yields have worked their way up to .77%.

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Daily Market Report 3/16/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The manufacturing sector in the NY region dropped dramatically, as the Empire State Index dropped 21.5% in March, which may be signs that the coronavirus is beginning to make it's way into the US economy.  Stocks are WAY Down today, even having another 15 minute pause due to the sell-off.  The Fed held an Emergency Meeting yesterday, in lieu of it's FOMC this week, and cut the Fed Funds Rate to near 0% and will roll-out another QE of $700 Billion to help with Liquidity concerns.  Please not that the Fed Funds Rate is NOT the same as Mortgage Rates, as I've been seeing a lot of confusion from lots of different places.  MBS was Up 200bps earlier, but is currently Up 123bps (down from earlier highs).  This would technically  improve Mortgage Rates, but I'm still seeing many Lenders artificially keeping rates high due to their capacity issues.  Yields are Down to .84% now.

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Daily Market Report 3/13/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Import Price Index dropped 0.5% in February.  The Consumer Sentiment remained Unchanged at 101 in March.  Stocks are working their way back into Positive Territory after it's worst day on the Market since 1987.  The DOW was up nearly 1000 points, but is currently sitting around 300.  There might be a Stimulus package that may be announced soon -The White House and Congress are working together on a plan.  The Fed stepped in yesterday to pump more liquidity back into the Markets.  MBS started the Morning lower and were up higher, but have been fluctuating between positive and negative territory.  It's currently Up 5bps, so I'd say that Mortgage Rates are Unchanged from yesterday's close.  If we can get the MBS to close in positive territory, then that may be a sign they're ready to climb their way back up.  Yields are currently at .86%.

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Daily Market Report 3/12/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Initial Jobless Claims report dropped by 4k, from previous week, to 211k people applying for unemployent benefits for the first time.  The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation with the Wholesale sector, dropped 0.6% in February, which it's YoY dropped from 2.1% to 1.3%.  When you remove food and energy from the equation, the you have the Core PPI, which dropped by 0.3% in February; and it's YoY dropped from 1.7% to 1.4%.  Stocks were halted again this morning due to panic selling, which the DOW has now officially entered the Bear Territory, and the others will most likely follow suit today, which we'll find out after close.  The panic over the coronavirus has now led to flights being cancelled from Europe for the month of March; NBA cancelling it's season until further notice; to other sports events playing with no audience in the stadiums and other events with large gatherings being cancelled.  A few famous people are now claiming to having been infected with the coronavirus.  Governments and Central Banks around the world are trying to put together packages to assist it's people and businesses.  Needless to say, these times are unprecedented!  MBS started the morning a little higher, but since has dropped and is testing the 25 DMA.  It is Down about 30bps, so again Mortgage Rates continue to rise.  Yields are sinking today too, as they are now residing around .67%.

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Daily Market Report 3/11/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in February, however, it's YoY dropped from 2.5% to 2.3%.  It's Core, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%; and it's YoY rose from 2.3% to 2.4%.  Based on how the economy is beginning to shape up, inflation will drop, so this will be less of a concern for the Fed.  Stocks are losing their gains from yesterday's trade this morning, after the DOW closed Up 1100 yesterday and is currently Down about 1000.  Many countries across the globe are announcing interest rate cuts along with possible stimulus measures presented by their gov't.  MBS started in positive territory this morning, by as much as 20bps, however, that has dissolved and dropped dramatically.  At the time of creating this report, it was Down 47bps, and even dropped 66bps.  The Good News is the Trend Line is currently holding, which means that the trend for MBS is to continue rising.  Right now, we're just touching/testing the bottom of the Trend Line.  The previous high spikes that we saw earlier, were too fast and too much, so we got a whipsaw effect.  Stay patient, as it will sort itself out!  Yields are currently sitting around .78%.  There will be a 10 Year Treasury Auction later today, which can help Mortgage Rates, so stay tuned!

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Daily Market Report 3/10/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The NFIB Small Business Index, which measures the confidence level with Small Businesses, rose from 104.3 to 104.5 in February.  This, like many other data that will be reported can almost be disregarded, as we've entered a new catalyst to our economy, which this data being reported is unaffected.  We won't really know the impact until we see this month's data being reported next month, as we're in the infantile stages of being affected of the coronavirus.  Stocks took it's worst single day beatdown yesterday since 2008 (during the height of the Credit Crisis Meltdown); and this morning, it appeared to regain some of those losses, only to lose it all and go into the Red.  MBS lost it's huge gains yesterday to close Unchanged, causing a few price changes for the worse.  Right now, it's Down 14bps, so Mortgage Rates are down a bit further.  This could potentially change, if Investors allocated their investments into MBS as a flight to safety, which will boos the MBS and improve pricing for Mortgage Rates.  Yields closed the gap that was created yesterday and were trying to claw it's way back up above the new ceiling of resistance, only to be turned back down and currently sit at .60%.  As I've mentioned, due to the overwhelming volume, you may find Lenders pricing higher rates, as they're trying to work their way thru the massive amount of business that is now being bottle-necked in the process.  My advice is to be patient and be prepared for a bit of a bumpy road, as the current environment is a bit chaotic.  Catch you on tomorrow's video!

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Daily Market Report 3/9/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no economic reports today.  Stocks have completely nosedived this morning, even hitting a 15 minute halt in trading due to the drop of 7% in the DOW.  It was down over 2k this morning, and is currently down about 1500 currently.  This is on more news of the coronavirus spreading, and news of a possible Oil War between Russia and OPEC.  Instead of pulling back on the oil production, then they're going to raise production and cut prices (which are around $30/barrel now).  This has really helped the Mortgage Rates, as they were Up around 80bps during early trade, but has since pulled back and are currently Up around 49bps.  They're up above it's previous ceiling and touched on a new ceiling.  Yields have dramatically fallen, and even touched down around .41%, but are now currently around .53%.  They too broke below it's floor, which is now a ceiling.  There was a large gap to open it's trading, so don't be surprised if there's some pullback.  Now, technically (by what the Markets are showing) Mortgage Rates should be Better, but we're seeing a lot of pullback by Investors with their Rates, which are not pricing with what we see in this trading.  Many are raising their prices due to the volume, which we're hoping it will shake itself out within the next few days.  We have found that some Investors are still pricing well, so it's not everybody.  Just want to give you a heads up if you get quoted on pricing that seems to be a bit high.

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Daily Market Report 3/6/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The Nonfarm Payrolls Report released a much hotter number than expected (165k)  to 273 in February; also the previous 2 months were revised higher by 85k.  The Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%.  Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.3% MoM; however, it's YoY dropped from 3.1% to 3.0%.  Wholesale Inventories continued it's contraction trend, as it dropped 0.4% in January.  Stocks are Down a lot again today, as headlines dominate coronavirus news.  MBS is benefiting from the news, as investors move their investment to "safe havens".  Currently MBS is Up 38bps and testing it's ceiling again.  Mortgage Rates are improved today.  One thing to note, we're seeing Investors not moving on improvements, as indicated on the Charts, as there have been wide swings, and they're trying to protect themselves.  Expect them to work themselves thru it within a few days (assuming we maintain those levels).  Yields continue their freefall, and is sitting just above a new floor of support at 0.73%.

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Daily Market Report 3/5/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to 216k, which was lower by 3k from previous week's number.  The final Productivity number for Q4 came in at 1.2%, which was less by 0.2% in it's initial reading; whereas, Unit Labor Costs (for Q4) came in at 0.9%, which it's initial reading was 1.4%.  Factory Orders dropped by 0.5% in January.  Stocks have retreated today, after a large one day rally yesterday, and giving up a large portion of those gains today.  This is of course, on the news of the coronavirus, which is still shaking the Markets.  MBS is Up 22bps so far this morning, rebounding a bit after it's sell off late in the day.  Mortgage Rates will be better than yesterday's close, but may not be quite to the level we saw yesterday morning.  This could change, depending on how much stocks continue to drop.  Yields have slid down and are near it's floor of support (0.923%), and currently sit at 0.938%.

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Daily Market Report 3/4/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: The ADP Report came out with 183k new jobs in the private sector.  The whisper numbers were in the range of 170k-175k, so we did good!  The next 2 indexes are the Services Sector.  The Markit Services PMI remained Unchanged in Contraction Territory at 49.4 in February; while, ISM Non-Manufacturing went from 55.5% to 57.3% in February.  Later today, the Fed Beige Book will be released.  Stocks are Up so far this morning, as many Analysts are attributing it to Biden's favor-ability in the Democratic Primaries yesterday.  But MBS is not buying into this Stock rally, as they're currently Up 9bps.  Depending when Lenders came out with pricing, Lenders may have a little better pricing and some may be Unchanged from yesterday's pricing (you'll need to see the chart in video to better understand).  Yields broke below the 1% threshold yesterday and sit at .96% now, which next floor of support sits at .923%.

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Daily Market Report 3/3/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: There are no scheduled reports on the Economic Calendar today.  Stocks were initially Up this morning, but are now in the Red after a Big rally yesterday (DOW closed Up nearly 1300).  Central Banks around the globe have been announcing rate cuts due to economies adverse effects from the coronavirus, including our Fed cutting 0.5% today.  This is a rare move by the Fed, as they typically handle these rate movements during their FOMC, which the next on is on the 17th and 18th of this month.  MBS is currently Up 42bps, which is at the same point we were yesterday morning before the MBS dropped in the latter part of the day, as investment funds were moving back over to equities.  That had led to an intra-day re-price for the worse.  So, Mortgage rates are better than yesterday's close, but the same level of pricing as yesterday morning's pricing.  Yields are currently testing their floor of support at the 1.06% level (currently at the All Time level).

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Daily Market Report 3/2/20

http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com: Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.7 in February, which was down from 50.8 in January.  The Markit Services PMI dropped from 50.9% in January to 50.1% in February.  Construction Spending rose by 1.8% in January.  Stocks are trying to rebound after it's worse week since the Credit Crisis in 2008 last week.  There is talk that the Fed could potentially cut rates by 0.5% this month and again in Q2.  Personally, I don't think this will matter, and it's out-of-touch with reality, as this has nothing to do with resolving the coronavirus issue.  Meanwhile, MBS continues it's steep climb and is currently Up 41bps, as Mortgage Rates continue to Improve.  Yields have fallen more (down to just under 1.09%) and potentially could reach or fall below 1.0%.  We're currently at All Time Lows.

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